Thunderstorms continually redeveloped over a portion of northeast lower Michigan, resulting in flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms continually redeveloped over a portion of northeast lower Michigan, resulting in flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 2:29 PM EST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 329 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 ...Areas of fog tonight and more lake breeze convection Tuesday... High Impact Weather Potential...Isolated thunderstorms possible through this evening. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Convergent wind field surrounding a weak surface low south of Traverse City allowed showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop early this afternoon. This was also the area of greatest instability over northern Michigan. Activity expected to expand across more of interior northern Lower through late this afternoon as lake breeze convergent boundaries interact with a moist, unstable airmass with MLCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg. Satellite shows a convergent axis developing over eastern Upper, so some showers also popping up there. Main limiting factors to more organized convection today are marginal deep layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, do not expect any severe activity, but would rule out a couple stronger cells capable of producing localized gusty winds and/or small hail. Convective activity will diminish this evening with the loss of daytime instability and the arrival of slightly drier air encroaching from the north. Surface winds will likely become calm across the majority of northern Michigan overnight. Combined with skies partially clearing from the north and plenty of residual low level moisture (especially over areas that see some rain this afternoon), this will allow for efficient radiational cooling and likely areas of fog again. In fact, expecting a better shot at more widespread coverage tonight as compared to last night, given less cloud cover over the region. Wouldn't be surprised if some locally dense fog or even low stratus develops, but evening shift will have to monitor extent and magnitude of fog/stratus potential for tonight. Temperatures expected to drop into the 50s over eastern Upper, mid 50s to low 60s over northern Lower. Forecast for Tuesday the last couple days had been almost solidly dry, but latest model runs have been trending towards some afternoon pop up showers. Very little synoptic support, but with weak low level flow over the region again, lake breezes are expected to develop by midday. Instability will likely be limited to around 500 J/kg or less, so thinking mainly showers but wouldn't rule out an isolated storm or two. CAMs as well as NAM, GFS, and Canadian all picking up nicely on the lake breeze development and convection potential over interior eastern Upper and northern Lower. Have included only slight chance PoPs for now, but later shifts may need to bump up to chance PoPs. Highs will climb into the upper 70s north to low 80s south. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 ...Wet weather expected for midweek period... High Impact Weather Potential: Increasing thunderstorm threat for Wednesday/Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall potential is there (marginal excessive rain risk from SPC)...and severe storm potential as well. Pattern Forecast: Current large scale pattern features an impressively deep and climatologically unusual (-4 standard deviations at its core) upper low over Hudson Bay...and another area of upper level troughing extending from the Gulf of Alaska south along the Pacific Northwest coastline. Ridge axis between these features from the Four Corners region all the way up into northern Alaska. Flow across the CONUS will be mainly zonal across the northern half through midweek...with a broad area of weak flow/ higher heights predominant across the southern half of the CONUS. While upper level flow flattens out across the Great Lakes...a cold front associated with the Hudson Bay vortex will advance south and into Michigan Tuesday night. What baroclinicity remains with this boundary will help form a new warm/stationary front that will lie across Lower Michigan at least into the first part of Thursday... with perhaps some frontal waves rippling along the boundary. Primary Forecast Concerns: Boundary sagging into the forecast area from the north interacting with a southwesterly low level jet emanating from the central Plains/Midwest and into Wisconsin/western Upper Michigan will be a likely focus for convective development Tuesday night across the upper Midwest. Boundary itself may provide for some shower development across Upper Michigan Tuesday night... but precip threat associated with MCS remnants looks better Wednesday morning (depending of course on where convection initiates upstream Tuesday evening). Not surprisingly there are mixed signals with regard to where heavier precipitation may fall...which will also likely impact where the warm front/differential heating boundary sets up...which would serve as a focus for additional development during the day. Severe threat will all depend on overall convective/stability evolution...but heavy downpours likely with precipitable water values above 1.50 inches expected into Wednesday evening. Most of the potentially impactful weather expected to be through the area by Thursday morning as high pressure building in from the north nudges the low level baroclinic zone south of the state. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Long range guidance are in good agreement with a positive phase PNA pattern remaining through the long range forecast. This pattern should give northern Michigan normal to just above normal daytime/nighttime temperatures and periodic chances of showers (possibly some thunder) as shortwave troughs ride the eastern periphery of the ridge over the Great Lakes region with accompanied plumes of ample moisture. The tail end of a cold front associated with a low pressure system near Hudson Bay may also brush the forecast area late Saturday/early Sunday...providing additional chances for some shower/thunder activity. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Showers now popping up south of Traverse City in convergent flow pattern around a weak surface low. With increasing instability, this activity is expected to expand across a good portion of northern Lower MI this afternoon, most concentrated over the interior region given more stable air coming off the lakes. Can't rule out a few thunderstorms as well. Activity will wane this evening as instability drops and drier air pushes in. The low levels will remain fairly moist, however, setting the region up for additional fog development overnight as winds become calm and skies partially clear. Expecting somewhat better coverage of the fog tonight as opposed to last night when it was limited to far northern Lower, so it may impact all terminals to some extent. Low confidence in how far visibilities may drop, but expect APN and PLN to be most impacted again. There might be some sneaky low stratus that develops late tonight as well. Winds light and variable Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Quiet marine conditions expected to continue through Tuesday night with light low level winds over the region. Generally northerly wind direction developing tonight, followed by lake breeze development during the day Tuesday. Winds will begin to gradually ramp up a bit late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next stronger system approaches. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...TJL AVIATION...MEK MARINE...MEK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 358 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041- 042-111100- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa- Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim- Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford- Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco- Gladwin-Arenac- 358 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan... eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will continue through early evening over portions of northern lower Michigan, mainly south of M-72. Severe storms are not expected. Locally dense fog will be possible overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall is possible...and there is a risk for severe thunderstorms primarily across northern Lower Michigan. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. && For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. JPB
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two separate rain gauges in the Lincoln area measured around seven inches of rain in a three-hour period. Numerous roads in the Lincoln area were inundated and closed for part of the evening, including Gehres and Barlow Roads. A number of basements were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 717752.