Hail in Kansas, May 30, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Frontal zone currently moving into northern KS will continue
southward through the afternoon. Latest soundings and mesoanalysis
show a weakly capped environment so any localized convergence will
aid in isolated to scattered shower and storm development. High res
models are in fair agreement and have been consistent in convective
initation near I-70 in the next few hours with a storm motion to the
southeast. The latest analysis shows about 500 to 1000 j/kg of
mlcape and effective shear around 40 kt. This will be sufficient for
a marginal risk of hail and damaging wind gusts given cloud bases
around 8 kft and steep low level lapse rates. This high cloud base
may result in enhanced evaportational cooling therefore increasing
the potential for downburst winds. The most favorable area of storms
will be in east central KS along and south of I-70. This evening the
loss of daytime heating should cause convection to dissipate across
the area. Soundings tonight show a weakly capped environment, but
limited forcing so chances remain low. There will be better mid
level moisture again along with the steep mid level lapse rates so
high based showers and sprinkles will be possible in the morning.
Tomorrow the surface boundary lifts back northward providing some
low level convergence and higher dew points than today. This will
result in more cape, which combined with deep layer shear around 40
to 50 kt poses a risk for strong to severe storms. If lower to mid
60s dew points can be realized than the environment may become
uncapped by mid day. Forecast hodographs reveal more clockwise
curvature than today, which may support more organized convection.
Regardless with a weakly capped environment by late morning and
early afternoon it is difficult to define a favorable location for
storms so it is across the entire area for now. The main hazards
tomorrow will be hail and damaging wind with a pretty low tornado
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

The extended period consists of several shower and thunderstorm
chances...

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing over a portion of the CWA
by 00Z tomorrow evening. A stalled front oriented from central KS to
east central KS will likely be the focal point for a cluster of
thunderstorms through the evening hours Wednesday. A subtle upper
wave within the northwest flow should increase coverage of
thunderstorms along the boundary during the evening hours.
Sufficient mid level lapse rates near 6-7 C/KM will contribute to
MUcape values upwards of 500 to 1000 J/KG during the evening hours.
Effective bulk shear will remain near 40 knots, therefore expect
organized convection with the primary hazards including hail and
wind.

Upper level ridging will shunt precipitation chances eastward for
Thursday. A low amplified trough will push into the central plains
by the end of the week, increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances for Friday afternoon. While a conditionally unstable
atmosphere is expected to reside, minimal deep layer shear is
expected, which will hinder any organized convection from
developing. A similar environment will exist on Saturday,
therefore isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. A secondary trough is expected to amplify over the
northern plains, which should push a surface front through the
area Saturday night into Sunday.

As far as next week goes, another cutoff upper low will take shape
across the western CONUS, while upper ridging resides across the
central CONUS. Confidence in the track of the upper low much too
low to outline any specifics at this point. However, thunderstorm
chances look to continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this
afternoon. The ceilings will be above 5 kft and visibility may
struggle to lower much so VFR conditions are expected. A few of
the storms may be capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts,
which will most likely be brief over one location. There is a
slight chance over night for a light shower or sprinkles like this
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Sanders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-312030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
324 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening. Some of the storms may be capable of producing strong
winds and hail. Any risk for severe storms will diminish with
sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More storms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. A few of these storms will also be capable of
producing strong winds and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep