NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 9:44 PM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 9:44 PM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1044 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will bring rain, ice and snow to the region into
Saturday with the biggest impacts north of the MA Turnpike and
especially near the NH Border. Low pressure moves off to the
east Saturday night. High pressure brings dry weather Sunday and
Monday. A storm approaches from Texas on Tuesday. Another storm
may affect Southern New England on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
*** Accumulating Sleet Expected For Most Overnight ***
*** Sleet/Snow Mixes Changes Back to Heavy Snow AM ***
Counteracting forces have moved over the region this evening in
the form of a strengthening LLJ and mid lvl f-gen. This has had
two impacts, increasing precipitation rates across the region
while warmer air in a narrow layer from H85-H75 continues to
push further N along the LLJ. These two are clashing such that
dominant precipitation type is now a mix of sleet/snow across
extreme N MA and sleet/rain mixing further S. In other words,
a lot of accumulating sleet now as heights continue to crash
thanks to the dynamic cooling processes. These two will continue
to hold each other in check through much of the overnight hours,
so continue to expect hazardous/slippery conditions under
accumulating sleet and ice.
By morning with the low pres making its closest pass the
influence of cold conveyor along with rapid dropping heights
expect a change back to all snow with higher ratios from N-S,
and it is this point which many locations especially N of the
Mass Pike will see the bulk of their accumulations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***Mixed Ptype will likely flip to a period of moderate to
heavy snow Saturday morning especially northeast MA***
***Greatest concern is risk for downed tree limbs scattered power
outages north of route 2 from the wet snow***
Very interesting setup on Saturday as deep closed upper level low
slowly passes south of southern New England. This results in a
Trowal structure and a very well developed CCB. All the models
agree on the warm mid level nose quickly eroding from north to south
between 10 to 15z. Given the setup, may see rain/ice flip to a
period of moderate to heavy snow even across western MA/northern
CT. However, the most impressive area will be across northeast
and even parts of southeast MA where precip persists longer.
This is where strongest easterly LLJ and most sustained period
of forcing will be located. Some of the guidance is quite
impressive with this Saturday morning, so concerned for 1 to 2
inch per hour snowfall rates into mid afternoon. The biggest
uncertainty is how fast does this mid level warm layer erode,
because a few hours of timing difference will have a big impact
on accums. We broke things down a bit more below.
1) Far North Central and Northeast MA north of Route 2 near the
NH Border:
A mixture of snow and sleet expected tonight will change to all
snow early Saturday morning and probably fall moderate to heavy
at times into mid afternoon. Appears snow amounts may be less
than we were originally thinking this evening with sleet mixing
in at times, but comma head may over perform based on the
latest high resolution guidance. Therefore, still feel the
potential is there for 10+ inches of snow near the NH border.
This certainly will bring the risk for downed tree limbs and
scattered power outages.
2) South of Route 2 To the MA Pike:
Warm layer will mainly result in sleet with pockets of high
terrain freezing rain and even some plain rain in the lower
elevations. May see an inch or two of sleet occur and some snow
may mix back in when precip rates increase. Ptype should change
back to snow by early to Sat morning with the comma head and
continue into the afternoon, especially in northeast MA. Winter
Storm Warnings in effect for 4 to 10 inches of snow with the
highest amounts towards route 2. If higher snow amounts are
realized downed tree limbs and scattered power outages will be
possible.
3) South of MA Pike:
Mainly rain and sleet tonight, but pockets of freezing rain
across the high terrain. Ptype should change over to a period of
snow across eastern MA and possible northern CT/RI although a
bit more uncertain in that region. A few inches of accumulation
are certainly possible Saturday morning into the afternoon.
4) Wind Headlines:
Wind advisories posted along and southeast of Boston to Providence
corridor. Northeast wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph anticipated with a
bit stronger across the Cape given LLJ. Have upgraded Nantucket to
a high wind warning as they will be closed to the jet core.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview...
Upper level progressive pattern will remain across the lower 48,
though will see a couple of southern stream short waves will push
toward New England, one during Mon night/Tue timeframe then a second
toward the end of the long term. Long range models signaling cutoff
H5 low pres developing as it crosses the upper Plains around the
middle of next week, then slows down as trough digs by around next
Friday from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast as long wave ridge
builds east of the Rockies by late next week. This will slow
migrating weather systems down, so may see period of unsettled
conditions late next week
12Z model suite and ensembles in general agreement with progression
of weather systems across the U.S. through Wed, then as the long
wave pattern amplifies across the central and western U.S. late
next, looks like weather systems slow down. Appears that the 12Z op
runs of the GFS and ECMWF picking up on the deepening pattern and
subsequent slowing of surface systems, while the GGEM remains on the
fast side of the guidance. With this evolving pattern, have lower
than average confidence with the latter portion of the forecast.
