Winter Weather, Rabun
- When
- March 12, 12:00 AM EST to 7:00 AM EST
- Where
- Rabun forecast zone
- Reported by
- CoCoRaHS
- Coordinates
- 34.882, -83.402 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
An upper level disturbance interacting with an unseasonably cold air mass resulted in an area of snow that moved quickly across the northeast Georgia mountains during the morning of the 12th. Most locations saw total snowfall accumulation of around an inch, although the higher peaks and ridges may have seen more.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance interacting with an unseasonably cold air mass resulted in an area of snow that moved quickly across the northeast Georgia mountains during the morning of the 12th. Most locations saw total snowfall accumulation of around an inch, although the higher peaks and ridges may have seen more.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 11, 10:17 PM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1017 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold Canadian high pressure continues to bring much below normal
temperatures to our region through the start of the upcoming week. A
low pressure system will spread rain and snow across our area
through early Sunday. Expect a brief period of dry weather
Sunday night and Monday before another system brings a chance of a
wintry mix back to our region Monday night and Tuesday. Unusually
cold weather will persist through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EST...Upper shortwave sharpening up over Missouri
attm, and will quickly streak across TN overnight and cross our area
early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a sprawling arctic high pressure
system continues to supply some colder air, filtering in from the
north. Radar mosaic imagery shows two parallel bands of rain,
coincident with two separate areas of 850-700 mb frontogenesis. The
southern band is over the I-20 corridor of MS/AL/GA, and has enough
instability for some thunder. The northern band is taking shape from
central AR to southeastern TN. This band is entering western NC and
should result in a tick up in snow rates right in the warning area.
Looking at the latest HRRR, NAM and GFS, it seems the models are
still trending a little south with the swath of heaviest QPF, with
the northern edge now right along the northern CWFA border. Avery to
Davie counties may not even get advisory criteria. But I did not
feel confident enough to drop any counties from the advisory. To the
south, the question is more how quickly the rain/snow line drops
south before the precip tapers off. Confidence is low on this side
as well, so also no changes to the advisory in GA or SC, either.
With all that said, only minor tweaks were made to the
temps/pops/wx/qpf/snow grids. Will stay the course.
Otherwise, a strong shortwave develops in prevailing northwesterly
flow over the central CONUS. This shortwave will cross the CWA on
Sunday and bring some rain and snow showers to the area. Current
timing has showers increasing from the west after dark, spreading
eastward, and ending from west to east Sunday morning. Given fairly
dry air at low levels, snow fall amounts will not be great outside
of the mountains. Current guidance is consistent in having the
heaviest snow totals of 3 to 4 inches over the mountains of Western
North Carolina and Northeast GA. One to two inch amounts will spread
eastward and southward into the Piedmont, mixed with rain initially
in Piedmont areas. Winds will continue northerly to northeasterly
through Sunday at 5 to 10 mph. Though surface temperatures,
especially in Piedmont areas, are initially warm, cold advection and
several hours of snow should allow for a small amount of
accumulation of snow by Sunday morning.
Forecast lows Sunday are based on wet-bulb cooling from
precipitation, and will warm slowly in the afternoon to upper 40s in
the Piedmont and low 40s in the mountains. Cloud cover will persist
throughout the day, leading to slow melting of the snow fall.wsw
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 pm Saturday: A brief lull in precipitation is expected
Sunday night given weak shortwave ridging and temporary drying of
profiles overhead. Subfreezing temperatures early Monday could cause
black ice issues in locations receiving melting on Sunday, and
active freeze areas will need a Freeze Watch except for locations
near the Upper Savannah River where mins should be 33 or higher.
Meanwhile, an amplifying wave will drop southeast across the central
plains Sunday night and sharpen up over the confluence of the OH and
mid MS river valleys on Monday. Cold parent surface high pressure
will move into a damming configuration, with the high center setting
up over NY/PA early Monday and nosing southward through the western
Carolinas into northeast Georgia. Low level moist upglide returns
fairly quickly atop the develop damming regime from the southeast
Monday morning. The 850 mb zero degree isotherm will ride northward
across the region on Monday to produce a veritable mixed bag of
wintry precipitation types - lingering longest near the northern
Blue Ridge. Will feature very chilly CAD max temperatures in the 35
to 40 range, but with most locations, aside from the northern
mountains/foothills, seeing transient periods of any freezing
rain/sleet/snow.
