Rip Current in Florida, June 25, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
319 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight-Tuesday)...broad high pressure remains in
place across the western Atlantic tonight with generally moderate
southeasterly flow and a few lingering showers or thunderstorms
during the evening hours.

Models show a developing trough over the central U.S. deepening
southward on Monday. An associated cold front boundary will push
southeastward into northern FL, which in turn begins eroding the
aforementioned high across the region. Model X-sec moisture fields
show increasing values ahead and along the FROPA, which will
combine with sea breezes to bring increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity during the next couple of days. The leading
edge of the front should not reach the area, but its influence
will be enough to generate enough instability and deep layer
moisture for some storms to become strong, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Temperatures will remain near normals with afternoon highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s.

Long Term (Tuesday Night-Saturday)...expect the active wetter
pattern to continue through the end of the work week as the
western Atlantic high pressure struggles to build back into the
region. By Saturday, stronger subsidence and a drying trend should
begin bringing back a more typical summer pattern with sea breezes
resulting in afternoon convection favoring interior and Gulf coast
areas.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to expand
into Florida through Monday morning with mainly southeast wind
prevailing across the coastal waters. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will increase during the work week as a trough/front
complex moves across northern Florida during the first half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing across South Florida. Radar and
satellite trends indicate scattered showers developing over the
Lake Okeechobee region. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also
likely to form over the next few hours across interior sections
and move generally toward the northwest which may move near KAPF.
East-southeast winds around 10 knots today except variable at KAPF
due to showers and potential for the gulf breeze to move near or
over the terminal. Winds become light overnight before picking up
again out of the southeast after sunrise Monday. Cannot rule out
isolated showers overnight into the morning hours Monday, but
best chances for convection will be after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  91  76  89 /  20  40  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  79  90 /  20  40  20  50
Miami            79  90  79  91 /  30  40  20  50
Naples           75  90  76  90 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...17/AR
AVIATION...22/KS

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
340 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
251945-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
340 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible, Mainly Interior and Gulf Coast...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for the Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk for rip currents for the
Atlantic coast beaches.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible today, with a slight chance
for much of the southeast metro area, and a chance in the interior
and Gulf coast this afternoon. The main hazard will be lightning.

No other hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A moderate risk of rip currents may continue at Atlantic beaches
through the middle of the week.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day, mostly in the
afternoon across interior sections, through the week. The main
threats will be lightning and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.