Hail in Georgia, March 1, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight, followed by cool high
pressure that gradually builds in from the northwest through the end
of the week. The high will slide east of the area late in the
weekend, allowing return flow to bring above normal temperatures
back in for early next week. Another cold front approaches from the
west midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST: Updated mainly temperature and dewpoint grids to
reflect a slightly slower progression of CAA this evening, but
otherwise nothing significant yet. Pops and wx grids still look good
and reflect severe potential well still, with a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch in place across the entire area.

Otherwise, the approaching strong cold front has reached a line from
Nashville, TN to Jackson, MS this afternoon. Deep convection ahead
of this front has developed in the rich, mid 60s dewpoint air from
far northern AL to southeast TN, with increasing support from upper
divergence associated with a 140+ kt jetlet at 300 mb. The plume of
abundant low level theta e will stretch toward the southwest part of
our forecast area through mid to late afternoon. In addition, the
more northern parts of the line advancing across TN will likely pose
a severe wind threat to the TN/NC border counties this afternoon as
well. Gusty southwest winds will continue throughout the forecast
area through late afternoon as deep mixing from the warm
temperatures will reach closer to the 40 to 50 kt low level jet
moving overhead. Warm advection gusts should be sub-advisory, but an
SPS has been issued for gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

The convective threat will them ramp up from the west and southwest
after 20Z for all of our area. Convection-allowing models indicate
discrete cellular development firing well southeast of the main
activity through the late afternoon hours. Still anticipate the best
mountain timing from the mainly frontal band mainly 19Z to 23Z, with
foothills timing generally 22Z to 01Z, and lower piedmont mainly 00Z
to 03Z. A pocket of fairly steep lapse rates will cross the region
with the deeper convection, permitting the capping inversion to
dissipate. It appears that best overlap of instability and shear
will affect northeast GA, the extreme southern NC mountains, and the
western SC Upstate around 21z and this is where the tornado threat
will be highest. Consensus SBCAPE values should reach 1000+ J/kg
during the peak. Sfc to 3 km bulk shear is expected to exceed 50 kt,
with sfc to 6 km values 70+ kt. A damaging wind threat will be
supported throughout the entire area through early evening as these
convective features translate east.

Cold advection winds behind the front should pick up with the
arrival of an embedded 50 kt jet from 06Z onward. A wind advisory
will be posted for the higher terrain from the French Broad Valley
northward along the Blue Ridge. The gradient will slowly relax
through Thursday as dry high pressure stretches from the southern
plains to southern Appalachians. Max temps will be some 15 to 20
degrees cooler than today in most areas, more in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday: The ulvl pattern remains broadly
cyclonic through the period...with a strong s/w swinging by north of
the area early Fri. This wave will have little if any effect on the
FA as the sfc trof reflection is weak and very limited wrt to
moisture. The GFS does produce weak upslope -shra arnd daybreak
Fri...however all other op models remain quite dry during this time.
So...little change will be made to the PoP grids thru the
period...meaning dry conds thru Sat evening.

There will be a couple non/precip concerns however. As high pressure
builds in Fri afternoon....the p/grad will increase and a measure of
llvl CCA will enable gusty high elev mtn winds likely reaching adv
levels into the early evening. Dry cP air mixing in will also make
for low RH values Fri/Sat afternoons creating possible fire-wx
concerns. Winds should not be an issue...yet a FDS may be needed
across NE GA and the Upstate depending on fuel moisture levels.
Another concern will be for frost/freeze outside the mtns. Thu night
looks okay...even with mins reaching frost temps...as sfc winds look
to remain mixed keeping td/s rather low. Mins on Fri night should
easily reach freezing or below across the majority of the non/mtns
as the cP sfc high settles in. A freeze watch may be issued on Thu
if the cold guidance trend continues. With the expected airmass
mix...max temps will remain arnd or a bit below normal thru the
period in mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday: Models are in pretty good agreement on
the overall pattern to start out the medium range. An upper trough
will exit off the East Coast Saturday night thru Sunday, then a
large ridge builds in late Sunday thru Tuesday, becoming fairly
amplified. Models begin to diverge with the next trough that will
cross the Rockies and reach the Great Lakes by Tuesday night. The
12z GFS is much deeper than the 12z EC/CAN. This results in a slower
timing of the next cold front. But the 12z EC has come in a little
slower than the previous run, closer to the GFS on the front's
arrival late Tuesday. However, the EC has the upper trough quickly
dampening into zonal flow, it hangs the front up across the area
Wed-Thu. I opted to stay close to the WPC, which has PoPs ramp up a
little quicker than the GFS, but not as slow as the EC. And the
stalled front on the 12z EC is a new development, so I have PoPs
taper off by early Wednesday for now. Temps will start out seasonably
cool early Sunday, but warm back up to about 10-15 deg above normal,
with highs in the lower 70s expected across most of the Piedmont by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Only change to the KCLT TAF for the 21z AMD
was to increase wind gusts in the TEMPO group (associated with
TSRA). Any vertical mixing would bring down the strong winds aloft
and 45kt gusts seem reasonable. Otherwise, a strong cold front with
attendant strong to severe convection continues to approach the
southern Appalachians from the west this afternoon. Mainly lower VFR
cigs are expected ahead of the system with MVFR cigs and possibly
IFR vis developing under the heaviest showers and thunderstorms.
Still anticipate peak thunderstorm activity across KAVL 20Z to 23Z,
across the foothill sites 21Z to 01Z, and around KCLT 22Z to 02Z.
Southwest wind gusts above 30kt at times will toggle WNW to NW
throughout the region with fropa from 02Z west to 06Z east. NW gusts
post fropa will continue into the early overnight and strengthen at
KAVL through Thursday morning with the peak of the cold advectiion.