On either side of the surface high, the plains low pressure system
will push up the OH valley, while the lingering coastal low deepens
from SC to the NC Outer Banks through Monday evening. Upper
divergence ahead of the approaching upper wave will set up Monday
night, and robust deep layer QG forcing will cross the mid/deep
South through late Monday evening before rapidly crossing the
western Carolinas early Tuesday morning. Ptypes across the NC
mountains will transition quickly to snow and light accumulations
will be likely, especially near the TN line. Following cold fropa,
downsloping flow will set up east of the mountains to dry profiles
out quickly for the foothills and piedmont through Tuesday, but
abundant low level moisture and upslope flow from eastern TN will
start to wring out additional accumulating western mountain snow
showers which will intensify through the day. The HWO mention of
wintry weather will continue mainly across the mountains, with windy
conditions developing as well across the high terrain during peak
cold advection.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Saturday: Deep upper low will pull NE away from the
area Wednesday leaving a deep trough over our area in its wake.
Short wave ridging builds in Friday ahead of the next weather
system.
NW flow snow will linger across the TN border counties Tuesday night
then quickly taper off early Wednesday. A very cold and windy air
mass moves in Wednesday. The cold air mass lingers Thursday with
winds tapering off as the center of high pressure moves in. Temps
will be well below normal with the coldest day on Wednesday and
coldest night Wednesday night. The gusty winds will bring wind chill
values into the advisory category for much of the Northern Mountains
and high elevations of the rest of the NC mountains. The air mass is
also very dry. The best combination of winds and low RH will be
outside of the mountains, possibly bringing increased fire danger.
The low RH continues Thursday but winds will be weaker. Weak
moisture return may develop Friday ahead of the next storm system
with isolated rain showers developing across the mountains late in
the day. Lows Thursday night will "only" be 10 degrees below normal
with highs Friday a few degrees below normal.
The models agree that a storm system will affect the area Saturday.
However, they differ in the details. The ECMWF is less amplified
with a short wave crossing the area Saturday. The GFS is much more
amplified with an upper low moving through the OH Valley and a
strong short wave rotating around the low and across our area.
Naturally, the ECMWF has a weak cold front moving through Saturday
with moisture diminishing as it moves east. The GFS has a stronger
front but not as much moisture as one would expect. The front is
fast moving with some, but not strong, Gulf inflow. Given the
differences, have gone with a model blend, which still gives us
chance PoP for Saturday. Lows and highs will be near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: The forecast still looks on track for precip to develop
later this evening, starting out as -ra, then transitioning to -sn
by around 07z. The latest high-res models all seem to point to a band
setting up over KCLT, but doesn't look appreciably intense. Still
expect temps to drop to around freezing, allowing for some accums of
around 1 to 1.5" by the time it tapers off around 14z. Ceiling and
vsby restrictions are expected once the rates get high enough. going
with IFR from 10-14z. Conditions should improve fairly quickly after
the precip ends, going to VFR by 18z. Winds will be NW this evening,
then veering to NE by 5z and remaining that direction thru the rest
of the period.
Elsewhere: Precip is slow to ramp up in the mountain areas early
this evening, but some areas are seeing light snow. The window for
most intense and widespread precipitation across the region will be
from roughly 6Z to 13Z. Precipitation will be mostly snow in Western
North Carolina, with rain or a rain snow mix in Upstate South
Carolina. Reduced visibility is expected during periods of
snow/rain, with ceilings declining through Sunday morning.
Conditions should improve from north to south, taking longest to get
back to VFR at KAND (probably in the afternoon). Winds will be
generally northerly to northeasterly at 5 to 15 kts.
Outlook: A lull in precip and moisture expected Sunday night. Then
another system will bring a chance of a wintry mix Monday and Monday
night. The next Arctic airmass will push in Tuesday and persist thru
the remainder of the work week, with restrictions unlikely outside
the mountains.
