Drought in Georgia, April 1 to 30, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1040 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm high pressure builds across our region through
the weekend. Unsettled weather returns early next week with a storm
system coming through late Monday and Monday night and then another
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1035 PM EDT Friday: Cold front now safely to our east. Still
see some potential for upslope shower activity on the TN border, so
a low precip prob will be kept there. Gusty W/NW will gradually
diminish through late evening.

Moisture associated with the upper low will continue over the
northern and central NC mountains, possibly spilling east into the
foothills through some of the gaps, but generally confined to the
upslope areas. Some gap winds possible tomorrow in typical areas but
speeds should be quite a bit lower than today. As for temperatures,
should see lows tonight a good 10 degrees colder than they were last
night, though still above seasonal normals as CAA decreases with the
filling upper system. Should be a really beautiful day on Saturday,
though a few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: In the wake of the departing upper level
low pressure system in the Atlantic, and a new bundle of energy
gradually organizing in the southwest CONUS, our area should be
under control of both ridging at the surface and aloft. As a result
quiet weather will be on tap Saturday night and Sunday.

As the structure of the atmosphere changes, which includes the ridge
axis moving ever more off to the east, this will allow moisture to
return on the back side of the departing Atlantic system and ahead
of the approaching upper low from the west. We have brought chances
of light rain showers into about the western two thirds of our
forecast area (FA) late Sunday night.

From that point it appears conditions will go down hill rather
rapidly. The aforementioned upper level low pressure system will
shift into northern Mississippi by Monday evening. Ahead of this
feature a warm conveyor belt of moisture, with increasing wind
fields in the lower levels will overspread the area. Strong upper
level divergence in concert with approaching energy aloft, will
quickly overrun the subtle E-SE surface flow. We expect a rapid
expansion of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the wee
hours early Tuesday.

0-6km bulk shear will be very favorable for severe weather, although
we might have to temper outlooks with SBCAPE remaining under 1000
J/KG. Nevertheless, something to be monitored closely. Addiontially
precipiable water values will be ramping up, therefore locally heavy
rain will be possible somewhere in the Monday afternoon into the
night, especailly in our southern FA.

We have followed guidance temperatures rather closely since they
were cluster rather closely during this part of the forecast cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday: Some wraparound moisture from the departing
low pressure system may bring some precip to mainly WNC Tuesday,
tapering off to just upslope-driven showers over the mountains
by the end of the day. A short upper ridge will move across the
area over the subsequent 24 hours, giving us a lull in the action
before the next Plains low spins into the Mississippi Valley. Warm
advection will begin over our CWFA late Wednesday, preceding the
eventual cold front. Models exhibit significant differences in the
evolution and track of the low thru the Midwest and Great Lakes
from late Tue thru Thu. This results in 18-24 hours of spread in
the timing of the fropa through our area.

The GFS suggests pulsey tstms could develop Wednesday afternoon, but
without enough instability to expect more than an isolated severe
threat. More concerning is its depiction of strong upper divergence,
robust deep shear, and sufficient CAPE Thursday afternoon as the
front moves in. This suggests a broken line of convection possibly
producing pockets of damaging wind. The EC track is further south
and brings us less dynamic lift; it suggests a low-end severe threat
Wednesday, with the front east of our area by Thursday morning.

Temps will be 7-10 degrees above normal Tue-Wed prior to the
fropa, dipping a bit Thu under cloud cover and/or in its immediate
wake. Mins Friday morning will be near normal as the upper trough
digs over the eastern states. Postfrontal moisture will still
support a small chance of precip across the area at that time,
and at very high elevations lingering rain may change over to snow.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period. Sfc boundary appears
to have moved east of all the TAF sites as of issuance time, now
that KCLT has come around to a NW wind direction. Some high-based
stratocu will continue to move overhead this evening and overnight.
This could pose a temporary broken ceiling, particularly for the
first few hours of the fcst, but think FEW-SCT will prevail
overnight. Winds will be gusty initially, but the pressure gradient
should relax and the gusts should diminish. A developing NW flow of
moisture should keep low clouds anchored to the TN border, and some
of this could move up the Fr. Broad Valley to KAVL overnight, but
this appears less likely than previous guidance indicated. It will
not be included at this time. Otherwise...fair weather with high
pressure building in from the NW through the period. Wind should
stay W/NW through at least midday Saturday. Could have a lee trof
late in the day that might mess up direction a bit.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue the weekend, but with
unsettled weather and associated restrictions again developing early
next week. MVFR possible starting Monday morning around daybreak.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     High  98%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
758 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
758 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.