Thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall that caused flash flooding across Johnson, Magoffin, and Morgan counties during the late afternoon and early evening hours of July 28th, 2017. The hardest hit areas were Cannel City and Adele in Morgan County where multiple roads were flooded, several water rescues occurred, and structures were inundated.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall that caused flash flooding across Johnson, Magoffin, and Morgan counties during the late afternoon and early evening hours of July 28th, 2017. The hardest hit areas were Cannel City and Adele in Morgan County where multiple roads were flooded, several water rescues occurred, and structures were inundated.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 1:53 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 Precip has picked up along and just ahead of the cold front which has entered the far northern part of the JKL forecast area early this afternoon, but heaviest rainfall in our area still appears to be not too much more than an inch in an hour. Have updated the timing of best precip potential based on radar trends and latest model runs, with high POP cutting off from northwest to southeast during the late afternoon and early evening. UPDATE Issued at 1049 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 Main issue continues to be the concern for heavy rain and flash flooding. Most of the synoptic set-up is favorable for locally very heavy rainfall. Precipitable water is high (~2"), steering winds and storm motion will be slow (~15 kts or less), upper level diffluence will be increasing today due to a shortwave trough rotating through a northeast CONUS trough, and CAPE profiles are tall and thin. Much of the area was primed with rain in the last 24 hours. However, we are still socked in under clouds, and significant destabilization is lacking so far today. If we can muster enough instability and start seeing more significant convection, our Flash Flood Watch may need expansion. At the present it already encompasses the locations which saw the heaviest rain in the last 24 hours, and will let it ride. UPDATE Issued at 819 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 Convection filled in during the overnight hours, with some training taking place across far eastern Kentucky. The last few runs of the HRRR have been playing up convection across the east through the day, and given the recent priming, have hoisted a flash flood watch until 8 pm this evening. Also freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points based on the latest trends in observations. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 The latest surface map features a cold front draped east to west near the Ohio River. PWATs are currently running around 2 inches across eastern Kentucky, with some shower and thunderstorm activity ongoing across portions of the area. Aloft, a short wave trough was rotating south out of the western Great Lakes region. The models are in good agreement with this short wave trough turning more southeastward as it encounters flow around an upper level ridge axis centered near the southern Plains. This will allow the cold front to pass south across our area through the day and into this evening. Expect another day of unsettled weather, with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding the main concern. Confidence in where the axis of heaviest rainfall will set up remains on the lower side. So, will only highlight the threat in the HWO. Another more limiting factor today will be instability, given the amount of cloud cover in place. Highs will be around 80. POPs will diminish from northwest to southeast this evening and into Saturday, as the trough axis and deeper moisture exit to our east. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s north of I-64, to the mid 60s near the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Some showers will continue to threaten far southeastern Kentucky through the morning hours, before high pressure builds in across the area. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the upper 70s, with dew points down into the lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 The period begins with an upper level trough continuing to dig SE across the east coast through a good portion of the week. This will combine with a surface high that crests to the NW across the Upper Mississippi River Valley to lead to a extended period of below to near normal temperatures for this time of year. The best reflection of below normal heights for this time of year reside in the 700 to 850 mb levels at 3 plus standard deviations below normal giving way to the aforementioned cooler temperatures, and lesser but still noticeable at the 500 mb level at around 2 standard deviations below normal. Also given the clockwise flow (north to northeast winds) around the surface high the region will experience a welcome decrease in moisture and therefore a break in the sticky airmass normally seen this time of year. This will all combine to lead to a 4 to 5 day period of dry weather. The pattern will begin to swing back toward summer to round out the period. This as the previously mentioned surface high progresses southeast and becomes less defined. Also a upper level trough will sink SE toward the Ohio Valley leading to better chances of POPs. Thinking the slight chance of thunderstorms picked up by the blended guidance is sufficient at this point. High temperatures to round out the period will be near normal for this time of year, but the moisture/muggy conditions will creep back into the region hints with PWATs climbing back above 1 inch by Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 A cold front was near I-64 at the start of the period, moving southeast. Showers and t'storms were occurring near and ahead of the front, with the greatest activity near the front. MVFR conditions were widespread, with the heaviest precip resulting in IFR or worse conditions. The front and precip will continue moving slowly through the area, exiting into VA late this evening. Even though most precip will be tapering off this evening, conditions are not expected to show any long term improvement until Saturday. In fact, an overall lowering of ceilings is expected overnight. VFR should return generally from northwest to southeast over the course of the day Saturday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ086>088-104- 106>120. && UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 KYZ086>088-104-106>120-291100- Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee- Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will bring a threat of flash flooding today, especially at locations that have seen significant rainfall over the past 24 hours. Additionally, a few thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding. KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-291100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, and Williamsburg 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially at locations that have seen significant rainfall over the past 24 hours. Additionally, a few thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding. GEOGERIAN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highway 134 and Camp Branch Road were both impassable due to flash flooding in the Adele community. At least one structure was inundated.
Water rescues took place and structures were inundated on Railroad Fork and Prater Road in Cannel City. Highway 191 was impassable due to flooding.
Emergency management and local broadcast media reported several instances of flowing water and corresponding road closures in and around Salyersville. Flowing water of nearly 6 inches was observed flowing across roads in town, while Kentucky Highway 2019 was closed as 8 to 10 inches of water ran over it. Kentucky Highway 30 was also inundated with flowing water along with numerous other low lying areas near streams.
Flooding of low lying areas occurred along Johnson Creek near Netty and Johnson Fork near Epson. There were also a few inches of water observed flowing over the Mountain Parkway.
A motorist was rescued from a vehicle near Denver that had become stranded in flood waters.
Two roads were closed due to flash flooding near the Oil Springs Fire Department.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 704911, 704913, 704914, 704917, 704918, 704919.