Hail in Kansas, April 1, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
711 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

Based on radar trends and short range models, showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread north-northeast
across western Kansas today as a series of H5 vort maxima cycle
northeastward across the high plains within a difluent flow aloft
downstream of a closed low anchored across the Desert Southwest.
Although instability will remain fairly limited, ample lift present
north of a frontal boundary across the southern Texas Panhandle
combined with a +70kt jet aloft streaming across the high plains
will continue to provide sufficient support for periodic showers
with embedded thunderstorms. The lack of instability will limit
the potential for severe weather with widespread beneficial
rainfall gradually shifting eastward into central and eastern
Kansas. Considering widespread precip and overcast skies, highs in
the 40s(F) are likely for the most part with an outside chance
for lower 50s(F) in south central Kansas. With skies beginning to
clear across our extreme west tonight, look for lows down into the
30s(F) across west central and extreme southwest Kansas to the
40s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

Drier conditions can be expected Sunday through late Monday
afternoon as the upper level shortwave trough across New Mexico
pushes eastward through Texas and into the Mississippi River
Valley early in the period. A weaker flow aloft and a lack of
instability will keep precip chances at bay into the early part of
next week. Precip chances pick back up Monday night/early Tuesday
as another upper level shortwave digs southeast across the Great
Basin, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft
across the Western High Plains. As the upper level system approaches,
surface low pressure is projected to develop across eastern New
Mexico once again with an attendant frontal boundary extending
eastward across the South Plains. As the southwest flow aloft
intensifies, showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a
series of H5 vort maxima begin to cycle across the high plains
downstream of the trough axis. Precip chances will continue into
Wednesday as the upper level shortwave moves further eastward
across the Central Plains.

Near normal temperatures are expected Sunday as a westerly
downslope flow sets up bringing warmer air off the high plains of
eastern Colorado. Could see highs pushing back up into the lower
to mid 60s(F) Sunday afternoon depending on any lingering cloud
cover. The warming trend continues Monday as weak upper level
ridging moves across the high plains. Highs should push further up
into the 60s(F) to possibly the lower 70s(F) that afternoon before
cooler temperatures return Tuesday as the next upper level system
arrives, ushering another cold front across western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

Aviation weather will continue to be very poor through the entire
period, with LIFR/IFR conditions prevailing at DDC, GCK, and HYS
terminals. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals off
and on through the day as well. Improvement to VFR category is not
expected until late morning or midday Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  39  60  39 /  90  70  10   0
GCK  43  36  61  36 /  90  60   0   0
EHA  41  35  61  38 /  70  50   0   0
LBL  45  37  61  38 /  90  50   0   0
HYS  45  39  60  41 /  90  80  10   0
P28  52  45  61  44 /  80  80  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
343 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
343 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 /243 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through late this
afternoon and early evening. Up to quarter size hail is possible
with embedded thunderstorms early this morning.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday.
However, severe weather is not expected.

Snow is possible across west central and extreme southwest Kansas
late Tuesday night with the potential for light accumulations.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Snow: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

32

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
302 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

KSZ077-078-087-088-010900-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
302 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FORD...MEADE...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 301 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles west of Fowler, or 8 miles northeast of Meade, moving northeast
at 35 mph. Another strong storm was located near Meade State Lake,
which was also moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Meade, Montezuma, Minneola, Fowler, Ford, Ensign, Fort
Dodge, Wright, Bloom, Kingsdown, Missler, Windhorst, Meade State
Lake, Willroads Garden, Dodge City Regional Airport, Boot Hill
Casino, The Haggard Elevator, Big Basin Preserve and The Hobart
Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 10047 3779 9956 3701 10002 3701 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 223DEG 32KT 3739 10026

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
843 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

KSZ087-088-011430-
Meade KS-Clark KS-
843 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MEADE AND NORTHWESTERN
CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

At 842 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Meade State Lake, or 12 miles south of Meade,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meade and Fowler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 10043 3746 10030 3737 9988 3700 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 208DEG 36KT 3711 10032

AJOHNSON