What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 4:07 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 4:07 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary from west to east across our
region through the middle of the week then dissipate. This should
result in a little cooler temperature and better chances for rain
over the next few days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Sunday: Line of strong/severe convection has moved
through most of our NC counties and is working its way into SE
zones. Atmosphere has stabilized behind the line, but still plenty
of CAPE (>2k J/kg) and dCAPE (>1k J/kg) ahead of the line, so
certainly not over yet. In addition, atmosphere is beginning to
recover over the mountains with sunshine peeking through again and
instability in E TN starting to nose east. HRRR and other CAMs still
bringing convection down from KY/TN into the northern mountains just
after midnight and have held onto this trend for a while. Have made
some minor adjustments to pops based on this but will continue to
monitor the forecast trends. Temps are all over the place with rain-
cooled air behind the convection, but have tried to trend obs into
the near-term forecast.
Otherwise, mountain valley fog, some dense, is expected again and
locations outside of the mountains that receive rainfall may see
some as well. Lows will again be above normal but not quite as warm
as last night.
Convection redevelops Monday as outflow boundaries from the
overnight MCS move across the area. Coverage will be better along
and south of the I-85 corridor where the timing of the boundary
movement will coincide with the higher instability. North of the
corridor instability will be much less leading to only isolated
coverage at best. DCAPE and sfc delta theta-E values while still on
the high side, will not be as high as Sunday. Instability will reach
moderate levels but just barely. Therefore, the chance of severe
storms will be less but not non-existent. Highs will be in the lower
90s outside of the mountain, and while still humid, heat index
values should remain below 100.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: A weak and nearly stationary cold front
will remain over central GA and SC Monday night into Tuesday,
immediately south of the CWFA. Aloft, we will remain somewhat
under the influence of the northeast CONUS trough, though
without significant embedded vorticity in play early in the
period. More abundant moisture will be present over the south,
near the front, which could increase cloud cover. But otherwise it
appears conditions will be close to climatology, with seasonably
modest instability and weak shear producing a small pulse severe
threat. Partial thicknesses change little from Monday, so max
temps should be similar.
Tuesday night, high pressure will shift into New England in the
wake of the upper trough. A weak upper low is shown to cut off
and remain over the Carolina coast, and allows enough vorticity
to persist over the area that isolated t-storms still could fire
overnight across mainly the Piedmont. The eastward push of the high
will bring cooler air south into the area, which virtually all
guidance indicates will knock max temps down to a couple degrees
below normal, in conjunction with increased cloud cover. Nonetheless
consensus SBCAPE values remain fairly large given still-elevated
sfc dewpoints and good lapse rates afforded by the upper low. PoPs
peak above climo and pulse threats return once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday: The medium range begins Wednesday evening with
a weak closed off 500mb low over the Carolinas and Georgia. As the
next northern stream shortwave crosses the Great Lakes on Thursday,
it kicks this weak low off to the east with the 500mb trough digging
over the East through the weekend. As the Great Lakes shortwave
moves to far eastern Canada, the associated cold front moves slowly
southeast. This front should be nearing the Ohio River early Friday.
As the front approaches from the north, frontal associated
convection will increase first across areas along and north of I-40
Friday afternoon and then spread across much of the rest of the area
Friday evening. The front becomes stationary west to east across our
region through the weekend. The eventual location of the axis of the
trough next weekend varies among the models. This axis location will
have significant influence on our weather. Also, mesoscale
convective systems are expected to develop near the Rockies or
northern Plains states and track southeast in the northwest 500mb
flow toward our region of the nation. Therefore, our weather will
remain unsettled through the weekend. Temperatures will be near
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No changes to the KCLT TAF for the 21z
AMD. Line of TSRA has moved through but with lingering CGs and some
SHRA still moving into the area, will leave the TEMPO as-is.
Otherwise, guidance not very favorable for restrictions outside of
the mountain valleys overnight, so have limited them to KAVL. That
said, they will be possible as most locations will receive rainfall.
Scattered convection expected Monday for all but KHKY. SW wind today
becomes light overnight, then W to SW for Monday.
Outlook: Increasing chances of convection expected through the
middle of next week ahead of a series of weakening cold fronts.
Overnight restrictions will continue in the mountain valleys with
chance increasing elsewhere.
Confidence Table...
21-03z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 90% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH/TDPHazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 4:57 AM EST, 12 hours 55 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon into early evening. The air mass in place is
expected to become moderately to highly unstable. Therefore, many
of the storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. This is in addition to the usual threat
of cloud- to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. While
most of the activity will diminish after sunset, additional
thunderstorms may move into western North Carolina from Tennessee
and Virginia overnight, bringing a second round of thunderstorms
producing lightning and gusty winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
ARK
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 23, 5:22 PM EST, 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WSW SPARTANBURG 34.92N 82.01W
07/23/2017 SPARTANBURG SC 911 CALL CENTER
A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY, BUT GENERALLY BETWEEN
DUNCAN AND MOORE.
&&
TPALMERLocal storm report, Jul 23, 5:27 PM EST, 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0617 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ESE WINGATE 34.98N 80.43W
07/23/2017 UNION NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT MANY ROADS ALONG AND NEAR HWY 601
AND HWY 74 ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. MANY OF THESE
REPORTS ARE FROM THE WINGATE AND MARSHVILLE AREAS.
&&
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Jul 23, 5:32 PM EST, 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
632 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
GAZ026-232300-
Franklin GA-
632 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...
At 632 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Carnesville, moving south at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Carnesville, Royston, Lavonia, Canon, Franklin Springs, Victoria
Bryant State Park and Gumlog.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3425 8320 3425 8324 3424 8324 3425 8329
3426 8329 3426 8331 3440 8335 3447 8309
3444 8308 3441 8310 3436 8311 3434 8310
3428 8311 3424 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 340DEG 24KT 3436 8324
KRENTZLocal storm report, Jul 23, 5:36 PM EST, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SW UNION 34.68N 81.67W
07/23/2017 UNION SC PUBLIC
TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 49 SOUTHWEST OF UNION.
&&
TPALMERSpecial weather statement, Jul 23, 5:36 PM EST, 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
SCZ012-019-232300-
Laurens SC-Greenwood SC-
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAURENS AND
CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 636 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Greenwood, or near Ninety Six, moving south at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Ninety Six, Lake Greenwood, Greenwood State Park, Ninety
Six Historic Site, Cross Hill, Coronaca, Kirksey, Dyson and Epworth.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
LAT...LON 3398 8205 3398 8210 3423 8222 3433 8187
3432 8187 3430 8190 3424 8191 3420 8194
3420 8193 3418 8192 3418 8191 3416 8191
3413 8187 3409 8192 3404 8194 3396 8201
3395 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 340DEG 23KT 3418 8200
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Jul 23, 5:52 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
GAZ029-232315-
Elbert GA-
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM EDT...
At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Elberton, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Russell State Park, Lake Russell, Dewy Rose, Sweet City and
Ruckersville.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
LAT...LON 3401 8291 3401 8294 3403 8294 3404 8298
3408 8300 3410 8304 3411 8303 3412 8304
3424 8293 3425 8290 3417 8273 3415 8272
3400 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 310DEG 13KT 3415 8292
KRENTZ