Alaska, 2017

Blizzard in Alaska, January 4 to 5, 2017

January 4 to 5, 2017 · NWS AFG · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Strong high pressure over northwest Alaska coupled with low pressure over the Arctic created strong winds over the north slope of alaska on January 4th through the early morning hours of the 5th. Zone 201: Blizzard conditions were observed at the Wainwright ASOS.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.

Strong high pressure over northwest Alaska coupled with low pressure over the Arctic created strong winds over the north slope of alaska on January 4th through the early morning hours of the 5th.

Zone 201: Blizzard conditions were observed at the Wainwright ASOS. The visibility was reduced to one quarter mile or less in snow and blowing snow. There was a peak wind gust of 48 kt (55 mph) at the Wainwright ASOS.

Zone 202: Blizzard conditions were observed at the Barrow ASOS. The visibility was reduced to one quarter mile or less in snow and blowing snow. There was a peak wind gust of 46 kt (53 mph) at the Barrow ASOS.

zone 204: Blizzard conditions likely at Point Thompson AWOS. Observations were disrupted.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 2:50 PM AKST, 9 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 2:50 PM AKST, 9 hours 10 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a ridge over mainland Alaska
and a trough over NE Russia and the Sea of Okhotsk will retrograde
Wed and Thu with the ridge moving west over the eastern Bering Sea
and West Coast of Alaska by Thu. The ridge will then become higher
amplitude and morph into an omega block over the West Coast of
Alaska by the weekend.

Several strong short waves and their associated surface systems will
move east through the ridge over the next several days bringing
rapidly changing weather to northern Alaska through Thu and
keeping temperatures well above normal. Weather will become much
drier and quieter by Fri with valley surface temperatures falling
to below normal in the Interior while the coasts and hills remain
above normal under this ridge. These dry conditions will persist
into next week under the blocking ridge.

Surface...
A 989 mb low 600 nm north of Barter Island will move northeast.
A polar front stretching from the low to Banks Island to Barter
Island to Bethel will move to Old Crow to Chandalar Lake to
McGrath by 3am Wed...and to Dawson to Tok by 3pm Wed then
continuing SE. Expect 2-3 inches of snow with this front.

High pressure over the West Coast will build over the Interior
west of the front tonight and Wed causing rapid clearing.

An Arctic Cold front stretching from the low to Barrow to
Provideniya will move to Barter Island to Point Lay by 3am Wed and
then move north of the Arctic Coast as an arctic warm front Wed.
Expect minor blowing snow and sw winds g25 kt with the cold front.
winds will decrease and will see a chance of snow with the warm
front.

A 1008 mb low in the far western Bering Sea will move to just west
of Anadyr as a 1006 mb low by 3am wed...to just southeast of
Wrangel Island as a 1007 mb low by 3pm Wed...to 100 nm north of
Barrow as a 1010 mb low by 3am Thu...and to Banks Island as a 1014
mb low by 3pm Thu. A cold front stretching south from the low will
move to Point Hope to Gambell by 3pm Wed...to Deadhorse to Bettles to
the Yukon Delta by 3am Thu...and then move to Banks Island to
Northway to Glennallen by 3pm Thu. Expect 2-4 inches of snow with
the front along with significant winds and blowing snow. Will see
south winds 40-50 kt with the front in zones 213 and 207 Wed pm
and will issue bliz watch for this. Across the remainder of the
west coast and the interior will see west 30-40 mph winds and
significant blowing snow with the front leading to winter weather
advisory for zones 208 209 210 211 212 216 and 217 for Wed pm. At
this time looks like will see similar conditions in the Eastern
Interior Thu but will issue SPS at this time since it is two days
out and less certain.

Will issue Bliz watch for all of North Slope for Wed night in zone
201 and Thu for the remainder. Expect 2-4 inches of snow along
with significant blowing snow and west winds 40-50 mph. At Barter
island could see gusts to 70 mph Thu making this and extreme
blizzard.

A 1055 mb high building over the West Coast of Alaska Thu will
build over Interior Alaska Thu night and Fri. This will add to
the strong winds in the Eastern Interior and Eastern Arctic
Coast Thu that will decrease overnight. Will see clearing under
this high. Pressures this high means that altimeter settings will
be over 31.00 inches over the West Coast Thu and over the Interior
and North Slope Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 mb models initialize well and show similar solutions through
3pm Thu. Good agreement between models on the long wave pattern
continues through the weekend on with slight differences on short
waves in the western Bering and NE Russia from Thu night on but
little affect on Northern AK. Precipitation patterns similar
through Fri and we will use GFS for amounts.

At the surface models initialize well at the surface except for
all models being 6-8 mb too weak over the Copper River Basin.
For this reason gap flow through the Alaska Range passes will be
much stronger than models indicate through tonight. Models similar
through 3am Thu...then start to see differences in speed and
strength of low moving east across the Arctic Coast Thu. Favor the
faster movement shown by the ECMF and NAM on this low Thu. What
this means is that there will be a larger isolobaric jump in the
Eastern Arctic Coast with the potential for very strong barrier
jet winds at Kaktovik on Thu. Will bump up winds on the Eastern
Arctic Thu as a result.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf possible at Gambell and in the Bering Strait Wed with
SW gales.

Elevated water levels along the southern Chukchi Sea Wed night
and Thu but will not be as high as with the storm of last weekend
and no flooding expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 17

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 3, 6:27 PM AKST, 5 hours 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
627 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

AKZ207-209-210-050600-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including...Point Hope...Shishmaref...Kivalina...Espenberg...
Kotzebue...Selawik...Noorvik...Buckland...Deering...Candle...
Council...Haycock...Pilgrim Springs...Serpentine Hot Springs...
Taylor
627 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

Another storm moving northeast through the western Bering Sea
will bring the potential for elevated water levels along the
southern Chukchi Sea Coast and all of Kotzebue Sound Wednesday
night and Thursday. At this time water levels are forecast to
remain at or below the levels reached with the storm of last
weekend. Storm surge values are expected to be in the 3 to 4 foot
range in Kotzebue.
Special weather statement, Jan 3, 6:30 PM AKST, 5 hours 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
630 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

AKZ207-209-210-050600-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including...Point Hope...Shishmaref...Kivalina...Espenberg...
Kotzebue...Selawik...Noorvik...Buckland...Deering...Candle...
Council...Haycock...Pilgrim Springs...Serpentine Hot Springs...
Taylor
630 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

...ELEVATED WATER POSSIBLE FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA
COAST...

Another storm moving northeast through the western Bering Sea
will bring the potential for elevated water levels along the
southern Chukchi Sea Coast and all of Kotzebue Sound Wednesday
night and Thursday. At this time water levels are forecast to
remain at or below the levels reached with the storm of last
weekend. Storm surge values are expected to be in the 3 to 4 foot
range in Kotzebue.

Event by event

2 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

Blizzard, Northern Arctic Coast

When
January 4, 12:00 AM AKST to January 5, 12:00 AM AKST
Where
Northern Arctic Coast forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS

Blizzard, Western Arctic Coast

When
January 4, 4:33 AM AKST to January 5, 3:53 AM AKST
Where
Western Arctic Coast forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS

What these are

Blizzard
Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 677889, 677522.