Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 29 to 30, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Convective allowing models are fairly aggressive with respect to
upscale thunderstorm growth across western into south central Kansas
this evening. The old cold front has already begun to wash out with
models shoeing more broad easterly surface winds heading into
tonight. As earlier concerns of initial development across the far
southeast have waned, models such as the HRRR have become more
aggressive with the upscale growth into a qlcs wind event well into
central Kansas before midnight. We've increased pops to account
for these latest model runs, as well as adjusted overnight lows
for early Friday morning downward. Large hail up to 2 inches may
be the primary threat in the western counties while a wind threat
and heavy rain threat may be more likely with time this evening
into central Kansas counties.

Friday the area will be under the influence of weak northeasterly
surface flow, as a a midlevel shortwave move  across the KS/NE line by
the afternoon. This should produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon given the average MUCAPES
around 500 j/KG.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

The front and major instability/CAPE axis moves farther southeast
into the southern Plains by Saturday. Any storm threats by Saturday
might be in the extreme west it at all. However, the entire southern
High Plains region maintains relatively high dew points, with richer
moisture not being scoured out. The GFS already has a trough across
the Rockies  by Sunday  with vorticity advection into Kansas by
Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Short term models earlier this afternoon have been in good
agreement with bringing a cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms across western Kansas early tonight. Strong winds
and heavy rainfall appear to be the main hazards. Timing so fair
has also been in decent agreement between the last few runs so
will follow the latest trend and introduce strong winds in excess
of 45 knots and at least IFR visibilities and ceilings with these
storms. Timing and track favors the Garden City terminal between
01z and 03z Friday and the Dodge City, Hays and possibly even
Liberal terminals between 02z and 04z Friday. Once these storms
pass the prevailing winds will become north northeast at 10 to 15
knots through the remainder of the night. Model soundings suggest
the potential for some MVFR stratus being possible between late
tonight, especially between 09z and 15z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  60  87 /  80  30  20   0
GCK  63  82  58  88 /  60  20  20  10
EHA  62  82  59  86 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  64  84  60  88 /  50  20  20  10
HYS  63  81  59  88 /  70  30  20   0
P28  69  86  63  89 /  70  40  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-300930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 /326 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central and
eastern portions of southwest Kansas this evening. The main threat
will be golf ball to tennis ball size hail and damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday
with the potential for up to quarter size hail and wind gusts
upward of 60 mph. Thunderstorms will then be possible nearly each
day through the early part of next week. However, the potential
for severe weather is low.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening, mainly east of a
Garden City to Ashland line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

32

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
746 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ061-074-300145-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-
746 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT/745 PM MDT/...

At 746 PM CDT/646 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 4 miles south of Holly, or 19 miles west of Syracuse,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coolidge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3807 10204 3792 10163 3761 10176 3762 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 300DEG 26KT 3799 10211

RBURG