Wildfire in Florida, April 5 to 7, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
421 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
One final day of quiet weather is occurring today and tonight,
with only Palm Beach County having a slight chance of
showers/possibly a thunderstorm this evening as Gulf/Atlantic/Lake
Breezes collide. Mid/Upper-level trough and associated low
pressure...which are responsible for severe weather outbreak to
our north over the southeastern states today and tonight...will
lift from TN Valley into the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday.
The trailing cold front will enter the Florida Panhandle this
evening and move into Central Florida overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are likely along and ahead
of this front, but this activity should generally stay north of
our region through around sunrise. By then, diurnal instability
will be at a minimum and best dynamics will be well north of the
front, over the Mid-Atlantic. Thus, severe weather is not
anticipated. Still scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Thursday, mainly early in the northwest, and closer to
midday for the remainder of South Florida. This will give the East
Coast, with the aide of gusty southwest winds, a heat up well into
the 80s, with some low 90s possible.

Behind the front, winds will be gusty out of the northwest and
much drier air will spill into the region. Several days of nearly
clear skies and below normal temperatures will ensue. Temperatures
Friday will not reach 80 degrees. Interior portions of South
Florida will likely see some lows in the upper 40s to low 50s,
with nearly all regions dropping below 60 degrees by late Friday
night.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
High pressure settles into the region Saturday, then it's center
will move some north and east of the region for Sunday into next
week. North winds will turn easterly as the high pressure moves,
and onshore flow will lead to a slow moistening trend for the
start of next week. Temperatures will edge closer to average, and,
aside from a rogue shower or two moving in from the Atlantic, dry
weather will dominate into the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Some gusty southerly and southwesterly winds are expected ahead of
a cold front that will cross Thursday, so small craft operators
may need to use caution. After the front and any showers and
thunderstorms associated with it pass, hazardous northerly winds
are expected Thursday night, and a Small Craft Advisory may be
needed. Seas of up to 7 feet are also possible. It now appears
these conditions may persist to at least Saturday, before high
pressure builds overhead and winds lessen for the latter half of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
SSE 13-16 KT winds will persist along the east coast TAF sites
through 06/0100Z, then dwindle to below 10 KT. During the night,
winds will slowly shift to the south. Aft 06/1500Z, winds are
expected to increase to 12-14 KT from the southwest. VCSH conds
and a sct/bkn cloud deck, with bases 2500-4000 ft MSL, are
introduced as the front approaches.

The gulf sea breeze should dwindle aft 06/0100Z. Aft 05/1600Z,
expect increasing WSW winds to 14-16 KT, bkn cloud bases around
3000-4000 ft MSL, and VCSH conds as the front approaches.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Westerly wind behind a cold front may lead to a moderate risk for
rip currents on Gulf beaches Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday, but is very unlikely to bring widespread
significant rainfall. Behind the front, unusually dry air will
spill into the region, and could last into early next week.
Although there is some concern of critical thresholds /low
relative humidity and gusty north winds/ being approached in
Glades County Thursday afternoon, the entire region looks at risk
for having relative humidity values below 35 percent with winds of
15 to 20 mph on Friday. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch is being
hoisted for Friday. Similar conditions are likely Saturday and
Sunday, and it's quite possible the Fire Weather Watch will need
to be extended.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No records set today, and none are forecast to be set Thursday.
However, east coast climate sites will be quite close to daily
high maxima records ahead of the cold front passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  73  89  59  77 /  20  40   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  75  90  63  77 /  10  30   0   0
Miami            75  90  64  78 /  10  30   0   0
Naples           74  81  60  74 /  10  40   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...23/SK
MARINE...23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...23/SK
FIRE WEATHER...23/SK

CLIMATE...23/SK

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
060215-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1005 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Isolated afternoon thunderstorms late tonight...
...Moderate risk of rip currents Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are across the area late
tonight as a cold front approaches the region. The primary threat is
cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday across South Florida. The
primary threat is cloud to ground lightning.

Hazardous marine conditions are likely on South Florida waters late
Thursday through early Saturday as winds increase to around 20 knots
and seas reach 7 feet.

The risk of rip currents may be elevated at Gulf Coast beaches
Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.