Hail in Kansas, March 29, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
131 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for a few
strong to severe storms this afternoon across east central Kansas,
where a few patches of sun have brought MUCAPEs up to around 500
J/kg, and deep layer shear remains around 60 kts. The window for
any strong storms will be short as the surface low now near ICT
lifts northeast, dragging a cold front through the remainder of
the forecast area by early this evening and sweeping any robust
deep convection out of the area. Storms are developing now and
with limited instability may take a bit to get going, but will
bear watching over the next several hours as they push northeast
across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Low-level shear
and helicities are quite strong, so main concerns with any strong,
organized convection will be hail and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Stratus and rain showers will follow behind on the northwest side
of the low, and will linger through the overnight and into midday
Thursday before exiting off to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A brief lull in precipitation is expected Thursday night through
Friday as shortwave ridging builds over the region, then another
wave in the stream of disturbances slides across the southern
CONUS this weekend through early in the work week, bringing
precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday. Have added some
isolated thunder on Saturday afternoon and evening, but the track
of the surface low will be far enough south that most instability
will focus mainly south of the CWA. Another low will follow in its
wake Wednesday and Thursday with another very similar track,
bringing a brief dry period Monday, then rain chances Tuesday
through the end of the forecast period. Severe weather potential
will depend on the track of each of these surface lows and their
associated boundaries, but at this time appears to be focused more
to the south of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

IFR to low-end MVFR ceilings are expected through the next several
hours as thick, low-based cu develops at KFOE and KTOP. Periods of
rain showers will continue at KMHK and points westward through
much of the afternoon and evening, although a brief break is
possible during the mid- to late-afternoon. Scattered showers and
an isolated storm or two will develop this afternoon and could
impact KFOE and KTOP before 00z, then will push off to the east.
This will leave behind perhaps a short break in precipitation as
the surface low passes to the east, then rain showers and lowering
IFR ceilings as well as north northwest winds tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
143 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
143 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 AND
I-35 CORRIDORS. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE WHEATON            39.48N 96.28W
03/29/2017  M2.50 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM