What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 26, 5:47 PM CST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 26, 5:47 PM CST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
647 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017
.AVIATION...
Convection is beginning to die down with conditions beginning to
improve as the line of showers and thunderstorms progresses east
out of Arkansas. Overnight IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities
will settle in across most terminals. Some gusty winds will be
possible as well overnight. Widespread VFR conditions will return
by mid morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Biggest issue in the short term will be dealing with convection
ahead of the cold front tonight, as well as remaining severe
chances, and heavy rainfall possibilities.
As of now, cold front is basically from near Harrison to between
Mena and Poteau. Convection out ahead of the front has been severe
in places, shifting from northern/western Arkansas this morning to
southern Arkansas this afternoon. The south will be where the
highest severe chances will be, as low pressure pushes northeast
into Arkansas, and interacts with an instability axis over
southern into southeastern Arkansas. Additional rainfall could be
heavy at times, which could lead to localized flash flooding
issues.
Convection will push eastward through the evening, as the front
moves on across the state. Front will shift eastward, stalling out
briefly to the south of Arkansas. By Friday, the front will move
back to the north, then stall out in the vicinity of western and
northwest Arkansas. This will lead to issues into the weekend.
More on that in the long term discussion...
LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
After a drying out period during the end of the short term period,
the long term is shaping up to be a very wet period, with perhaps
some severe storms sprinkled in for good measure.
First, the pattern. Broad troughing over the Rockies will yield
southwesterly flow over the Mid and Lower Mississippi River Valley
areas Friday night into Saturday. The trough will deepen Saturday as
it transitions to a closed upper low, before ejecting northeast
across the southern and central plains late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Meanwhile at the surface, a stalled frontal boundary
will be positioned across northern Arkansas. This will act as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms, and resulting heavy rains,
Friday evening through early Sunday. Eventually, as the upper low
ejects into the Saturday night, this front will shift east and exit
the state. Until it does so however, copious amounts of Gulf
moisture will stream northward into Arkansas to feed the convection
that develops, which will result in heavy rains. Forecast PWAT
values in some guidance are nearing or above all-time highs. Whether
this is realized is irrelevant, as the pattern supports PWAT plumes
that will be well above normal.
Now, onto the nitty gritty. There are two hazards for this upcoming
weekend. First, forecast rainfall amounts from Friday afternoon
through Sunday are quite impressive. Some guidance indicates double
digit rainfall totals could occur in portions of west central
Arkansas during this period. While it's hard to say whether that
will be realized or not, what we are confident in saying is that
widespread rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches appear to be a
very good bet. This axis of heavy rain will likely be centered from
around Johnson/Logan counties up through Sharp county, with the
heaviest amounts predicted to be from perhaps Stone or Searcy county
back to the west. This will generate some flash flooding and river
flooding. The scope of the flooding will depend largely on exactly
where that axis of heavy rain sets up and how wide it is, and
obviously the end amounts. However it would probably be wise to pay
attention to the forecasts over the next day or two as clarity in
the details will offer a better idea of what to expect.
The second hazard will be the severe storms aspect. Forecast
soundings through this period, look sufficient for supercell
thunderstorms. While several waves of convection are expected, the
most likely periods for severe storms looks to be Friday evening and
Friday night, and then again late Saturday night as the upper trough
moves through the plains. Instability and shear all appear
sufficient to produce at least some severe weather, with damaging
winds and hail being the primary threats. Tornadoes will also be a
possibility, but the nocturnal timing of storms makes this a
difficult call. As with the flooding aspect, time will bring clarity
to the details of this setup so individuals are encouraged to
continue to monitor future forecasts.
By midday Sunday the upper trough will be overhead, while the cold
front and associated convection will be east of the state. A much
needed dry spell is expected to round out the long term period.
FIRE WEATHER...
As conditions will be rather wet into next week, no significant
fire weather issues are anticipated.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&
Aviation...61
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 26, 7:45 PM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
845 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
845 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
Rain will exit Arkansas to the east. Patchy fog is expected to
develop.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday
A very unsettled pattern is expected Friday through Sunday. Severe
weather and excessive rain appear likely at this time.
On Friday, a front will be nearly stationary across northern or
central Arkansas. North of the front, showers and thunderstorms will
develop mainly north of Little Rock, especially during the overnight
hours.
Precipitation across the northern counties will be ongoing heading
into Saturday. Later in the day, a storm system in the Plains will
drag a cold front toward the state. Ahead of the front, a large
area of showers and thunderstorms will sweep through the region
Saturday night and Sunday.
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible with
this long duration event. More than a half foot of rain could fall
in the northwest half of Arkansas. If this pans out, widespread and
life threatening flash flooding would occur. Also, area tributaries
would flood, including the Black, Buffalo, Cache, Eleven Point,
Fourche La Fave, Petit Jean, Spring, and White Rivers.
Forecast details are still being worked out, including where the
stationary front will set up on Friday, and the timing of the
aforementioned bouts of precipitation. Please continue to monitor
the latest forecasts from your National Weather Service concerning
this potentially serious situation.
.Spotter Information Statement...
Spotter activation will likely be needed Friday through Sunday due
to expected severe weather and high water.
&&
Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
59/51/46
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 26, 4:06 PM CST, 5 hours 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0443 PM TSTM WND DMG BRINKLEY 34.88N 91.19W
04/26/2017 MONROE AR EMERGENCY MNGR
THERE WAS EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES AT
BRINKLEY.
&&
57Local storm report, Apr 26, 4:13 PM CST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
513 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM TSTM WND DMG COTTON PLANT 35.01N 91.25W
04/26/2017 WOODRUFF AR EMERGENCY MNGR
REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN SOUTHERN
WOODRUFF COUNTY SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 306.
&&
61Local storm report, Apr 26, 4:16 PM CST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
516 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0453 PM TSTM WND DMG MCCRORY 35.26N 91.20W
04/26/2017 WOODRUFF AR EMERGENCY MNGR
REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 269.
&&
61Local storm report, Apr 26, 4:17 PM CST, 5 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM HAIL 3 S AUGUSTA 35.24N 91.36W
04/26/2017 E1.00 INCH WOODRUFF AR EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
61Local storm report, Apr 26, 4:20 PM CST, 5 hours 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
520 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM FLASH FLOOD PERRYVILLE 35.01N 92.80W
04/26/2017 PERRY AR PUBLIC
A ROAD WAS FLOODED...AND A CAR WAS STRANDED IN WATER.
&&
57Local storm report, Apr 26, 5:02 PM CST, 4 hours 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
602 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0535 PM HAIL 3 W WARREN 33.61N 92.12W
04/26/2017 E0.75 INCH BRADLEY AR STORM CHASER
&&
EVENT NUMBER LZK1700103
CAVANAUGHNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 696177, 696136, 696195, 696175, 696201, 696152, 696197, 696196, 696202, 696198.