A broad shortwave trough lifted out of the southern High Plains with two distinct jet streaks across Kansas and Oklahoma. Severe parameters were just enough to produce two tornadoes near Scott State Lake and one report of large hail and high wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A broad shortwave trough lifted out of the southern High Plains with two distinct jet streaks across Kansas and Oklahoma. Severe parameters were just enough to produce two tornadoes near Scott State Lake and one report of large hail and high wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 5:00 PM CST, 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 600 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Thunderstorm development is likely across portions of the Western High Plains tonight as an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft prevails across the region. A frontal boundary, now bisecting southwest Kansas into north central Kansas, is projected to lift slightly back to the north this evening giving way to a south to southeast upslope flow across southwest and central Kansas. Meanwhile, an attendant dryline stretching southward across extreme southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle is not expected to move much. Moisture will lift back into the area ahead of the dryline with surface dewpoints climbing up into the lower to mid 60s(F). Steepening low/mid level lapse rates, increasing instability with MLCAPE values upward of 2000 J/kg, and favorable shear will contribute to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. The best chance for storms will be in an axis of increased convergence associated with the frontal boundary/dryline late this afternoon. Timing and placement of initial development will be dependent on how soon the prevailing cloud deck erodes and how far the boundary moves in that time frame. A +70kt upper level jet and favorable 0-6km shear will increase the potential for rotating supercells, and subsequent severe storms. Large damaging hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat while a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A cold front will push through western Kansas tonight allowing for cooler air to filter southward into far western portions of the state. Look for lows well down into the 50s(F) across west central and portions of southwest Kansas with the 60s(F) likely further east toward south central Kansas. A much cooler air mass spreading across western Kansas will limit highs climbing above the 60s(F) across west central and much of southwest Kansas Tuesday with the 70s(F) still possible further east. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Precip chances will continue virtually each day through the end of the week as a difluent southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains downstream of a stationary trough axis. A frontal boundary pushing through western Kansas later tonight, is expected to move into the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma before stalling out late Tuesday/early Wednesday, providing a focal point for shower and thunderstorm development early in the period. Periods of precip can be expected Thursday as the stalled frontal boundary lifts back to the north through western Kansas, returning a southeast upslope flow to the high plains. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and increased instability may be enough to support storm development as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Another frontal passage is projected toward week's end bringing more precip chances to western Kansas. A cooler air mass settled across the high plains and reinforced by surface high pressure moving eastward across the Upper Midwest, will keep highs capped in the 60s(F) and 70s(F) Wednesday afternoon. Warmer temperatures are likely Thursday as the boundary, initially stalled to our south, lifts northward across the region. Should see more seasonal highs Thursday afternoon, if not a little above. Another frontal passage late in the week will end the small warming trend Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Any convection is expected to avoid the terminals this evening, so opted to keep out of the 00z TAFs. Strong S/SE winds will persist through the evening hours, diminishing somewhat again after sunset. Expect low level wind shear to return by around 06z with another low level jet. South winds will decrease toward daybreak, as a cold frontal boundary sinks south to a Hays-Syracuse line by 12z Tue. Cold front will pass the terminals 12-15z with a shift to north winds of 10-20 kts. High confidence that MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus cigs will develop along/behind the frontal boundary Tuesday morning, with reduced vis in BR/FG also expected. Consensus of short term models suggests that MVFR stratus (1-2k ft AGL) will persist much of daylight Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 63 68 56 69 / 20 60 70 70 GCK 58 64 54 65 / 30 50 80 70 EHA 56 67 54 68 / 20 40 70 60 LBL 65 71 58 70 / 10 50 60 60 HYS 61 63 54 64 / 40 60 80 70 P28 69 80 63 74 / 10 50 60 70 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Turner
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1052 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031015- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 1052 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 /952 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south central...southwest and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Day 1 Discussion ---------------- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening across west central and portions of southwest Kansas. A few storms could become severe capable of producing tennis ball to baseball size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. A few isolated tornadoes are possible. Day 1 Hazards ------------- * Tornado: Limited risk * Hail: Elevated risk * Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk * Flooding: Limited risk * Lightning: Limited risk * Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk * Fire weather: Limited risk .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening generally west of a Hays to Liberal line. && For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo 32
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
632 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017
KSZ043-030030-
Scott KS-
632 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...
At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Pence, or 10 miles northwest of Scott City, moving
northeast at 25 mph.
Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Modoc, Pence and Scott State Lake.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for west central
Kansas.
LAT...LON 3870 10069 3868 10069 3838 10112 3841 10113
3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 227DEG 22KT 3859 10105
ReynoldsThe Goodland radar (KGLD), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:55 UTC.
3 tornado, 1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Only minor evidence of light damage but the tornado was well documented.
Damage was done to irrigation sprinklers, power poles and trees. It was also well documented by video.
The Emergency Manager did a detailed survey with images and GPS locations. EF2 damage was done to outbuildings, power poles, and farm equipment. The tornado moved into Gove County at 18:18 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kansas, 2017Warnings in Kansas, October 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 726256, 725518, 725519, 726257, 726259.