A prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall accompanied a slow-moving cold front, beginning on the afternoon of December 22 and lasting into the afternoon on December 23. This caused sporadic road closures during the morning of the 23rd as high water inundated low spots on a few area roadways.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall accompanied a slow-moving cold front, beginning on the afternoon of December 22 and lasting into the afternoon on December 23. This caused sporadic road closures during the morning of the 23rd as high water inundated low spots on a few area roadways.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 23, 7:55 AM EST, 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 750 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2017 The surface wave continues to move across the region and appears to be across the southeastern counties at this time. The heavier showers are moving more rapidly east and southeast at this time and appear to be located near the surface wave and associated cold front. This is leading to a sharper temperature gradient between the central parts of the cwa and some valleys that have experienced downsloping and warm advection nearer the VA border. Wind, temperatures, and dewpoints were updated based on recent observations, with little additional changes at this time. QPF for the 7AM to 1PM EST period was lowered a bit in the north and raised slightly in the south based on recent radar trends. With the heavier showers moving to the east and southeast, it is likely that the flash flood watch may be able to be cancelled early. Rises on some areas rivers, especially the downstream KY basin point of Ravenna and the Red River at Clay City may rise to near bankfull. Dry weather preceding this rain event has precluded more substantial rises across the area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 355 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2017 Steadier rain showers have temporarily tapered off across most of the southeastern part of the region, with moderate to locally heavy rain showers from south central KY to portions of northeast Ky or near the surface frontal zone that resides across the OH Valley region. A wave of surface low pressure is moving along the front which has led to the axis of steadier showers moving north with south to southeast downslope low level flow having been noted on VWP for the past few hours. This flow is starting to veer to more of a southwesterly direction and supports the majority of the model guidance bringing the steadier showers back into southeast KY through sunrise. Some of this rain could be locally heavy especially just north of the low track from the Lake Cumberland Region to near Cave Run Lake per radar trends and trends in recent convective allowing models. There has recently been some isolated lighting activity west of the Bowling Green area and in western middle TN. With the axis of heavier rain shifting further north, opted to add Wolfe, Montgomery, Bath, Menifee, and Powell counties to the FFA and drop some of the counties in the Cumberland Valley which will experience less rainfall today. A broad trough encompasses much of the Conus at this point. Although a more subtle mid level shortwave is expected to track through this trough and over the area early in the period, the main shortwave trough is expected to move into the Lower OH Valley this morning reaching the middle OH Valley early this afternoon and then the mid Atlantic states while dampening by this evening. The deeper moisture should depart to the east by early afternoon as it does so while the corresponding surface low moves into the mid Atlantic states by that time. Cold advection today should lead to the warmest temperatures between sunrise and 10 or 11 AM with temperatures falling well into the 40s by late this afternoon. Lingering low level moisture and an uslope component may lead to drizzle lingering well into the evening at least for the far southeast. Some of this could measure. This surface low should continue departing to the north and east tonight as surface high pressure noses into the OH Valley. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough and associated weak clipper like surface low is moving through the northern Rockies at present. That system should reach the Plains tonight and be approaching the Mid MS Valley by dawn on Sunday. This shortwave trough will approach the region on Sunday. At the same time, the model consensus is for surface pressures to lower during the day on Sunday across the Southern Appalachian region with a surface low developing and tracking toward southeast PA by the end of the period. The shortwave moving into OH Valley late in the period will mark the leading edge of an airmass more typical of winter and cold advection will begin as the low moves northeast of the period late in the day. Lapse rates should steepen toward the end of the period with moisture depth increasing while temperatures in saturated or near saturated layer dropping. This should lead to initial light rain or drizzle transitioning more toward rain showers with possible ice introduction into the clouds. Some snow may mix in for the far north and highest terrain near the VA border around or shortly after sunset on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 310 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2017 Models are trending towards more QPF with the clipper system Sunday night. This may give a few areas, especially on the higher ridges and north of I-64, a better chance of seeing closer to an inch of snowfall. Precipitation will continue to transition over to snow Sunday evening with all locations mainly snow by midnight. The increased potential snowfall will lead to a better chance for slick