Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 15, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
931 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

...Locally heavy rain and lightning expected this afternoon...

.UPDATE...Low level ridge axis will reside across the south central
part of the peninsula today. This afternoon the region will see
more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this early
afternoon through mid evening. Southwest low level flow along the
Nature Coast will prevail today will help advect scattered
convection initially into the Suwannee Valley and isolated
convection over interior SE Georgia. This morning, water vapor
imagery indicated a little vort lobe rotating around the base of
the upper level trough. This disturbance is near Tallahassee area
and is advecting east-southeast that will be the impetus inition
of convection. Along the coastal region to the Space coast, a
southeast wind will prevail with precipitable water values around
1.9" residing there. The east coast sea-breeze will push further
inland around Flagler and southern St. John's county this
afternoon where up the coast the sea breeze is anticiptaed to be a
little more pinned. Eventually the sea breezes will merge around
or just west I-95 this afternoon where scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Showers will be more
numerous over NE Florida where the best moisture resides and more
isolated to scattered across the northern tier counties along the
Altamaha River Basin. Locally heavy rain and lightning the main
concerns given the relatively high PW (1.8-2.0 inches) and surface
based capes (2000-4000J). The storms will fade out in the evening
after loss of heating.

&&

.AVIATION...Another round of afternoon scattered storms expected
and have VCTS at all terminals with PRB30 for TSRA with
intermittent MVFR conditions through the afternoon as some heavy
showers are anticipated across the region. Thunderstorms will
begin to wane markedly toward sundown with some residual but isolate
storms around the I-95 corridor to the coast thhrough 03z.
Otherwise, most locations will have VFR conditions this evening. Patchy
low clouds and fog possible during the pre-dawn hours Friday
morning and may have ocnl MVFR cigs at GNV and VQQ between 09Z-
13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Sfc ridge will remain east and southeast of the
area waters maintaining south to southwest flow through
Friday except for east coast sea breeze each day. Scattered
storms will move offshore during the late afternoon/eve.
Slightly stronger southerly flow Thu night and Fri night as
a sfc trough develops inland over SE GA...increasing local
pressure gradient. During the weekend, sfc ridge lifts a little
northward with speeds still aob 15 kt. Winds may begin to turn
a little more south to southeasterly Sunday through early next
week as tropical wave moves through the eastern Gulf/Yucatan.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk along the northeast Fl beaches
due to a long period swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  71  90  72 /  40  30  60  30
SSI  86  75  86  76 /  30  30  40  30
JAX  89  72  89  72 /  50  40  60  30
SGJ  86  72  86  72 /  50  30  50  40
GNV  89  71  88  71 /  50  30  60  20
OCF  89  71  88  71 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Cordero/Shashy/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
432 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-160830-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
432 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

...Locally Heavy Rainfall from Slow Moving Thunderstorms...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Today...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Slow moving thunderstorms will again cause locally heavy rainfall
this afternoon and early evening, with 2 to 4 inch accumulations
possible. A few storms may become strong as well with gusty winds
and frequent lightning.

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at area beaches today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected through the period. The main thunderstorm hazards
continue to be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.