NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 8:27 AM PST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 8:27 AM PST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
927 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will produce excessive
heat through Saturday. Monsoon moisture will slowly spread
over the area followed by a more substantial increase
Sunday, bringing greater thunderstorm chances along with cooler
temperatures and higher humidity.
&&
.UPDATE...Tweaked PoP and sky grids up just a little more this
afternoon and evening through much of Clark County and down the
Colorado River. Radar continues to show light returns in this area,
most likely corresponding to virga. Analysis shows modest CAPE in
this area, and higher resolution models suggest that it will remain
there through the afternoon into the evening. No other changes at
this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
510 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017
.UPDATE...Touched up PoP grids this morning and today to account
for latest high-res model and radar trends. Area of at least
shallow convection is expanding/enhancing from about Sentinel, AZ,
arcing up towards Primm, NV, and even week returns further arcing
north of Las Vegas through southeast Lincoln county, NV. The
latest HRRR runs keep this activity going through 18Z as it
rotates around the high. While not much is expected out of this,
some a few in-cloud lightning flashes have been observed this
morning near Needles, CA. Added at least slight chances of
thunderstorms south of Vegas through the morning.
-Steele-
.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night.
The focus for the short term continues to be heat and monsoonal
moisture.
Moisture has been seeping into the area as forecast, with PWATs
increasing over the last 48 hours. Thus far, it has been enough to
spark a few thundershowers over the mountains. The building
upper-level high has indeed done a number to suppress activity,
with no major complexes in Arizona or northern Mexico, a change
from the previous few days. However, there is abundant cloud cover
and shallow convection still occurring underneath the high. This
brings a few challenges. Will the cloud cover limit heating? Will
the near record temperatures be enough to overcome inhibition and
spark thunderstorms on the higher terrain? Have taken a middle of
the road approach, keeping the excessive heat along with slight
chances of mountain thunderstorms once again pretty much through
the period.
Of note early this morning is a small/subtle circulation near
Flagstaff, AZ. It does not appear to be producing much but cloud
cover now, however it should arrive in our CWA later this afternoon
if it holds together, which could be the straw that breaks the
camel's back and may help to initiate a thundershower or two,
especially over the Hualapai, McCullough, and/or Spring Mountains.
With most moisture concentrated at the mid and upper levels still,
would expect any activity that does develop to be capable of gusty
winds.
There is a possibility of outflow or other moisture surge to begin
working northwestward Saturday morning, however, confidence is
fairly low for any activity on Saturday. A more substantial
increase in monsoonal moisture is still expected by Sunday as high
pressure begins to relax, with decreasing temperatures and
increasing thunderstorm chances.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.
A somewhat moist south/southeast flow will continue Monday with most
of the forecast area having at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms. The models are still suggesting slight drying
beginning in the far western portion of the forecast area so lower
elevations of western San Bernardino and Inyo County will have
minimal chances of thunderstorms. The best chances look to be over
Mohave County where the deeper moisture and best instability is
forecast. Temperatures Monday look to be pretty close to normal. A
more southwesterly flow is forecast to gradually push drier air into
the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday and by Thursday we are
limiting the mention of thunderstorms to only eastern Mohave County
and the Sierra crest. As a result of the somewhat drier air,
temperatures will creep up a couple of degrees by Thursday.
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds are once again expected to remain
on the light side, following typical diurnal trends. East winds
should dominate by late morning, but confidence falls in the
afternoon with mountain thunderstorms possible. If they do
develop, outflow could enter portions of the valley. Otherwise,
the valley should remain dry with SCT to possibly BKN clouds
around 20 kft and hot temperatures continuing to push density
altitude up to around 6000 ft.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Light diurnal winds following typical summertime trends
expected to persist today for most terminals. Thunderstorms are
possible on the mountain ranges, especially the Sierra Nevada,
Spring Mountains, and McCullough Rang, and any activity that does
develop will likely produce at least locally gusty winds.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT..Strengthening high pressure is
expected to keep monsoon activity at bay through the end of the
week, therefore, spotter activation is not anticipated. However,
spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or
impacts according to standard operating procedures.
.FIRE WEATHER...Very hot temperatures are expected to continue
through Saturday. Moisture has increased enough for a chance of
thunderstorms, mainly over the Sierra, Spring Mountains and Mojave
Preserve. There is potential for wetting rain with these storms.
Most areas will have a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday as
a south to southeast flow brings in a little more moisture.
Temperatures will drop a little bit as well. Dry air will then
gradually push in from west to east Tuesday through Thursday.
.HYDROLOGY...Ongoing minor flooding may continue in the eastern
Sierra as temperatures remain high. Afternoon thunderstorms over the
mountains may aid snowmelt runoff to keep some drainages elevated
over the next few days. Remember, never drive through flooded
roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland
adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience areas of
standing water.
.CLIMATE...Temperatures will once again soar across the region,
approaching record highs for the date.
Records for Friday, July 7, 2017
Location Forecast High Record High (year)
-----------------------------------------------------
Las Vegas, NV 114 114 (1989)
Kingman, AZ 109 109 (1905)
Barstow-Daggett, CA 113 116 (1989)
Bishop, CA 102 106 (1989)
Death Valley, CA 126 127 (1989)
&&
Update..................................Morgan
Short Term/Aviation/Hydrology/Climate...Steele
Long Term/Fire..........................Harrison
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