Confidence Table...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT High 98% Low 57% Med 63% High 100%
KGSP High 95% Low 54% Low 48% Low 56%
KAVL Med 74% Med 67% Med 68% Med 74%
KHKY High 100% Low 54% High 96% High 100%
KGMU High 98% Low 54% Low 48% Low 56%
KAND High 100% High 90% Med 63% Med 64%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ010.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ033-
035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ048-051>053-
058-059-062>065.
SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ001>003-
006>009-013-014.
Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
SCZ005>009-012>014.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARKHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-122145- Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...Winter weather likely. Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for further details. ..Monday...Winter weather possible. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain may develop across the North Carolina mountains through the day on Monday. ..Tuesday...High winds and winter weather possible. Strong northwest winds and associated moisture will produce very windy conditions and possibly accumulating snow. ..Wednesday...Winter weather and wind chill possible. Accumulating northwest flow snow showers may continue near the Tennessee line. Very cold temperatures and breezy conditions may lead to dangerously cold wind chills. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to relay snow reports to the National Weather Service. NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-122145- Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central and southern mountains of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...Winter storm likely. Please see the latest Winter Storm Warning for further details. ..Monday...Winter weather possible. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain may develop across the North Carolina mountains late Monday. ..Tuesday...Winter weather possible. Accumulating snowfall may continue across the North Carolina mountains Tuesday, especially near the Tennessee border. Windy conditions are likely as well. ..Wednesday...Winter weather possible. Accumulating northwest flow snow showers may continue near the Tennessee line. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to relay snow reports to the National Weather Service. NCZ507-509-122145- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of Rutherford and Polk Counties in western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...Winter weather likely. Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for further details. ..Monday...Winter weather possible. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain may develop across the North Carolina mountains Monday. ..Tuesday...Winter weather possible. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain may continue across the North Carolina mountains early Tuesday. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to relay snow reports to the National Weather Service. NCZ502-504-506-508-510-122145- Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford- Eastern Polk- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for foothills of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...Winter weather likely. Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for further details. ..Monday...Frost/freeze likely. Please see the Freeze Watch for the latest details. ..Tuesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Tuesday. Expect windy conditions as well. ..Wednesday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Wednesday. ..Thursday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Thursday. ..Friday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to relay snow reports to the National Weather Service. NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ006>009-013-014-122145- Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee- York-Chester- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...Winter weather likely. Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for further details. ..Monday...Frost/freeze likely. Please see the latest Freeze Watch for further details. ..Tuesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Tuesday. ..Wednesday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Wednesday. Fire Danger may be high on Wednesday afternoon as well. ..Thursday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Thursday. ..Friday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to relay snow reports to the National Weather Service. GAZ010-SCZ001>003-122145- Rabun-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast Georgia and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Light snow is expected to develop this evening and overnight, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...Winter weather likely. Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for further details. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to relay snow reports to the National Weather Service. SCZ005-122145- Greater Pickens- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Greater Pickens County in Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...Frost/freeze likely. Please see the latest Freeze Watch for further details. ..Tuesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Tuesday. ..Wednesday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Wednesday. Fire Danger may be high on Wednesday afternoon as well. ..Thursday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Thursday. ..Friday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. SCZ012-122145- Laurens- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Laurens County in Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Light snow is expected to develop overnight, with only light accumulations of snow expected in the northern end of the county. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...Frost/freeze likely. Please see the latest Freeze Watch for further details. ..Tuesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Tuesday. ..Wednesday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Wednesday. Fire Danger may be high on Wednesday afternoon as well. ..Thursday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Thursday. ..Friday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004-010-011-019-122145- Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Greater Oconee-Anderson-Abbeville- Greenwood- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and the western Upstate of South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Tuesday. ..Wednesday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Wednesday. Fire Danger may be high on Wednesday afternoon as well. ..Thursday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are likely throughout the early morning hours Thursday. ..Friday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are possible around daybreak Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ017-122145- Habersham- 432 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Habersham County in northeast Georgia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Light snow is expected to develop this evening and overnight, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. HG
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 PM SNOW CASHIERS 35.11N 83.10W
03/11/2017 M0.5 INCH JACKSON NC PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED 0.5 OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR
CASHIERS... NC
&&
VISINPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1150 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1115 PM SNOW MAGGIE VALLEY 35.52N 83.09W
03/11/2017 M1.5 INCH HAYWOOD NC BROADCAST MEDIA
&&
VISINThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, March 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 684881.