What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 5, 9:20 PM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 5, 9:20 PM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1020 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses our region tonight and moves
off the East Coast on Thursday. Expect very windy
conditions Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will be much below
normal Thursday into the start of the weekend, then milder
temperatures return into the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1000 PM: We remain within the cool airmass created by
in-situ cold air damming. Therefore sfc based parcels are still
stable and most likely will remain so through the remainder of
the evening. Two separate lines of convective activity are present
over East TN and central GA, slowly moving into the CWFA over the
next hour or so. The HRRR has generally indicated this activity
surviving despite the loss of SBCAPE. Aloft, we still anticipate
destabilization occurring as a deep upper trough translates overhead
later tonight. It is still expected that a band of strong tstms
will accompany or precede the front across the area, though they
are expected to remain elevated. Effective shear should be enough
to support supercells and threats of damaging wind and hail, though
tornadoes no longer appear to be the primary threat--assuming the
wedge does not erode. RAP progs of sfc theta-E continue to indicate
the wedge front will retreat up into the Piedmont overnight,
though those progs are a bit overdone at the current time,
and with WAA ongoing aloft, erosion is unlikely. SPC downgraded
nearly all of our area to Slight Risk on the D1 evening update,
which seems reasonable. Revised PoPs focus the chances closer to
the convective lines as they pass through overnight.
A strong ulvl low builds in quickly aft the squall line bringing a
good amount of llvl caa while the sfc p/grad increases sigfnt/ly.
Soundings show shallow mixing across the mtns to arnd 50 kts and 40
kts or so non/mtns aft 12z Thu and persisting thru midnight Fri.
So...will issue a HW.W for most mtns/fthills and HW.Y across
non/mtns. Northwest flow snowfall will begin during the day,
perhaps just as flurries until afternoon when profiles cool and
ice crystal growth increases. Mins shud be right arnd normal while
max temps will remain in the u50s non/mtns and L50s mtn valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2pm Wednesday: Main cold front will be well east of area and
off the coast by Thursday evening with some rain/snow showers
continuing with northwesterly upslope enhancement over the Southern
Appalachians. Showers over the mountains gradually trail-off through
Friday as dry advection proceeds. Snow totals are not expected to
be significant, except at the highest elevations where several
inches or more may occur. Main issue Thursday night/Friday will be
wind potential. Powerful surface low tracks towards the Eastern
Great Lakes with 850mb flow Thursday evening over the GSP area of 40
kts with enhancement over the mountains to 50 kts. Diurnal mixing
under clear skies should give a surface wind reflection of some
concern over all of the area, with the strongest winds and gusts
over the elevated terrain. Winds continues all day on Thursday and
will begin to trail-off late Friday morning, with some elevated wind
potential through Saturday morning. Current high wind watch matches
area of expected strongest wind gusts well.
Skies will be clearing Thursday night/Friday with cold advection
keeping highs on Friday 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normal, and
the coldest temperatures in the forecast Saturday morning, with a
freeze or frost likely in the mountains and foothills of Western
North Carolina, though continued wind and dry RH will mute the frost
possibility in areas not expecting 2m temps below freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3pm Wednesday: From Saturday evening through Tuesday, weather
pattern goes through a transition from northwesterly flow behind
departing trough to 500mb ridging, followed by the next upstream
system which may bring some showers by next Wednesday. Most of the
extended forecast will be clear and dry with seasonally normal to 5
degrees above normal temperatures. EC generally agrees with
quiescent forecast Sunday through Tuesday, with a better
chance for precip by Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A shallow and stable wedge airmass remains
over the western Carolinas, encompassing all terminals. Moisture
trapped within this airmass should permit widespread low MVFR to
IFR cigs developing this evening. Relatively low-impact SHRA/TSRA
could develop as well. Overnight, however, a cold front will sweep
through. While that front is expected to scour out the restrictions,
strong TSRA are expected to develop along it as both midlevel
moisture advection and lapse rates increase over the wedge. Though
most likely these storms will remain elevated, isolated damaging
winds and hail will be possible. TEMPOs reflect the expected timing
of the frontally driven TS. Winds shift to NW behind the front at
KAVL, but remain generally S of W elsewhere. Expect strong gusts
to develop by late morning and continue into Friday. At KCLT,
westerly crosswind issues are likely late in the period.
Outlook: Winds will remain very gusty thru Friday. Much colder
air will continue to spill in behind the front, and may lead
to some frost formation in spots Fri morning and especially Sat
morning. VFR conditions should last into Monday.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 90% High 93% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 82% High 98% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 80% High 95% High 97% High 90%
KHKY Med 72% High 83% High 100% High 100%
KGMU Med 65% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND Med 72% High 100% High 97% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ018-026-028-
029.
NC...High Wind Warning from 8 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
NCZ035>037-051-056>059-062-063-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510.
SC...High Wind Warning from 8 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
SCZ002-003.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ001-
004>014-019.
Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ010-011-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...WimberleyHazardous weather outlook, Apr 5, 5:39 PM EST, 5 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
639 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
NCZ051-058-059-062-063-062245-
Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
639 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A round of thunderstorms will move into the region this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. These thunderstorms will present
primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
..Thursday...High winds and winter weather likely. Please refer to
the Wind Advisory for more information. Accumulating snow will also
be possible at the highest elevations through Friday morning.
