Flash Flooding and Hail in Missouri, June 29 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

After several quiet days with just isolated afternoon storms, we
turn to a more active pattern beginning tonight. Much of the evening
should be rather quiet and pleasant as high pressure over the Ohio
Valley exerts its influence into at least the eastern Ozarks.
There still could be some isolated storms over western and central
Missouri this evening, but most areas will remain dry. Convection
is expected to develop tonight over northern Kansas into northern
Missouri and then track south to southeast into the area late
tonight and early Thursday. Will likely see a weakening trend as
it moves into the area. This will then set the stage for re-
development across the area later Thursday into Thursday evening.
Main surface boundary will be arched across northeast Oklahoma
into Arkansas late in the day. Initial cells may be develop over
southern Kansas just north of the boundary, where stronger
moisture transport resides. Development further east into the
Ozarks is possible along residual outflow boundary from morning
convection. With the increased low level flow, shear will be
better that we have seen for a while, so cannot rule out the
potential for some marginally severe storms. Convection likely be
sustained Thursday night with weak, albeit noticeable low level
jet continuing.

As for lows tonight, another comfortable night expected over the
eastern Ozarks with lows in the lower 60s. A little warmer to the
west with lows around 70 for southeast kansas and the far southwest
Missouri.  Temperatures a bit tricky Thursday dues to the convective
potential along with clouds. Highs look to range from the lower 80s
across the eastern Ozarks to near 90 in far southwest Missouri
and southeast Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

As has been advertised for the past several days, upper flow becomes
more zonal for the holiday weekend and still expecting a rather
active period of weather. 12Z models have continued their northward
trend with placement of front and corresponding highest convective
potential. However. Exact placement/timing of shortwaves and frontal
position still difficult, especially in the Saturday and Sunday time
frame.

The first shortwave will likely traverse the region on Friday,
interacting with the northward moving frontal boundary. Low level
flow stronger across Kansas and Oklahoma, but moisture transport
does nudge into the area later in the day. Will likely see periods
of convection over the area Friday into Friday night.

The current suite of medium range models would place the frontal
boundary across central Missouri Saturday into Sunday, but this
could to change with later forecasts. Shortwaves traversing
through the flow, along with moisture transport will sustain
periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially focused near and
to the north the frontal zone. A bit stronger shortwave will move
across the Plains Sunday and into the area Monday. This will serve
as an impetus to push a cold front through the region which will
lead to rain chances ending from west to east later Monday into
Monday night. Still expecting heavy rainfall through the period
and will continue to mention the limited risk for flooding.
Current thinking is heaviest rain would be over central Missouri.
Severe weather looks to be conditional based on instability.

By Tuesday and Wednesday upper ridging builds across the region,
with temperatures heating up once again into the 90s for afternoon
highs and little in the way of precipitation expected.

Emergency managers, park officials, and those with plans along area
streams and rivers should continue to monitor the latest weather
information going into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop across portions of
southern Missouri this afternoon. We have covered this threat with
VCTS wording for now, however amendments may be needed if storms
are expected to directly impact any of the aerodromes.

While storms will then tend to diminish this evening, additional
thunderstorms will then be possible Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-302015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

 LIMITED HAIL RISK.
 LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
 ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
 ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. WHILE
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TEND TO DIMINISH THIS
 EVENING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO
 PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
 LATE TONIGHT.

 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD
 FROM THESE STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
 STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...
 AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
 AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF
 SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
 HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BRING AT LEAST
 A LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

 EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND
 SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

RABERDING