Sea breeze storms and resultant outflow boundaries merged over a very moist airmass with light steering winds. Very slow moving, heavy rainfall producing storms caused flooding south of Ocala.
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Sea breeze storms and resultant outflow boundaries merged over a very moist airmass with light steering winds. Very slow moving, heavy rainfall producing storms caused flooding south of Ocala.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 2:41 PM EST, 54 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 341 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 ...SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY... .Currently... Afternoon surface analysis depicts a low pressure trough just north of Lake Okeechobee that is nudging northward through the Florida peninsula. Surface ridging (1021 millibars) was centered near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Aloft...a shortwave trough was progressing southeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the axis of deep-layered Atlantic ridging situated across south Florida as was building westward. A cutoff upper level cyclone was spinning over eastern Texas. This weather pattern is promoting a deepening southwesterly flow aloft, which has resulted in rapid moistening of the boundary layer throughout northeast and north central Florida. A much drier air mass prevails over inland portions of southeast Georgia, where a flat cumulus field prevails on latest visible satellite imagery, accompanied by dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. Initially low-topped convection developing earlier this afternoon along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor has punched into the dry layer that prevails above 750 millibars (8500 feet) per the morning soundings at Jacksonville and Tallahassee, but this dry layer is also keeping coverage to widely scattered thus far over northeast and north central Florida. A relatively weak surface pressure pattern locally is resulting in slow movement of convection that has developed, with locally heavy downpours recently over Bradford, Clay, Putnam, and Marion Counties. Temperatures at 19Z ranged from around 90 over inland southeast Georgia to the mid 80s at the northeast Florida coast. .Near Term...this Afternoon through Sunday... Mesoscale boundary interactions originating from existing convection along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor and the St. Johns River basin should result in an overall increase in coverage in between the I-75 and I-95 corridors in northeast Florida through sunset. Convection and outflows will also propagate into inland southeast Georgia later this afternoon, mainly for locations south and southwest of Waycross. Storms that manage to sustain updrafts and tap into the mid-level dry air will have the potential to produce isolated wet microbursts in these areas, with frequent lightning strikes and localized flooding possible as well due to the slow movement of the convection. We expect activity to shift westward this evening, with a decrease in coverage overnight inland, followed by an increase in convection overnight over the coastal waters as a warm air advection pattern develops in the low levels per model soundings and the surface trough approaches from the south. The tropical air mass will eventually overspread inland southeast Georgia overnight, with inland lows generally near 70 and coastal lows in the mid 70s. SREF probabilities also suggest low stratus development along and west of U.S. Highway 301 during the predawn hours on Sunday. Ridging aloft will build along the U.S. eastern seaboard on Sunday, with the upper low only nudging slowly eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The axis of western Atlantic ridging will remain in place over the southeastern U.S., maintaining a weak onshore flow pattern over our area. Convection may get an early start along the coast tomorrow as the onshore flow potentially directs nocturnal convection towards the beaches around sunrise. Coverage of this activity should still only be widely scattered, and convection will shift to the I-95 corridor by noon and will then increase in coverage towards the U.S. Highway 301 corridor during the afternoon. We expect numerous showers and thunderstorms between Highway 301 and I-75 by late afternoon. Our regional atmospheric profile will be more saturated tomorrow as PWATs in the 1.9-2.1 inch range will be in place, and a relatively weak pressure gradient will likely result in slow moving convection that will have the potential to produce localized flooding. An earlier start to convection and more cloudiness should keep highs in the mid to upper 80s inland, with low to mid 80s at the coast as onshore winds prevail. .Short Term...Sun night through Tue night... Synopsis...Increasing rain chances and near seasonal temperatures. Heavy rainfall potential returns due to slow storm motion and high atmospheric moisture. Main thunderstorm hazards will be the potential for flooding and wet downbursts with gusty winds 40-60 mph. Sun night...Evening showers and isolated tstorms focused near the I-75 corridor due to sea breeze and outflow mergers will slowly dissipate and migrate westward through midnight under light ESE steering flow. Mostly cloudy skies will continue through the night with mild and muggy conditions as low temps fall into the low to mid 70s. Mon through Tue night..Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge axis north of the forecast area Mon then the ridge axis settles southward and across the local area through late Tue. Aloft a fair weak flow pattern will be in place with broad upper level low pressure meandering just west of the local area and upper ridging dominating the western Atlantic. The mean 1000-500 mb ridge axis will remain north of the forecast area...with a plume of deep layer moisture with precipitable water values at or above 2 inches over the forecast area through this period. The position of these synoptic features in concert with high atmospheric moisture content and weak upper level dynamics will favor a dominant east coast sea breeze regime with showers/isolated tstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters early each morning...translating inland through early afternoon. Convection will blossoming further as it drifts inland between the Highway 301 and Interstate 75 corridors each afternoon through the early evening before gradually fading after sunset with loss of heating. A low chance of showers or isolated tstorm will continue each night given such a saturated airmass especially toward the Atlantic coast due to onshore flow enhancing convergence. Temperatures will trend near climo values with highs in the mid/upper 80s despite mostly cloudy skies with low temperatures above normal values in the low/mid 70s given cloud cover. .Long Term...Wed through Sat... Wed through Fri...Elevated rain chances continue through the end of the week as steering flow transitions to more from the south as the mean 1000-500 ridge axis shifts down the SE Atlantic coast due to a trough carving southward from Mid-west. This flow regime will