Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, August 3 to 4, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
mainly west of US 31. Otherwise a sharp cold front will drive east
across the area late tonight into early Friday morning with
scattered thunderstorms expected. Much cooler weather will arrive
Friday and persist into Saturday before temperatures moderate warmer
through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Eliminated most near term pops on account of substantial theta-e
minimum seen in 00Z raob at KILX which will advance newd across the
cwa through early aftn. Much better low level theta-e ridging will
then push into wrn areas ewd of cyclone wrapping up across the upper
midwest and in concert with upticking low level jet after 21Z. Some
evidence of a prefrontal trough feature at that time coming out of
ne IL as indicated in most CAMS guidance and will confine higher
chance pops far west late this aftn.

Otherwise ewd progression of cold frontal zone commences tonight
albeit slower versus prior model based guidance and expect much of
this will wash out/decay with ewd extent across the cwa especially
late. Will modify according to preferred blend and in light of 00Z
based mos trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Strong post frontal cold advection will overspread the area Fri
morning. Steepening sfc based lapse rates within residual low level
moisture plume should bubble by late morning into mid aftn with
isolated to scattered showers pending arrival/extent of entraining
dry air.

Following sfc ridging will then expand through the OH valley Sat
before breaking down in advance of next nrn plains sw disturbance
late Sun which is forecast to shear out overhead late Mon. Return
flow ahead of this system warrants holding onto low chc pops Sun
aftn into Mon. Renewed sfc ridging and dry weather expected to
prevail then through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017
Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the warm sector as we
have reached convective temperature. Limited BL shear at this time
with increasing SWLY flow further west will sustain isolated
convection through the early portion of the TAF.

Instability and shear after 00Z will usher in more organized and
widespread convection...especially KSBN area. Expect to see MVFR
and isold IFR conditions across the western half of the forecast
area through the overnight. Upper level support shifts quickly
eastward overnight and the threat of convection and flight
restrictions will diminish quickly.

With the frontal/trof passage expect to see significant boundary
layer turbulence and shear. While not forecasting LLWS, this will
need to be monitored closely during the 06-12Z period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Lewis

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
537 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-041000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
537 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 /437 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon mainly
west of US 31. Scattered thunderstorms are more likely this evening
west of I 69 and after midnight east of I 69. An isolated strong
storm with small hail and gusty winds is possible across northern
Indiana this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a low chance for thunderstorms late Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-MIZ077-041000-
La Porte-Berrien-
537 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 /437 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon through
this evening. An isolated strong storm with small hail and gusty
winds is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Dangerous swimming conditions are expected Friday through Saturday
morning along the Lake Michigan shoreline.

There is a low chance for thunderstorms late Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-041000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
537 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon through
this evening. An isolated strong storm with small hail and gusty
winds is possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected from Friday morning
through Saturday morning.

There is a low chance for thunderstorms late Sunday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
207 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

INZ008-016-017-031845-
Noble-Whitley-Kosciusko-
207 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NOBLE...
NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY AND EASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES...

At 206 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pierceton, or
near Winona Lake, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Winona Lake, Tri-lakes, North Webster, Pierceton, Etna,
Cromwell, Larwill, Big Barbee Lake, Ridinger Lake, Merriam, Lorane,
Big Lake, Irish Lake, Bear Lake, Green Center, Wilmot, James Lake,
Goose Lake and Knapp Lake.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4118 8582 4143 8567 4131 8530 4110 8572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 226DEG 21KT 4120 8572

SLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
215 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

INZ005-MIZ078-031900-
Elkhart-Cass-
215 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELKHART AND CASS
COUNTIES...

At 214 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Edwardsburg, or
near Granger, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Simonton Lake, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Penn,
Vandalia, Dailey, La Grange, Paradise Lake, Calvin Center,
Adamsville, Juno Lake, Donnell Lake, Jones, Diamond Lake, Shavehead
Lake, Wakelee and Eagle Lake.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 88 and
93.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4207 8577 4193 8576 4167 8600 4169 8606
      4176 8606 4176 8612 4207 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 210DEG 29KT 4176 8606

SLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
230 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-032100-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-
Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-
Jay-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-
Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend,
Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee,
Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Angola, Fremont, Kendallville,
Ligonier, Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake,
Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver,
Rochester, Akron, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Mentone,
Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne, New Haven,
Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru,
Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington,
Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur, Berne, Marion, Gas City,
Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier, Portland, Dunkirk, Niles,
Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan,
Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Marcellus, Sturgis,
Three Rivers, White Pigeon, Mendon, Coldwater, Bronson,
Hillsdale, Jonesville, and Litchfield
230 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 /130 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/

...Scattered Strong Thunderstorms This Afternoon...

Scattered thunderstorms will be across the region this afternoon
and early evening. Any storm may quickly and briefly intensify
before diminishing. Hail to three quarters of an inch in
diameter...wind gusts to 50 mph and frequent lightning will be
possible with any thunderstorm. An isolated brief severe
thunderstorm is possible as well with wind gusts to 60 mph. Listen
for possible warnings and updated statements this afternoon. Take
shelter when any thunderstorm approaches.