Heavy Snow in Alaska, November 4 to 5, 2017

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
530 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement out through the middle of next
week and show a fairly progressive pattern over northern Alaska.

Aloft, at 500 mb, an upper level ridge currently over the western
Interior will quickly move east today. A upper level trough will
move over the west coast today, into the western Interior tonight
and across the central and eastern Interior tomorrow. Another
ridge will move eastward across the state Monday and Tuesday. A
shortwave will push into the west coast Tuesday and and into the
Interior Tuesday night. By Wednesday the flow across northern
Alaska becomes more zonal.

At the surface, A 1013 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will
move over Kotzebue Sound by this evening and into the western
Interior by Sunday morning. A 1028 mb high 250 NM N of Barrow will
move to 120 NM NE of Demarcation Point by this evening
continuing eastward. A 1016 MB low northwest of Wrangel Island
will move to 220 NM NW of Point Lay by this evening and to 250 NM
NW of Wainwright by early Sunday morning.

Central and eastern Interior: A relatively quiet day is expected
today with some fog and flurries in the morning. A weather system
will bring snow as it moves east tonight into Sunday. For
Fairbanks we expect that snow will begin early Sunday morning and
will continue through Sunday evening. Snowfall amounts will
generally be in the 2 to 4 inch range. Higher totals will be seen
in the Alaska Range (especially along the Parks Highway) where 5
to 9 inches of snow is possible. Relatively quiet weather is
expected for Monday and Tuesday under the upper ridge with a
cooling trend in temperatures. There will be increased chances
for snow beginning on Wednesday as the flow turns more westerly.

West Coast and Western Interior: Precipitation will move into the
West Coast today and into the western Interior this evening. For
areas along the coast south of the Bering Strait the precipitation
will mainly be in the form of rain. Elsewhere the precipitation
will be in the form of snow. Snow amounts will mainly be in the 1
to 3 inch range. In areas north of Kotzebue and west of Ambler
snowfall amounts will be in the 4 to 7 inch range. Locally higher
amounts are also expected in zone 227 east of McGrath. Quiet
weather is expected for Monday with another round of precipitation
expected on Tuesday. Winds will increase today along the west
coast at the low moves inland. No coastal flooding issues are
expected given the quick moving nature of the low.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Snowfall will move across the area
tonight and Sunday. Along the coast snowfall totals will be in the
1 to 3 inch range. In the Brooks Range snowfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches will be seen. Snowfall will linger on the eastern Arctic
Coast on Monday. Another round of snow is expected Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ245.
&&

NOV 17