Rip Current in Florida, May 13, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
345 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
In the near term, moderate southwest winds this afternoon have
held the Atlantic sea breeze up near the I-95 corridor. Just
enough moisture is in place for isolated to scattered showers to
develop along the sea breeze particularly in the area of strongest
convergence over metro Palm Beach and Broward Counties. Any
showers should dissipate or move offshore around sunset.

Radar and satellite data at mid afternoon showed an area of rain
and thunderstorms near the Interstate 4 corridor in Central
Florida extending back into the central Gulf of Mexico. This
activity was out ahead of a front extending from central Georgia
into the central Gulf.

This evening and tonight, expect this activity to continue slowly
sinking southward toward the area, but should not enter the Lake
Okeechobee region until late tonight as the front finally
approaches. Along with numerous showers ahead of the front, a
plume of deep moisture entrained in the deep southwesterlies ahead
of the front, along with sufficient instability as indicated by
forecast soundings, should allow for isolated to scattered
embedded thunderstorms.

Sunday, the front begins to wash out as it moves through the
area. The remnant trough will continue to push slowly southward,
promoting numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms along and
ahead of it during the morning. Models are in good agreement the
trough should be approaching the southern tip of the Florida
peninsula by mid afternoon, limiting the best chances for rain to
that part of the region late in the day. Behind the trough,
however, sufficient moisture may remain for additional isolated
showers at peak afternoon heating Sunday.

Over the coming work week, a mostly quiet and dry weather pattern
will be in place as a deep ridge of high pressure settles over
the southeast states. Monday winds should be dominated by the Gulf
and Atlantic sea breezes, but as the high develops the region will
see gradually increasing and deepening easterly flow. Just enough
low level moisture will be in place for isolated to scattered
passing showers from time to time, but no strong forcing showing
up for organized rain or thunderstorm activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterly winds this evening and overnight ahead of
an approaching front. The front will wash out into a trough as it
moves across the area late tonight and Sunday, bringing numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds will slacken Sunday but may
be locally gusty near any thunderstorms. Mostly light winds over
the area waters Monday, but a ridge of high pressure will build
north of the region through the week, with easterly winds
steadily increasing to moderate to fresh levels by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect all east coast sites except KTMB to go SSE or SE by 19Z at
10-13kts with seabreeze. KAPF and KTMB remain SSW 10-12kts. All
sites may see gusts to 20kts through sunset. Isold TSRA/SHRA with
late afternoon seabreeze collision along east coast, with best
chances near KPBI where have added VCSH 22Z-00Z. Winds diminish
and become SSW 5-8kts after 00Z. Front approaches late tonight,
with VCSH for KAPF after 14/09Z, and for KPBI-KFXE- KFLL after
14/15Z. TSRA threat too low to mention at time, but may need to be
added later as front approaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although relative humidity values are staying above 40 percent
this afternoon, gusty southwest winds are promoting very good to
excellent dispersion. Winds will slacken overnight and there will
be a good chance of showers developing as a weakening front moves
into the area. Embedded thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday
morning may bring a few lightning strikes and gusty/erratic winds.
As the front washes out south of the area Sunday afternoon,
slightly lower humidity and 20 ft westerly winds around 10 mph
will filter into the Lake Okeechobee region. If drier air moves in
faster than expected or a break in the clouds can boost
temperatures more than expected, critical conditions may develop
for a few hours Sunday afternoon particularly around Glades
County.

Over the work week, minimum relative humidity values over the
interior will be near 40 percent each afternoon. Wind speeds
generally under 10 mph early in the week will get a bit stronger
later in the week as a ridge of high pressure builds north of the
area. Depending on how much rainfall this area receives this
weekend and later coordination with forestry officials on the
status of fuels, borderline critical conditions may be a concern
any afternoon over interior sections.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  73  88  71  89 /  30  60  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  74  88  74  90 /  20  60  20  30
Miami            74  89  75  91 /  20  70  20  30
Naples           73  87  72  87 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...22/KS
MARINE...22/KS
AVIATION...88/ALM
FIRE WEATHER...22/KS

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1038 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
140600-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1038 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

...Threat For Showers and Thunderstorms Late Tonight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: A frontal boundary will approach South Florida late
tonight, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight. The highest threat will be along the Gulf coast into
Glades and Hendry county towards daybreak Sunday. The primary
impact from this activity will be occasional lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

There is a chance of thunderstorms over South Florida on Sunday. The
primary impacts from the thunderstorms will be lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall.

Low relative humidity values will improve on Sunday, then going
back to critical levels early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami
website at www.weather.gov/miami.