enable both sea breezes to develop and press inland into the afternoon/evening with a merger focused between I-75 and Highway 301. PWAT values remain above 2 inches with will continue heavy rainfall potential and storm motion will remain fairly weak generally near 10 kts. Maximum temperatures will trend near normal under mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 80s. Lows will trend above normal with values in the 70s. Sat...A weakening trough axis will sink southward across Al/GA which will veer steering flow to the SSW as the mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge settles across south Florida. PWAT values drop generally below 2 inches per the GFS40 across NE FL while continuing near 2 inches across SE GA closer to the frontal zone. Will continue with above climo rain chances for most areas with the higher values across SE GA near the front with a gradual downward trend in rain chances across NE FL due to drier air. Temperatures will warm above climo values under SW flow with highs near 90 inland. && .Aviation... Periods of MVFR CIGS around 2500 feet will remain possible at the regional terminals through around 22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least 07Z. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain focused inland through 02Z, with mostly brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible at GNV and VQQ. Outside of thunderstorm activity, easterly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots are expected through 22Z at the Duval County terminals, SSI, and SGJ. There is the potential for low stratus ceilings and possibly some fog at GNV and VQQ after 08Z tonight, and a few showers and thunderstorms could impact SGJ, SSI, and JAX towards the 10Z-13Z time frame as well. Timing and intensity remain in question, so we used VCSH during the predawn and early morning hours. && .Marine... The frontal boundary that passed through our waters on Wednesday and Thursday has weakened to a surface trough and is positioned across south Florida. What remains of this feature will drift northward into our waters by late Sunday before dissipating early in the week. Atlantic high pressure will otherwise remain in control of our weather pattern, with its axis situated to the north of our waters through at least midweek. Onshore winds will continue through Tuesday, with our local pressure gradient weakening on Sunday and Monday, resulting in light wind speeds. Seas of 3-4 feet in the offshore tonight will subside to 2-3 feet by Sunday night Rip Currents: Moderate risk expected to continue through Sunday due to onshore winds. && .Fire Weather... Increasing moisture this week with elevated rain chances each day due to active sea breezes. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected and will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Prevailing winds will be ESE Sun/Mon then transition to more from the south through the end of the week with a continuation of active sea breezes. Low daytime dispersion are expected Sun and Mon due to light transport winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 89 72 88 / 10 40 20 50 SSI 75 85 75 84 / 30 30 10 30 JAX 71 87 73 86 / 20 30 10 40 SGJ 73 86 74 84 / 20 30 10 30 GNV 71 88 72 86 / 20 70 20 60 OCF 72 89 72 87 / 30 70 30 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && Nelson/Enyedi/Peterson
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000- Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union- Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion- Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling- Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn- Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden- 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 ...SCATTERED STORMS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight... Scattered afternoon and evening Storms are expected across Northeast Florida...mainly over inland sections along the I-75 corridor. The main thunderstorm hazard will be locally heavy rainfall although stronger storms will also contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. Onshore winds will keep an elevated threat for rip currents. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday... Scattered to Numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected through the period. The main thunderstorm hazards will be gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and lightning. Onshore winds will keep an elevated threat for rip currents. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
406 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2017
FLZ040-102045-
Marion FL-
406 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2017
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...
At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Anthony, or 10 miles northwest of Ocala, moving
northwest at 10 mph.
Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.
Locations impacted include...
Reddick, Lowell and Flemington.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2927 8241 2928 8241 2942 8234 2937 8212
2919 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 119DEG 10KT 2930 8225
SHULERSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 431 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2017 FLZ040-102115- Marion FL- 431 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MARION COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT... At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Santos, or near Ocala, moving north at 5 mph. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor wind damage. Locations impacted include... Ocala, Ocala Airport, Silver Springs Shores, Santos and Belleview. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 2903 8201 2909 8227 2929 8219 2927 8193 TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 192DEG 6KT 2914 8213 SHULER
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 152 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:34 UTC.
3 heavy rain, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The WeatherStem station at Dr. NH Jones Elementary school measured 3.32 inches of rainfall within about 1 hour.
A station between Ocala and Santos measured 4.85 inches within about 90 mintues.
Localized heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in an urban area just south of Ocala. At 5:15 pm local time, county dispatch relayed that a vehicle near the intersection of SW College Road and SW 27th Avenue stalled in flood water, and water was to the top of the driver seat in the vehicle. Rescue units extracted 2 males in the vehicle, no injuries reported. At 5:20 pm local time, a spotter reported that the right hand land of north bound U. S. Highway 441 was impassable south of Ocala. At 6:15 pm local time, a sink hole formed near SW College road that trapped 1 to 2 vehicles. The exact cost of damage was unknown for this flood event, but it was estimated for the event to be included in Storm Data.
A spotter measured 4.62 inches in less than 30 minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, June 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 706217, 706219, 706216, 706218.