A strong mid-level disturbance tracked from the Tennessee valley northeast across the region early on May 1st, reinforcing a cold air wedge in place at the surface across portions of Southwest Virginia. This wedge began to erode rapidly allowing the atmosphere to destabilize with showers and thunderstorms forming along a warm front inching north, and again along a cold front pushing east…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A strong mid-level disturbance tracked from the Tennessee valley northeast across the region early on May 1st, reinforcing a cold air wedge in place at the surface across portions of Southwest Virginia. This wedge began to erode rapidly allowing the atmosphere to destabilize with showers and thunderstorms forming along a warm front inching north, and again along a cold front pushing east producing episodes of severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds proved to be the main threat.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 6:52 PM EST, 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 752 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FINALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 750 PM EDT SUNDAY... UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH AND WEST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ENOUGH RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED SINCE EARLIER RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERE STRENGTH UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS IFFY GIVEN LESS CAPE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FEW OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY... FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. LOOKING FURTHER WEST...ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER KY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING THIS WAVE IS GOING TO NOSE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THINKING IS THE SAME AS EARLIER...IN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SCT/BKN LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM SE WV TO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. SVR PARAMETERS FAVOR STRONGER STORMS IN WV/KY/FAR SW VA...BUT WEAKEN FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STRONGER STORMS TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD PREVENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE 1 INCH+ WE HAD EARLIER TODAY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH. FOR LATE TONIGHT...SHOWERS WANE AND WILL SEE CONTINUED SW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. FOG PARAMETERS ALSO FAVOR GOOD COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE CONVECTION. MONDAY...WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO MIDDLE TN IN THE MORNING...SLOWLY EAST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT THAT THE 2ND OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER THEN CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER LOW LVL INSTABILITY. THE BEST SHEAR LOOKS TO SITUATE ITSELF FROM FAR SW VA/SE KY NORTHWARD INTO THE MD/PA AREA...SO THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT IN OUR FAR WRN CWA...WITH MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EAST. BETTER LOW LVL AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING UNTIL AFTER 21Z/5PM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO COULD BE ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING EVENT. WITH NO WEDGE MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SKY COVER...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 80S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT SUBJECTING AREA TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS. PENDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FAVOR READINGS NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO ROUND. OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY... UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA FROM THE WEST WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE KLWB-KBLF VICINITY BETWEEN 00-01Z/8-9PM. STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A STORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. SHOULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST PERHAPS IN LINE FORMATION TOWARD KROA/KBCB AFTER DARK BEFORE WEAKENING. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT THESE LOCATIONS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF HEATING. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SHRA MENTION AT KDAN WHILE INCLUDING A VCSH AT KLYH. ONCE THE UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VA WHERE ADDED BANDS OF SHRA COULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY. OTRW QUESTION WILL BE LOW LVL MOISTURE LEADING TO LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DESPITE EXODUS OF THE WEDGE. HOWEVER GIVEN MOISTURE AND ADDED RAINFALL IN SPOTS THIS EVENING...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN FOG/STRATUS MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. ALSO LIFR POSSIBLE AT KLWB IF SKIES CLEAR FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL IFR ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MVFR AT KBLF/KROA. AS SW FLOW KICKS IN MONDAY MORNING A TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN VFR CIGS TO TAKE PLACE AT ALL SITES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAST TIMING OF RETURNING THIS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A PREVAILING SHRA MENTION AT MOST SITES WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT VCTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED MVFR/IFR IN PLACE WITH RAINFALL FINALLY TAPERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR AT TIMES FOR MID AND LATE WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS ESPCLY MOUNTAINS...PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 747 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-034-035-043>047-058-059-030000- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-PATRICK-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA- CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 747 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ009>014-017>020-022>024-033-030000- SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA- BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN- 747 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ007-WVZ042>044-507-508-030000- TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 747 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
555 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
NCZ001-018-012230-
WATAUGA-ASHE-
555 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL WATAUGA AND SOUTHWESTERN ASHE COUNTIES...
AT 555 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ROMINGER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOONE...
BEECH MOUNTAIN...
TODD...
SUGAR GROVE...
AND BEECH MOUNTAIN IN AVERY COUNTY.
THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 3634 8172 3633 8171 3635 8171 3640 8164
3627 8150 3616 8182 3619 8186 3619 8188
3621 8190 3622 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 239DEG 33KT 3620 8184
DSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
NCZ001-012300-
ASHE-
629 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ASHE COUNTY...
AT 629 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TROUT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JEFFERSON...
WEST JEFFERSON...
MOUNT JEFFERSON...
BALDWIN...
AND WAGONER.
LAT...LON 3656 8141 3651 8133 3648 8132 3648 8130
3647 8130 3646 8128 3644 8127 3632 8160
3637 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 235DEG 33KT 3636 8160
DSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
VAZ023-020030-
BOTETOURT-
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTY...
AT 758 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ORISKANY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORISKANY...
EAGLE ROCK...
AND GALA.
LAT...LON 3774 7978 3761 7968 3752 7997 3754 7998
3755 7997 3761 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 243DEG 23KT 3758 7995
DSThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:23 UTC.
3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
WDBJ television from Roanoke provided a social media video showing quarter sized hail falling for a short time at this location.
Quarter sized hail lasted for 10 minutes between 1047 PM EDT and 1057 PM EDT along Campbell Avenue based on radar estimates.
Hail fell along Kimball Road in the community of Concord, VA.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 637690, 637693, 637694.