Heavy Rain in West Virginia, June 12, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
253 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front continues southward push. Dry Monday. Moisture
increases Tuesday into Wednesday along with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Corrected for SPC outlook.

Convection beginning to fire and will continue through the heating
hours as the front...still north of I-64 as of 1745Z...continues
its push to the south. Cooler and drier air eventually settles
in...with dewpoints forecast to fall into the overnight hours.
This...with clearing skies...will allow temperatures to fall back
into the 40s and 50s tonight. SPC has added a sliver of marginal
to the Tug Fork valley for today.

Sunny and dry Monday with the column dry through 300mb. Periphery
of the ridge still dominates in a another quiet June weather day
tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge generally keeps the area dry through Wednesday.
Mid level vort max begins to approach the area along with mu capes
on the order or 1500 j/kg Wednesday afternoon. This will bring a
threat for tstorms and higher qpf potential with juicy PWs on the
order of 2 inches for Wednesday afternoon. May need to watch for
water issues, but given how dry the area has been lately, we may
go unscathed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sharp upper level trough dives south Thursday night bringing
another forcing mechanism for more showers and tstorms. Upper
level trough lingers in the region as an upper level low develops.
Dry, northerly flow develops and dries out for Saturday. Interestingly
enough, the GFS tries to bring in a tropical system late Sunday as
a result of this upper low though this appears as an outlier run
so did not even go slight chance with this.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front sinking north to south will bring a wind shift and wind
gusts to 20-30kts. Visible satellite imagery already showing
enhancement ahead of and along the cold front...which still lies
north of the HTS-CRW-BKW line as convection develops...aided by
heating. Expecting scattered coverage...and will use VCTS/CB for
coverage in the TAFS. Per usual...amendments may be needed for
cells that could hit terminals directly.

No fog tonight in a drier airmass.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence waivers slightly in the
possibility of a cell hitting a terminal.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible Wednesday afternoon in storms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
259 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-131900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
259 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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