Outlook: Drier conditions will set up behind the front from Thursday
through the weekend into early next week. A reinforcing front will
cross the region Friday, but with very limited moisture.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday for
     NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
317 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>003-022030-
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
317 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...High winds possible. Gusty northwest winds will
continue across the mountains into Thursday morning.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time..
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-022030-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
317 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...High winds possible. Gusty northwest winds will
continue across the mountains into Thursday morning.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time..
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-022030-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
317 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...Frost/freeze possible. Temperatures are expected to
drop to near or below freezing early Saturday morning. With the
early start to the growing season, a Freeze Warning may be needed.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

Krentz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1124 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-012200-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville,
Toccoa, Royston, Whitworth, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon,
Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton,
Ruckersville, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale,
Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville,
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Mount Mitchell State Park, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Newfound Gap,
Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Smokemont, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek,
Lake Junaluska, Asheville, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens,
Salisbury, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva,
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Nantahala Lake, Highlands,
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte,
Huntersville, Matthews, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe, Trinity,
Indian Trail, Weddington, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir,
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove,
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Lake Lure, Forest City,
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Lake Adger,
Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown,
Tigerville, Gowensville, Caesars Head, Cleveland, Marietta,
Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors,
Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg,
Gaffney, Catawba, Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls,
Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Blackstock, Chester,
Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
1124 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...

Southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will pick
up this afternoon across the region. The winds may gust to between
30 and 40 mph at times. These winds will be strong enough to blow
over unsecured objects and possibly knock down some tree limbs.
Secure any loose objects and use caution if standing outdoors
where you can be hit by overhead falling objects.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible around this
region this afternoon and early this evening. Damaging winds will
be possible with any thunderstorms and watches and warnings could
be issued later today.

Gerapetritis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
353 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

NCZ048>052-058-012200-
Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
353 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...SWAIN...
MITCHELL...NORTHERN GRAHAM...NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN YANCEY
COUNTIES BY 500 PM EST...

At 351 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms in East Tennessee, along a line extending from 5
miles southwest of Dandridge, to 6 miles southeast of Maryville to 7
miles southwest of Athens, and moving east at 75 mph. This line of
storms will move across the North Carolina border at about 430 PM
EST.

Locations to be impacted include...
Burnsville, Marshall, Mars Hill, Hot Springs, Bakersville, Smoky
Mountains-Fontana Area, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Fontana
Lake, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek and Fontana Village.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EST for
western North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3552 8387 3556 8377 3556 8350 3576 8316
      3578 8299 3588 8290 3593 8292 3593 8281
      3600 8278 3606 8264 3603 8259 3597 8261
      3595 8256 3611 8237 3616 8222 3610 8208
      3598 8205 3538 8362 3536 8402 3541 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 256DEG 65KT 3596 8347 3565 8392 3537 8469

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             MORGANTON               35.74N 81.70W
03/01/2017  E0.75 INCH       BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL AT MULL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ON OLD NC 18
            AND OLD COLONY ROAD

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             SALUDA                  35.24N 82.35W
03/01/2017  E0.75 INCH       POLK               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             3 SE MORGANTON          35.71N 81.65W
03/01/2017  E0.88 INCH       BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            SECOND HAND REPORT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR
            MOUNT HOME BAPTIST CHURCH.

&&

CHORNE