Hail in Kansas, April 15, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

The cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast across our cwa this
afternoon, and was located from KOLU to KHLC at 20Z. Convergence
along the frontal boundary will bring the potential for scattered
thunderstorms primarily across our far southeast zones into the
evening, however short term models suggest the potential for
elevated convection behind the boundary during the evening across
portions of south central Nebraska also. Strong to severe storm
may occur with decent instability progged through the evening.

Conditions dry out pretty quickly tonight as dry air advects in
behind the front and surface dewpoints drop to the 40s and 30s.
High pressure settles in overnight and temperatures will be
noticeably cooler with lows ranging from the upper 30s to
mid/upper 40s northwest to southeast. Readings look to be above
thresholds for frost which is a warmer trend than models indicated
a couple of days ago.

Easter Sunday is looking dry and mild for most areas. Still
monitoring the rain potential for north central Kansas with
progression of shortwave trough, but expect there will be a sharp
gradient for areas of rain vs no rain given the drier air to the
north. Have maintained small chances for rain showers in our
south.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

The forecast dries out Sunday night and through the day Monday.
Increasing southerly low level flow draws moisture north Monday,
with chances for storms returning Monday night in a warm air
advection regime ahead of an approaching shortwave trough with
lift enhanced by a strengthening low level jet and we could see a
strong elevated storm. Precipitation chances linger into the day
Tuesday until a cold frontal passage scours moisture to the east.

In a progressive pattern, a system moving out of the north central
Rockies will bring additional precipitation chances late Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Thursday is still looking dry, then models
diverge on timing/track of an upper low across the southern plains
into Kansas. If the slower, ECMWF solution verifies we could see a
decent swath of rain across Kansas into southern Nebraska Friday
into Saturday morning. It's hard to pinpoint this far out especially
with the more progressive GFS, so did not deviate from ensembles
with intermittent precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only passing
mid/high level clouds anticipated at either terminal. Expect
northerly winds this evening to gradually shift and become more
easterly during the day tomorrow as an area of surface high
pressure slides into the Missouri river valley.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this evening for
locations along and south of a line from Osceola to Alma,
Nebraska. The storms will be capable of producing hail to the size
of quarters and wind gusts around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Rain and thunderstorms are likely across most of the area Monday
evening into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon should be dry, but there is another chance for
thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday night. After a dry
day on Thursday, chances for thunderstorms return Thursday night
and continue through Saturday, especially across north central
Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for a few hours this evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
652 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSZ017-018-160015-
Rooks KS-Osborne KS-
652 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ROOKS AND WEST
CENTRAL OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 652 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Woodston, or 25 miles north of Emmeram, moving east at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Rooks
and west central Osborne Counties.

LAT...LON 3934 9918 3939 9904 3946 9892 3928 9884
      3925 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 251DEG 16KT 3932 9907

Rossi