..Friday...High winds and winter weather likely. Threat for elevated
winds continues into Friday, tapering off Friday afternoon.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.
NCZ033-048>050-052-053-501-503-505-062245-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
639 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A round of thunderstorms will move into the region this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. These thunderstorms will present
primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
..Thursday...High winds and winter weather likely. Please refer to
the High Wind Warning for more information. Accumulating snow will
also be possible at the highest elevations through Friday morning.
..Friday...High winds possible. Threat for elevated winds continues
into Friday, tapering off Friday afternoon.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.
GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001-
004>009-012>014-062245-
Rabun-Habersham-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Laurens-Chester-
639 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A round of thunderstorms will move into the region this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. These thunderstorms will present
primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
..Thursday...High winds likely. Please refer to
the Wind Advisory for more information.
..Friday...High winds likely. Threat for elevated winds continues
into Friday, tapering off Friday afternoon.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.
NCZ064-065-507-509-SCZ002-003-062245-
Transylvania-Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
639 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A round of thunderstorms will move into the region this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. These thunderstorms will present
primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
..Thursday...High winds likely. Please refer to the High Wind
Warning for more information.
..Friday...High winds likely. Threat for elevated winds continues
into Friday, tapering off Friday afternoon.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.
GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ010-011-019-062245-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-Greenwood-
639 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
Another and more dangerous round of thunderstorms will move into the
region this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. This second
wave of thunderstorms will present primary threats of large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
..Thursday...High winds likely. Please refer to
the Wind Advisory for more information.
..Friday...High winds likely. Threat for elevated winds continues
into Friday, tapering off Friday afternoon.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.
ark
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 5, 8:24 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
924 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
GAZ010-017-NCZ062-060200-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Macon NC-
924 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM...RABUN
AND MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...
At 924 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northeast of Hiawassee to 14 miles
southeast of Hayesville to 7 miles north of Cleveland, and moving
northeast at 65 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Clayton, Highlands, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky
Valley, MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK, Lake Burton and Moccasin Creek
State Park.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
TV stations, as well as local cable TV outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3488 8366 3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355
3500 8348 3500 8352 3513 8364 3529 8332
3523 8329 3524 8322 3516 8322 3509 8315
3506 8317 3499 8310 3493 8314 3488 8324
3482 8327 3470 8364 3476 8363 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 245DEG 55KT 3501 8372 3487 8366 3471 8380
HGSpecial weather statement, Apr 5, 9:26 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
GAZ010-017-NCZ062>064-060315-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
1026 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
...A SERIES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN
HABERSHAM...RABUN...SOUTHEASTERN MACON...TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...
At 1022 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a series of strong
thunderstorms moving from Clayton, Georgia to Brevard, North
Carolina, with a forward speed around 50 mph. These thunderstorms
will bring wind gusts of 45 mph to the ground across mountain areas
along the Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina state borders.
In addition, very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
will be possible in the heaviest downpours.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Brevard, Highlands, Mountain City, Rosman, Tiger, Dillard,
Sky Valley, Cashiers and Lake Toxaway.
The wind gusts may be strong enough to knock down a few trees,
especially in locations with saturated soil conditions. In addition,
deep ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas may
result. Do not drive through any flooded roadways. Turn around and
find another route.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.
&&
LAT...LON 3488 8366 3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355
3500 8348 3500 8352 3507 8356 3524 8316
3529 8294 3534 8281 3512 8265 3507 8275
3509 8279 3500 8310 3494 8311 3488 8324
3483 8327 3467 8363 3476 8363 3480 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 245DEG 49KT 3501 8331
HGSpecial weather statement, Apr 5, 9:33 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1033 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
NCZ051-058-060300-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
1033 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SWAIN AND NORTHERN GRAHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...
At 1033 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 15 miles southeast of Maryville to 7 miles
northwest of Robbinsville, and moving east at 40 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Town Of Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky
Mountains-Deep Creek, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Lake Santeetlah,
Fontana Lake, Fontana Village, Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek and
Smoky Mountains-Clingmans Dome.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3552 8386 3553 8382 3556 8377 3557 8363
3558 8360 3556 8358 3556 8350 3561 8345
3562 8340 3567 8334 3566 8330 3570 8325
3569 8325 3547 8333 3546 8335 3542 8336
3541 8335 3536 8337 3536 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 248DEG 34KT 3564 8373 3542 8387
HGSpecial weather statement, Apr 5, 10:06 PM EST, 36 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1106 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
GAZ017-018-026-028-060345-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
1106 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...
SOUTHEASTERN HABERSHAM AND HART COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...
At 1105 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles northwest of Homer to near Winder, and
moving northeast at 60 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Hartwell, Carnesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Royston, Reed
Creek, Lavonia, Gumlog and Mount Airy.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3423 8300 3427 8312 3425 8326 3426 8330
3423 8335 3426 8334 3429 8336 3443 8338
3446 8340 3449 8354 3443 8362 3445 8363
3467 8332 3448 8304 3448 8288 3437 8284
3429 8278 3425 8291 3421 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 234DEG 79KT 3446 8357 3403 8371
HG