roads Sunday night as temperatures fall well into the 20s by Christmas morning. Winds will also be quite gusty through the overnight period with wind gusts up to 30 mph likely. This may actually help to remove some of the moisture off the roads by Christmas morning with the dry advection ongoing. However, there could still be some lingering slick spots. With the top of the moist layer falling right into the best dendritic growth region by Christmas morning, we could continue to deal with a few flurries until the last of the cloud cover erodes during the morning hours. High pressure will then build in for Christmas day, but conditions will be much colder with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s. Monday night looks to be quite chilly, but will be contingent on enough clearing as a weak clipper system will drop southeast across the area and could bring an uptick in cloud cover. This system remains moisture starved, so cloud cover may not have a significant impact. However, temperatures (exactly how cold they get) will be highly dependent on the cloud cover. High pressure will then build in briefly for the middle of the week before the weather turns unsettled again for Thursday and beyond. Models remain all over the place regarding a storm system for Thursday and Friday, but models have been trending colder with this system, supporting the potential for more snow. The 00z GFS shows a persistent period of overrunning precipitation across eastern Kentucky from Thursday through early Saturday with a period of freezing rain, sleet, and eventually snow all in play. This solution would be impactful for eastern Kentucky. However, GFS ensemble members should a great deal of spread, showing little support for the operational run. The 00z ECMWF solution would offer mainly all snow, but a shorter duration snow event with more of an open wave crossing the region. At this point, still a bit of spread in the models, but confidence continues to grow in the chances for at least some wintry precipitation late next week. We will continue to highlight the potential in the HWO. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2017 A surface low is moving across southeast Ky with a cold front also slipping south and east. The steadier rain showers during the period will generally be southeast of the TAF sites though in rain and low stratus/fog MVFR and even some IFR lingers at all sites. SYM and SJS will initially have ceilings near airport mins. The steadier rain should taper off by 18Z, but as cold advection continues most locations should experience ceilings deteriorate to or remain in the IFR range for the first 6 hours of the period. Southern locations should generally remain in the IFR range for ceilings through the period with some MVFR working into KSYM and perhaps KSME at times during the last 12 hours of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ050-051- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-108-111-114. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 321 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 KYZ044-052-085>088-104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-241130- Fleming-Rowan-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson- Magoffin-Floyd-Breathitt-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin- Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Morehead, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 321 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A prolonged period of rainfall may lead to moderate rises on area streams and rivers today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Snow showers are likely on Sunday night. Accumulations should mainly be in the dusting to one half of an inch range with a few ridgetops possibly receiving localized amounts of one inch. Snow or mixed wintry precipitation is possible from late Wednesday night through Friday. Due to low confidence in the potential track and evolution of this system, timing of precipitation type and the extent of any accumulations is also low. Monitor later forecasts on this potential winter system. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. KYZ050-051-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-108-111-114-241130- Montgomery-Bath-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski- Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Wolfe-Lee-Owsley- Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Campton, Beattyville, and Booneville 321 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Moderate to heavy showers could result in localized instances of high water this morning. The prolonged period of rainfall should lead to rises to near bankfull on some area streams and rivers today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Snow showers are likely on Sunday night. Accumulations should mainly be in the dusting to one half of an inch range with a few ridgetops possibly receiving localized amounts of one inch. Snow or mixed wintry precipitation is possible from late Wednesday night through Friday. Due to low confidence in the potential track and evolution of this system, timing of precipitation type and the extent of any accumulations is also low. Monitor later forecasts on this potential winter system. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. JP/KAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Local emergency management reported high water forcing the closure of several streets in Brodhead, including Church Street and Burton Lane.
The department of highways reported high water blocking a portion of Kentucky Highway 1098 southeast of Jackson.
A department of highways official reported high water across Kentucky Highway 52 east of Beattyville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 726340, 726339, 726338.