Hail in Wyoming, June 29, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
223 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Tonight...Shortwave progged to move across our counties this evening
with scattered thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming progged to
move east southeast across the Nebraska panhandle this evening.
Based on the models and the instability axis, best chance of severe
storms will be south of a Douglas to Alliance line this evening and
along and east of I-25.

Thursday...Cooler and a more shower filled day with deep upslope to
700 mb, limiting instability. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon, and with CAPES only 500 to 1000
J/kg and shear around 40 knots, will have less chance for severe
storms and more producing locally heavy rain due to weaker winds
aloft.

Thursday night...Showers and thunderstorms will take longer to
dissipate with soupy airmass in place as a shortwave approaches from
southwest Wyoming.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves overhead, and with a moist
airmass in place from the low to mid levels, at least scattered, and
more likely numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected in
the afternoon east of Interstate 25. Main focus for storms will be
along and east of a Lusk to Kimball line, where low level
convergence will be maximized along a frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Monsoonal fetch of subtropical moisture from the Four Corners
into the central Rockies and High Plains will keep conditions
unsettled Friday night through Sunday, with scattered mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable
water values will range from 0.75 inches west of Laramie Range
to 1.50 inches east Friday night and Saturday, so there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall with some of the convection.
The severe threat will be low with MUCAPE values 500-1000 j/kg
and shear values less than 30 kt. A shortwave trough will push
across the central and southern Rockies Saturday, and into the
plains Sunday. Models indicate somewhat drier air will return
Sunday through early next week as zonal flow aloft diverts the
subtropical moisture to the south. There will be some instability
though, so cannot discount isolated diurnal convection mainly
over and near the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming. Slightly
below normal temperatures Saturday, moderate to normal Sunday, and
above normal Independence Day through Wednesday. Very warm
temperatures, breezy west to southwest winds and low humidities
will heighten the fire danger over east and south central WY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

No significant change from the 12Z taf issuance. A couple short
range models are indication convection developing over the
southeast WY mountains early afternoon and moving ESE onto the
adjacent valleys and plains by 21Z, including RWL, LAR and CYS.
Confidence not high/coverage more isolated this afternoon, so
maintained VCTS at these aerodromes. Western NE aerodromes may not
see convection form until around 00Z. Potential for strong/gusty
outflow winds and hail east of the Laramie Range where instability
and wind shear will be greater. Convection will come to an end
later this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Minimal concerns based on projected humidities and winds, especially
through Friday with a moist air mass in place.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
929 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
301530-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
929 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF PANHANDLE
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE,
INCLUDING DOUGLAS, WHEATLAND, CHEYENNE, LUSK, TORRINGTON,
CHADRON, ALLIANCE, SCOTTSBLUFF, KIMBALL AND SIDNEY.

MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
CARBON COUNTY AND ALBANY COUNTY, INCLUDING LARAMIE, WITH GENERAL
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY INCLUDING
RAWLINS.

AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING, PRODUCING A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALONG INTERSTATE 25.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ALONG INTERSTATE 25 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS
MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE, PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR HIGHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOME
OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
MUCH LESS HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

WYZ103>106-109>117-301530-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
929 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RUBIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
145 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

WYZ117-118-292015-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-
145 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 144 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NATURAL FORT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

AT 143 PM MDT...PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT TERRY BISON RANCH
SOUTH OF CHEYENNE.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
LARAMIE COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6.

LAT...LON 4105 10506 4108 10486 4101 10462 4100 10468
      4100 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 310DEG 11KT 4102 10487

RUBIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

WYZ103-106-292145-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
253 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PLATTE AND
NORTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 253 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GARRETT...OR 28 MILES WEST OF WHEATLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTVIEW CIRCLE AND GARRETT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4212 10566 4224 10548 4206 10506 4183 10536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 315DEG 23KT 4213 10551

HAMMER