What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 3:29 PM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 3:29 PM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a broad upper
level trough will continue over the eastern part of the nation into
the early part of the week. A weak cold front lingers west to east
over our region Sunday into early week helping in the generation of
showers and storms. Another upper level disturbance will approach
our area later in the week enhancing the coverage of showers and
storms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 PM EDT Saturday: Continuing to watch multiple rounds of
convection this afternoon, with the first being ongoing shra/tsra
along a diffuse sfc boundary across portions of the Upstate,
northward along I85 into CLT metro. Said convection remains
rather robust thanks to ample heating and thus diurnally driven
cape upwards of 2-3k j/kg along and south of I85 per the SPC Meso.
With that, expecting further development over the next few hours
across the Upstate, with some strong/severe convection certainly
possible. Meanwhile, another wave of convection continues to slide
east out of the TN Valley into portions of western NC and northeast
GA. According to the SPC Meso, instability fields are much lower,
however still at levels supportive of deep convection with severe
storms not out of the question. One additional threat regionwide
(however focused mainly across the western tier of the fcst area)
will be flash flooding as storm motions are rather weak, which
combined with robust rainfall and already decreased ffg values,
could result in isolated flooding concerns. As for the fcst,
tweaked pops/t/td and sky to align with recent radar/obs/sat as
well as CAM guidance.
As of 2:10pm EDT Saturday: Currently, some showers and
thunderstorms have fired only a weak surface boundary that
runs northeast to southwest along the foothills from Iredell to
Polk counties. These storms are expected to move ENE through the
afternoon. More storms are expected to enter western parts of the
CWA later this afternoon/evening as an upper level disturbance
moves eastward across the area. An area of thunderstorms near
severe intensity currently exists in central Tennessee with this
wave, and these showers will continue eastward, reaching northeast
Georgia and western North Carolina by 6pm, with some earlier
showers popping up ahead of the main activity also possible.
There is some chance for severe outflows from any of these storms,
along with brief torrential rainfall and heavy lightning.
Clearing skies have allowed temperatures to warm to near or above
seasonal normals. Moisture is still in place and this warming has
resulted in MLCAPE increasing to the highest levels seen this week
at 1500 to 2000 j/kg. Shear is still weak, but with higher CAPE,
some strong outflows will be a risk this afternoon.
Following passage of shortwave, surface trough also moves eastward
and low-level winds veer to become more northwesterly. This will
help to dry things a little bit with dewpoints on Sunday several
degrees below Saturday. With reduced moisture, surface boundary
east of the area, and a lack of shortwave activity, POPs and
thunderstorm chances are much lower on Sunday. With less cloudy
and drier conditions on Sunday, highs will warm into the low 90s
in piedmont areas to mid 80s in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: An interesting twist for this part of
the forecast cycle. It appears the suite of models are trying to
allow several short waves aloft, to zip across the southern edge of
the westerlies, and cross the Carolina's and northeast Georgia. This
would be from Monday into Tuesday.
These pockets of energy will interact with a moist and unstable
atmosphere, and potentially allow a couple episodes of greater
shower and thunderstorm coverage. Actually the NAM closes off an H7
and H85 center and drifts it through the region.
We will allow precipitation to wane Sunday night, but not shut off
completely. We will then follow the first short wave to enhance
showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. Another downward
trend in POPS again late Monday night, as the energy moves
through, but not completely ending.
The second wave for Tuesday will increase shower and thunderstorm
coverage once again. Meanwhile throughout the two day period there
will be a surface convergence boundary, although weak, which could
focus the activity. However, at this time the small scale details
are rather nebulous.
Since we are forecasting more clouds and precipitation Monday and
Tuesday, we have lowered maximum temperatures a few degrees.
Otherwise continuity with the previous temperature forecast was
followed.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday: Starting Tuesday evening with the broad
upper trough over the East and ridge centered over the Four Corners.
The nearly closed off shortwave trough will be over Missouri Tuesday
evening and moving slowly toward our region. The GFS has a well
defined low level circulation over the Upper Savannah River Valley
Tuesday night. The EC little low pressures over the Carolinas at
that time so looks a bit active to start this medium range. The
Missouri shortwave crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday with more
enhancement of convection for our region especially late Thursday.
CAPE values between 2500 and 3000 late Thursday with highest values
over NE GA and Upstate SC. Some shear will also help in generating
strong storms. The models have a fairly deep trough over the East
Coast next weekend and a big ridge from the eastern Rockies north
into Canada. The front that moves through Thursday night should
linger just south of our area through the weekend. So the scattered
convection hangs on.
