A strong cold front moving through the Upper Great Lakes generated moderate to heavy lake effect snow and considerable blowing snow for the several northwest wind snow belt locations near Lake Superior from the 1st into the 2nd.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A strong cold front moving through the Upper Great Lakes generated moderate to heavy lake effect snow and considerable blowing snow for the several northwest wind snow belt locations near Lake Superior from the 1st into the 2nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:54 PM EST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1154 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a shortwave over the lower Great Lakes with another shortwave over the Canadian Prairies this morning. This shortwave quickly moves to the upper Great Lakes this afternoon and this shortwave will help to dig a trough over the area through Wed. There is also a shot of colder air that moves into the area with this digging trough. Nam shows some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture remaining over the area through tonight. Temperatures will cool and lake effect snow will get going, but looking at bufkit soundings, there is some drier air coming into the low levels with inverted-v soundings in the low levels which cut into the snow amounts a bit. DGZ also falls late tonight into Wed and this will also allow the lake effect snow to taper off for amounts. Will still see 2-3 inches of snow tonight and another 2 inches of snow for Wed. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast for temperatures or weather. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 The main issue through the end of the work week will be continued lake effect snow for mainly west to northwest wind snow belts with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Wednesday night through Friday night: The CWA will be on the southern edge of broad upper-level troughing over the eastern U.S. while the western U.S. remains under broad upper level ridging. The trough over the eastern U.S. will help to keep 850mb temperatures generally between -18C and -22C, which will be more than enough to keep lake effect potential in the forecast. Winds through Friday night will generally be out of the west to west-northwest, which would keep the lake effect snow potential over the Keweenaw Peninsula and areas mainly to the east of Munising. For the most part, temperature inversions will be around 3kft with a fairly shallow DGZ, which should keep snowflake size small. The main impact from that will be reduced visibility. There are a couple shortwaves that are expected to slide across the area, with the first one expected Wednesday night and the next expected Thursday night. Snowfall intensity and flake size will increase during these time periods as inversion heights jump up to around 6kft with added lift and lake induced instability. Generally, expecting about 1 to 3 inches each day in the west to west-northwest wind snow belts, with 3 to 5 inches possible Wednesday night and again Thursday night with each shortwave passage. Areas outside of the aforementioned lake effect snow belts can expect partly cloudy skies with no more than flurries through this time period. Saturday: A surface high pressure ridge will slide across the Upper Great Lakes region along with drier air, which will help to reduce lake effect snow chances. There may still be a few light snow showers over the west to west-northwest wind snow belt, but the intensity should be drastically reduced. The remainder of the area will continue to see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Saturday night through Sunday: A quick moving low pressure system is expected to slide through the Upper Great Lakes region, bringing a more widespread, mainly light, snowfall to the area. At this point, with quicker movement and limited moisture, wouldn't expect to see much more than 1 to 3 inches across the area. The next area of concern in the extended will be the potential for a stronger winter storm system to slide through the area late Monday night through Wednesday. There, of course, is a lot of uncertainty on timing and details of this system with it being so far out, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on as the EC/GEM/GFS are showing fairly similar tracks and intensities over the past couple model runs. At this point, have put likely pops in vs. definite pops that the model consensus gave. This is largely due to changes in timing of the precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1153 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 MVFR conditions will give way to IFR and possibly LIFR conditions late tonight with the arrival of a cold front as vsbys fall in lake effect snow in a n-nw wind flow. IFR conditions will likely last longer at KCMX site in exposed nw flow. Conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR by late Wed morning/afternoon as drier air works in behind the frontal passage and winds back more westerly. KCMX will see conditions lower back down to IFR Wed evening in lake effect snow and blowing snow as another disturbance moves across the area and a westerly flow develops. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 311 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 Wednesday through Friday, expect the north-northwest winds to ramp up as cold air advection increases across the lake. Wind speeds are generally expected to be 20 to 30 knots with gale force gusts possible, especially late Wednesday through Friday. On Saturday as cold air advection shifts east of the region and surface high pressure drops southeast, expect winds to lessen and back to the southwest. These are the strongest winds in this forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Voss MARINE...07
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 347 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-011200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 347 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 /247 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2017/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST UPPER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING WHITE PINE...ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A BRIEF BURST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MUNISING...INCLUDING AT GRAND MARAIS AND DEER PARK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE. THE PUBLIC MAY ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS AT OUR WEBPAGE...FACEBOOK PAGE...OR ON TWITTER. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-011200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 347 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 /247 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2017/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-011200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 347 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. KEC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The observer ten miles south of Grand Marais measured nearly 18 inches of lake effect snow over a two-day period. Northwest winds gusting near 30 mph at times also caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow as well.
The observer in Herman measured six inches of lake effect snow in 24 hours.
The observer in Newberry measured 6.3 inches of lake effect snow in 24 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 681769, 681772, 681771.