Hail in Arkansas, March 27, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1110 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to add severe wording to the entire region. Also raised
high temperatures across southern half of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A potent upper level low pressure system over southwest Missouri
late this morning will continue to move slowly east today. Mid
level height falls and steepening mid level lapse rates will
continue to overspread a destabilizing low level airmass. A
morning sounding from the Mississippi State sounding team in
OKOLONA, Mississippi, showed some minimal capping based around
2.7 kft. Latest GOES 16 7.34 um shows eastern extent of elevated
mixed layer (EML) spreading into western portions of the forecast
area.

Latest model guidance suggests afternoon SBCAPE values exceeding
2000 j/kg, due to increased low level moisture, along with mid
level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 c/km, associated with the EML,
along and east of the Mississippi River this afternoon. Deep layer
shear around 40 kts will remain through the afternoon over the
region to support storm organization. The degree of instability
combined with the modest deep layer shear should support a mixed
mode of supercell structures and short line segments this
afternoon and evening. Considering the degree of instability, a
few very large hail reports (> 2 inches), along with damaging
winds will be possible today. Model guidance suggests that low
level winds will continue to veer through the afternoon which
could limit the overall tornado threat. The greatest storm
coverage and severe potential will be this afternoon through mid
evening. Stay weather aware today and please pass along any
reports of severe weather or damage to NWS Memphis via NWSChat,
NWS Memphis Webpage, our twitter and facebook feeds.

Updated forecast zones and grids have been sent.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low
centered over eastern KS, moving slowly east. A shortwave,
possibly convectively-enhanced, had lifted out of north TX into
the Arklatex. Storms over central AR associated with the shortwave
were embedded in elevated moist conveyor belt and had entered the
Midsouth early this morning. KNQA radar showed a 50 KT
southwesterly jet at 2-3 kft. These storms were rooted in an
elevated layer and were moving through an environment of 5.6 to
6.0 C/KM midlevel lapse rates.

The chances for severe storms will increase toward midday with
diurnal heating, the arrival of steep midlevel lapse rates (near
7 C/KM), and steep midlevel height falls. Large hail, possibly
very large in the strongest storms, will be possible along with
damaging winds. Although low level winds will veer slightly
through the morning, RAP model depicts 0-3km SRH in excess of 250
M2/S2 along and north of I-40 this afternoon, suggesting some
midlevel rotation potential. A tornado or two will not be out of
the question but main impact of the midlevel rotation may be to
increase updraft strength and hail size. Much will depend on the
amount of low level instability left following morning showers
and thunderstorms.

Storms should exit the TN River valley area of the Midsouth early
this evening.

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the Midsouth on Tuesday,
following a weak cold frontal passage under low amplitude ridging
aloft. The front will return north as a warm front Wednesday, with
low end thunderstorm chances returning under strengthening
diffluent southwest flow aloft. A low level capping inversion
should limit storm coverage until significant height falls arrive
late Wednesday night, with the approach of a deep closed low over
the southern plains. Medium range model discrepancies remain with
respect to the evolution of this closed upper low, but latest
trends show a more neutral or slight positive tilt to the system
may lessen severe threat for the Midsouth. Much time remains for
the Thursday's severe potential to come into sharper focus.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

Lingering SHRAS will continue over the Mid-South for a couple of
hours. A gust front from overnight convection is currently pushing
through KMEM at this time and will likely reach KMKL by 12Z. Winds
behind the gust front have switched around to the WSW and are
sustained between 12-20 KTS with gusts up to 35 KTS. Only expect
this to occur for an hour or two before returning to the SW and
decreasing a tad in speed. Redevelopment of convection will depend
on how quickly the atmosphere can recover from this morning's
convection. Latest HRRR only shows spotty development until around
21-23Z when a line begins developing over the MO Bootheel and NW
TN. The latest RAP is very similar so have the most confidence
that KMKL will be impacted by the line between 23-02Z and KTUP
between 02-04Z. Will add TEMPOS for those time periods. For KMEM
and KJBR will just leave mention of VCTS wording. SW winds will
turn around to the NW behind the line with speeds diminishing
through the evening. Low clouds will linger at KTUP as the front
stalls just to the south. Meanwhile, KJBR may keep a 3500-4000 FT
due to wrap around clouds behind the low pressure. KMEM and KMKL
will be in between the cloud cover thus would not be surprised to
see some fog development.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms along and east
of the Mississippi River, and a Slight Risk west to the west.

Thunderstorms will expand in coverage through midday across the
Midsouth, and reach peak intensity with daytime heating this
afternoon. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly over the Enhanced Risk area. An isolated
short-lived tornado or two will be possible during the afternoon
over the Enhanced Risk area.

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will decrease during the
evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today, and may be needed
on Thursday.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
209 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     HAIL             4 NE PARIS              36.34N 88.26W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       HENRY              TN   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
211 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
214 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JEB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
218 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ092-271945-
Hardin TN-
218 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR...

East central Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 218 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located 7 miles north of Walnut
Grove, or 11 miles east of Savannah, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in east central Hardin County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3508 8805 3513 8814 3537 8802 3535 8801
      3533 8802 3530 8802 3530 8800 3529 8798
      3514 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 211DEG 38KT 3516 8804

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRADFORD                36.07N 88.82W
03/27/2017                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BUILDING FLOODED

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
241 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             DYERSBURG               36.04N 89.38W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       DYER               TN   PUBLIC

&&

JEB