Cold in Georgia, March 16, 2017

Name: Cold in Georgia, March 16, 2017
Start: 2017-03-16T00:00
End: 2017-03-16T10:00
Location: Georgia

March 16, 2017 · NWS GSP · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.

The 2017 growing season began early across northeast Georgia, due to an unusually warm February and early March that saw average temperatures of almost 10 degrees above normal. An episode of cold arctic high pressure in the middle of March led to a hard freeze on the morning of the 16th, when low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s were reported. This caused significant damage to berry, wheat, apple, and peach crops. While subsequent days of freezing temperatures caused further damage, the vast majority of the damage occurred on the 16th.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 9:11 PM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 9:11 PM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1011 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold Canadian high pressure will continue to bring below normal
temperatures to our region until Friday when a warm front moves up
from the south bring warmer temperatures. Temperatures will moderate
ahead of another cold front which passes Saturday. Temperatures will
be above normal in the first half of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday:  Temperatures are rapidly plummeting
east of the mountains and the Freeze Warning was adjusted to start
right away. The Wind Chill Advisory continues to look on track for
the northern mountains, with winds based on the latest RAP/HRRR
trends suggesting a good chunk of minus 5 to minus 10 F high valley
wind chills and minus 15 F or worse along the ridge tops overnight.

Otherwise, deep upper troughing continues to dominate the pattern
aloft across much of the eastern CONUS late this evening. A cold
Canadian high pressure system will continue to build east from the
central MS valley to the southern Appalachians tonight, and then
overhead tomorrow. Expect well below normal temperatures regionwide
tonight and tomorrow amidst mostly clear/sunny skies. The freeze
warning continues until 11 am Thu. with a slow warmup from very cold
pre-dawn temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday: A Freeze Watch has been posted for
foothill and piedmont sections for Thursday night.

Otherwise, the deep upper trof will continue moving offshore through
Friday as heights gradually rise over the fcst area. Through the
day, the upper pattern will flatten over the region as another upper
trof  approaches the western Great Lakes. As we move into Sat, the
trof will dig down over the fcst area as steep upper ridging builds
over the Western CONUS. By the end of the period at 00z on Sunday,
the trof axis is expected to be oriented over the CWFA or just east
of it. At the sfc, dry and unseasonably cold Canadian high pressure
will be centered over the region early Fri. As the day progresses,
the high will begin to move over the coast and then offshore by
early Sat. At the same time, low lvl flow becomes SLY to SWLY and
dewpts begin to warm.  Another cold front will approach the fcst
area late Fri and move into the CWFA Sat morning. The front is
expected to be SE of the CWFA by the evening with dry Canadian high
pressure overspreading the area in the front's wake. As for the
sensible fcst, Friday should be dry with POPs ramping up along the
NC/TENN border region during the evening/overnight. The best chance
for widespread precip will be Sat morning thru the early afternoon.
I kept a slight chance POP along the NC/TENN border for any
lingering NW flow precip, but at this point the low lvl profiles
look pretty dry. The main concern remains the well below normal
temps Friday morning with lows still below freezing for the vast
majority of the CWFA. Temps rebound significantly each day and are
expected to be back near climo by Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday: No sigfnt changes were made to the ext range
fcst. Pops were reduced rather quickly across the wrn mtns as the
latest models are showing little moisture depth or saturation
beneath the subs inversion. The nrn NC mtns may received an
additional tenth of an inch of -sn thru 06z Sun...but most places
across the spine shud remain dry. The airmass behind the front will
not be as cold as the arctic air lingering over the region
lately...thus with good insol and a strong subs zone in place...max
temps will rise to arnd normal levels Sun and increase to 10-12
degrees above normal by Tue as sw/ly llvl flow develops.

There is another frontal system which will reach the mtns early
Tues...crossing south by mid-day Wed or earlier. The GFS ens members
have quite a bit of spread wrt QPF and the op models do not agree
well with the timing nor the amount of precip during this time
frame. Thus...lower end pops will be maintained across the mtn zones
with slight chances east. Plume diagrams have this precip as all
rain. The llvl flow should allow for destabilization and soundings
indicate increasing mlvl lapse rates Tues...so thunder will not be
out of the question...yet likely remaining in the general cat. A
relative cool down from Tue's highs will occur Wed as a cP airmass
mixes into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere:  VFR conditions will continue at all sites
through the period as broad surface ridging prevails beneath a deep
upper trough. Winds will be the primary concern through the period
as nwly flow gusts diminish this evening all but KAVL and winds
weaken overnight. Winds will increase yet again on Thursday, with
gusts most likely at KAVL and possibly at KCLT. Otherwise, expect
clear skies except for a FEW cirrus through the afternoon on
Thursday.

Outlook: The next chance of precipitation and restrictions will be
on Friday or Saturday as another cold front pushes in, followed by
drier air.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will be less of a concern Thursday, but RH may drop below 20%,
and fuels are likely to be drier. The need for special products
on Thursday will be re-evaluated tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      81 1945     26 1890     60 1945      9 1893
   KCLT      83 1945     32 1892     66 1990     18 1970
   KGSP      83 2015     33 1960     62 1990     20 1916
                2012

RECORDS FOR 03-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      85 1945     34 1915     58 1945     17 1890
   KCLT      90 1945     32 1892     66 1945     23 1900
   KGSP      85 1945     38 1998     64 1945     21 1981

RECORDS FOR 03-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1908     33 1936     56 1927     15 1941
                            1928
   KCLT      85 2011     35 1892     62 1945     21 1967
   KGSP      86 1963     44 1958     60 1945     19 1902
                                        1927

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
     Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ035>037-056-057-
     068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ033-049-
     050.
SC...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     SCZ004>014-019.
     Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG
SHORT TERM...HG/JPT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CDG/HG
FIRE WEATHER...CDG
CLIMATE...CDG

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 15, 9:04 PM EST, 2 hours 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

NCZ033-049-050-170215-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...Dangerous wind chill likely. Please see the latest Wind
Chill Advisory for further details.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-170215-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central and southwest
mountains of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-170215-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
foothills and piedmont of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...Frost/freeze likely. Please see the latest Freeze
Warning for further details. Also, wildfire danger may again be
elevated. Low relative humidity and drying fuels may lead to an
elevated risk of wildfires.
..Friday...Frost/freeze likely.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-170215-
Rabun-Habersham-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the southern mountains
and northern Blue Ridge area of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...Wildfire danger possible. Low relative humidity and
drying fuels may lead to an elevated risk of wildfires.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Cold/Wind Chill, Elbert

When: March 16, 12:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
Where: Elbert forecast zone
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 34.117, -82.840 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cold/Wind Chill, Franklin

When: March 16, 12:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
Where: Franklin forecast zone
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 34.375, -83.229 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cold/Wind Chill, Habersham

When: March 16, 12:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
Where: Habersham forecast zone
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 34.631, -83.531 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cold/Wind Chill, Hart

When: March 16, 12:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
Where: Hart forecast zone
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 34.351, -82.964 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cold/Wind Chill, Stephens

When: March 16, 12:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
Where: Stephens forecast zone
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 34.554, -83.293 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Cold/Wind Chill: Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Georgia in 2017 Every state in 2017 This day in weather history Warnings in Georgia, March 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 686215, 686216, 686217, 686218, 686219.