Details...
Saturday night...Moderate to high confidence.
Low pressure will push E along the 40N parallel Sat night. May
see some precip lingering along the E coast as the GGEM and
ECMWF both signaling inverted trough lingering close to the E
Mass coast. Held on to likely POPs early, then gradually
tapering off by around midnight or so. As colder air works
southward, will see rain mix with or change to snow before
ending. Will not see much in the way of snow accumulations as
temps will remain in the 32-35 degree range so will melt as it
falls.
Will see leftover NE gusts up to 35-50 kt along the E coast
through 02Z-03Z, highest across Cape Cod and the islands, then
should slowly diminish overnight. Skies will begin to clear
across western areas after midnight.
As colder air filters in, expect temps to fall back to the mid-
upper 20s well inland, ranging to 30-35 along the immediate
coast.
Sunday-Monday...Moderate to high confidence.
Noting some amplification of the upper pattern across the lower
48 during this timeframe, but remains progressive. N-S
elongated high pressure extending from Hudson Bay to the SE U.S.
coast early Sunday will slowly shift E through Monday, with dry
conditions and cooler than normal daytime highs both days.
As the ridge axis pushes offshore Monday, will start to see mid
and high clouds increase from W-E. Some question as to the
onset of precip from next approaching system. Looks like the 18Z
GFS run has slowed down, lining up better with the 12Z GGEM and
ECMWF through 00Z Tue.
Monday night through Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Low pressure moves out of the Ohio valley, with leading edge of
light precip pushing into western areas by around midnight.
System moves steadily eastward, but best mid level dynamics/H5
short wave does not arrive until 12Z Tue. Will also see another
slug of good QPF, with forecasted amounts on order of 0.75 to
1.2 inches. Noting some instability passing just S of the region
Tue afternoon/evening so have left mention of thunder out but
something to keep an eye on.
Pretty strong low level E-SE jet passes S of the region, but
could see winds pick up along the S coast, Cape Cod and the
islands Tue afternoon/evening with gusts up to 25-30 kt.
Should see low push near the Cape by around 06Z Wed with back
edge of precip following overnight.
Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Looks like another brief break between weather systems, so
should be mainly dry as weak high pressure at the surface and
aloft moves across the region. Temps continue to run a few
degrees below seasonal normals.
Wednesday night through Friday...Low confidence.
H5 cutoff low closes off with digging long wave trough across
the Mississippi valley by 12Z Thursday with leading mid level
ridging crossing the region. So, may see dry conditions holding
early Wed night before leading edge of next precip package
pushes into western areas. Not a lot of confidence with the
onset of the precip, which may hold off until around or after
midnight.
Noting general model agreement on the 12Z GFS and ECMWF models
in slowing the long wave trough to the W of New England through
Fri, with the GGEM a fast outlier at this point. This will put
the region into a good S flow at the surface and aloft, bringing
a shot of tropical moisture up the coast. GFS indicate PWATs
increasing to 1.2 to 1.5 inches during Fri, so could see some
downpours as well. Still noting timing issues, lending to lower
confidence at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday/...
Tonight and Saturday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions
persist with local LIFR conditions overnight into Sat morning.
Ptype mainly rain and some sleet south of Pike tonight, with
snow and sleet north of the pike. Pockets of freezing rain are
possible across higher terrain.
Mixed precip changes to a period of moderate to heavy snow
across N central and NE Mass during the early morning hours of
Sat, then changes to light snow during Sat from N-S across most
of the region with colder air working in as winds shift to a
more northerly direction during the midday and afternoon hours
Sat.
NE winds increase late tonight and especially Saturday on the
coastal plain with gusts of 30 to 40 knots, and a bit stronger
across Cape Cod and Nantucket.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Biggest uncertainty
on snow transitions to sleet and perhaps rain tonight. Then
when mixed precip changes back to snow Sat AM.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...Moderate confidence.
Expect areas of MVFR-IFR CIGS across central and eastern areas
through around midnight Sat night, then should improve to VFR
during the early morning hours. Otherwise mainly VFR. May see
brief patchy fog develop across inland valleys toward daybreak.
N-NE winds gusting to 35-50 kt along the coast, highest across
outer Cape Cod and the islands early, then will diminish
gradually after midnight though will still gust to around 25 kt
after midnight as they back to N. MVFR CIGS may linger through
the night across E slopes of the Berkshires.
Sunday-Monday...Moderate to high confidence.
VFR conditions. N-NW winds gusting to 15-20 kt during Sunday
across higher terrain and along immediate coast. Mid and high
level clouds move in during Monday.