Temperatures should remain near normal and maybe Max Temps just
below if the could cover is persistent.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Currently some thunderstorms are firing along
a weak convergence boundary from north of KGSP to north of KCLT.
These showers will move ESE and increase in coverage through 0Z this
evening. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
the area after 21Z from the west associated with an upper level
disturbance. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by divergent
outflows with highly variable and gusty winds. Thunderstorms will
move east of the area and decline by midnight. Some low clouds and
patchy fog are also possible Sunday morning, especially in
mountainous areas. Overnight, surface winds will veer, becoming
more westerly to northwesterly as weak surface boundary moves out of
the area. With somewhat dryer air, showers and clouds will be less
impactful on Sunday when conditions are expected to be VFR following
burn-off of any fog/low clouds.
Outlook: A moist and unsettled pattern will persist into early
next week, featuring mainly afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA and areas
of nocturnal restrictions.
Confidence Table...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT High 100% Med 68% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 83% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% Med 75% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/WJM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJMHazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 4:32 PM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
532 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-021100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
532 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A moist and unstable airmass persists across the region. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening,
before gradually waning after dark. Until then some of the stronger
storms may produce damaging winds, large hail and torrential
rainfall. The torrential rain could generate local flooding issues.
Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes are likely.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.
Sturey
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:30 PM EST, 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
630 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
SCZ007>009-013-014-012300-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Chester SC-Spartanburg SC-
630 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...YORK...
EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northeast of York to 15 miles northwest
of Chester to 9 miles northwest of Union, and moving southeast at 15
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Union, York, Chester, Tega Cay, Clover, Newport, Pacolet,
Monarch Mill and Buffalo.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
LAT...LON 3472 8114 3460 8170 3489 8182 3496 8138
3516 8119 3507 8106 3506 8106 3504 8104
3505 8103 3497 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 321DEG 13KT 3505 8120 3492 8133 3483 8172
HGSpecial weather statement, Jul 1, 5:35 PM EST, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
GAZ017-018-026-SCZ001-004-012300-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...EAST CENTRAL HABERSHAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 5 miles northwest of Toccoa, moving east at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog, Martin, Avalon, Tugaloo State
Park, Tallulah Falls, Turnerville and Oakway.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3473 8346 3467 8299 3449 8305 3442 8309
3456 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 285DEG 26KT 3463 8341
HGSpecial weather statement, Jul 1, 5:36 PM EST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
GAZ026-028-029-012300-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN...WEST CENTRAL ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN HART COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM EDT...
At 636 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles south of Carnesville, or 5 miles north of
Ila, moving east at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Royston, Bowman, Canon, Franklin Springs, Victoria Bryant State Park,
Bowersville and Vanna.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3412 8305 3415 8306 3417 8310 3423 8308
3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8325
3426 8330 3423 8336 3425 8334 3428 8335
3434 8335 3438 8301 3411 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 270DEG 14KT 3425 8327
HGSpecial weather statement, Jul 1, 5:44 PM EST, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
NCZ064-065-SCZ001>003-005-012315-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...NORTHERN PICKENS AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...
At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles west of Brevard to 19 miles northwest of
Pickens to 14 miles north of Walhalla, and moving east at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Pickens, Slater-Marietta, Rosman, Salem, Lake Toxaway,
Jocassee Gorges, Devils Fork State Park, Table Rock State Park and
Caesars Head State Park.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
LAT...LON 3494 8313 3494 8311 3495 8313 3496 8312
3499 8310 3500 8310 3503 8301 3505 8304
3511 8296 3528 8290 3526 8239 3503 8247
3481 8276 3493 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 281DEG 25KT 3520 8288 3510 8291 3498 8307
HGLocal storm report, Jul 1, 5:57 PM EST, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
657 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0554 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW COWPENS 34.99N 81.84W
07/01/2017 SPARTANBURG SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN AT HERITAGE HILLS DR AND CHERRY HILL RD.
&&
CARROLLSpecial weather statement, Jul 1, 5:59 PM EST, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
659 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
NCZ071-SCZ009-013-014-012330-
Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
659 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTH
CENTRAL MECKLENBURG...CHESTER...SOUTHEASTERN YORK AND SOUTHERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...
At 659 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of
Rock Hill to 8 miles northwest of Chester to near Union, and moving
east at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Union, Chester, Fort Mill, Lesslie, Great Falls, Monarch
Mill, Buffalo, Fort Lawn and Carlisle.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3500 8084 3504 8087 3502 8091 3500 8089
3492 8086 3483 8090 3470 8086 3454 8088
3457 8142 3450 8142 3445 8154 3456 8169
3470 8178 3482 8133 3507 8096 3505 8076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 285DEG 26KT 3501 8097 3481 8127 3471 8164
HG