Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, May 2, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST OFF THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ENE OF THE AREA RESULTING
IN WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS NOW COVERING THE CWA DUE TO SSW
WINDS. TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SCTD TSTMS WERE
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT OVR SW VA...ERN
TN...AND WRN AND CNTRL NC/SC. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ENE...AND
WILL PUSH INTO OUR WRN/CNTRL COUNTIES THIS EVENG. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ASIDE FM ANY STRONG OR SVR TSTMS THIS
EVENG...EXPECT INCREASING POPS TO CATEGORICAL (80%) OR LIKELY
(60-70%) FM W AND N...TO THE SE...FM LATER THIS EVENG INTO TUE
MORNG...AS LO PRES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACH AND PUSH INTO WNW
COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ESE AND JUST OFF THE CST TUE THRU TUE
NGT...WITH CAT OR LIKELY POPS TUE MORNG...GRADUALLY DECREASING FM
NW TO SE. ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ANY SVR TSTMS ON TUE...AND
MAINLY OVR SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE...COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THESE AREAS. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
60S TO THE UPR 70S. LOWS TUE NGT WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S TO NEAR
60.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA WED THRU THU...DUE TO
UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE
MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESPLY WED AFTN THRU
THU...ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HI TEMPS ON
WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT MAINLY IN
THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR TO START OFF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS LO CLOUDS HAVE
ERODED ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME MVFR HANGING ON AT SBY...BUT
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE LWR ERN
SHORE SO INCLUDED VFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP THERE. S FLOW
CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS RAIN
CHANCES GO UP. SHRAS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENG/OVRNGT. TSTMS ARE PSBL AS WELL BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN THE TIMING ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
EXPECTED TUE MORNG AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PREVIOUS MORNGS...WITH A
STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY STILL IN THE VICINITY. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL COTNINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK LOCALLY...WITH
GENERALLY S TO SW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DROP SSW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SW FLOW OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE 3-4FT AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THE WIND BECOMING NNE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE FLOW AOB 15KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...AJZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079-080-509>516-031645-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-
WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-
WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)-
WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO-
1245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ084-086>089-092-093-095>098-100-523>525-031645-
NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-WESTERN CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
1245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>025-VAZ075>078-085-099-031645-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-MIDDLESEX-ACCOMACK-
1245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ081>083-090-517>522-031645-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-JAMES CITY-WESTERN KING WILLIAM-
EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
1245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TG