Monday night-Tuesday...Low to moderate confidence.
Periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in -RA. Brief -PL/-FZRA across E
slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester hills late Mon night into
Tue morning. Periods of RA/+RA during Tue along the S coast.
Precip slowly tapers off should taper off Tue night. E-SE winds
gusting to 25-30 kt along S coast late Tue/Tue night.
Wednesday...Low confidence mainly for timing.
Mainly VFR early Wed, then CIGS/VSBYS may lower to MVFR in -RA
Wed afternoon/night.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday/...
Tonight and Saturday...High confidence. Winds and seas rapidly
increase late tonight and especially on Saturday with low
pressure passing south of the waters. Northeast wind gusts of 35
to 50 knots expected. Gale and Storm Warnings in effect, with
strongest winds from Nantucket points south and east on
Saturday. Seas will build to around 15 feet across our eastern
waters on Saturday.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...Moderate to high confidence.
Expect NE winds gusting to 35-50 kt early, highest over the
eastern outer waters, then should slowly diminish after
midnight. Seas ranging up to 14-16 ft, then will slowly subside.
Storm warnings continue through around midnight, while gales
continue through most of the night. Local visibility
restrictions in rain and snow, which will improve from W-E
around or after midnight.
Sunday-Monday...High confidence.
Winds back to N Sunday, gusting up to 30-35 kt early, then will
diminish as they shift to NW Sun afternoon. Seas 6-10 ft early
will continue to subside as winds lower. Any gales early should
lower to small crafts which will continue into Sunday night.
Good visibilities.
Monday-Tuesday...Low to moderate confidence.
Light NW winds on Mon will shift to S-SE Mon night. Seas should
subside below 5 ft by midday Mon on the eastern outer waters.
Any leftover small crafts should end during Mon. Good
visibilities through Mon.
Winds shift to S-SE Mon night, gusting to 25-30 kt by 12Z Tue
mainly over the southern outer waters, then spread across the
remaining open waters on Tue. Seas build up to 6-10 ft on the
outer waters during Tue. Local reduced visibilities in areas of
light rain Mon night and Tue.
Wednesday...Low confidence.
NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Seas up to 10-15 kt, highest on
the eastern open waters. Brief reduced visibilities early, then
should improve. May lower again Wed night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Winds, seas and surge will continue to build this evening along
our southeast coastal areas. The observed surge is running
higher than forecast at Boston and so have opted to expand the
Coastal Flood Advisory already in effect for Nantucket Harbor to
the Plymouth County coast. We now are projecting the storm surge
to increase to near a foot by the time of the early morning high
tide along the Plymouth County coast and probably a little over
a foot in Nantucket Harbor. This is considerably higher than
either ETSS or ESTOFS guidance.
The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for east and
northeast facing shorelines south of Boston for the Saturday
afternoon high tide. Anticipate a surge of 1.5 to 2 feet along
the Plymouth County coast, Nantucket and the east/northeast
sides of Martha's Vineyard. Waves of about 10 to 15 feet are
expected into Massachusetts Bay and 14 to 18 feet east of Cape
Cod and east of Nantucket during the Saturday afternoon period.
The combination of surge and waves will likely cause areas of
minor coastal flooding from Hull to Plymouth to Dennis,
Nantucket Harbor area, and possibly at some spots along the
Vineyard shore. In addition, we expect some erosion as well,
especially along the ocean side of Cape Cod and the east side of
Nantucket. We don't yet have the confidence to issue an
Advisory for the coastline north of Boston where we anticipate
the surge to be more on the order of 1.0 to 1.5 feet but will
continue to monitor trends there. At the very least, there
could be some isolated splashover north of Boston at the time
of high tide but do not expect any significant impact.
We may need to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for portions of
the Massachusetts east coast for the early Sunday morning high
tide but have not done so yet, since there is enough time for
changes in the intensity and timing of the storm. As of now,
winds do not really turn offshore until after the time of the
high tide Sunday morning and hence may see a residual surge of
1.0 to 1.5 feet. The surge in addition to a long period swell
may be enough to cause an additional round minor coastal
flooding and erosion for east, northeast, and north facing
shorelines south of Boston. Experimental wave run-up guidance is
also showing a risk for erosion and minor overwash along the
Plymouth County coast during the Sunday early morning high tide.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ022-023.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ013-
016>021.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
MAZ019.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
MAZ019-022>024.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ002>008-
010-012-014-015-026.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ013-016.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for MAZ009-
011.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ024.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
MAZ024.
RI...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for RIZ008.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for RIZ002>007.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for RIZ001.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ232.
Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ233>235-237.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ231.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ236.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night
for ANZ250-251.
Storm Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/Doody
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...