Name: Drought in Guam, May 1 to 31, 2016
Start: 2016-05-01T00:00
End: 2016-05-31T23:59
Location: Guam

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: $250,000
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Prolonged drought continues across the Western Pacific.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 5:43 AM UTC, 8 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 5:43 AM UTC, 8 hours 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
343 PM CHST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED ISLAND SHOWERS NEAR AND WEST OF GUAM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE MARIANAS WATERS...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE
MARIANAS WATERS SEEN ON SATELLITE. SEAS ARE ONLY 2-4 FT AT THE
BUOYS WITH MODERATE TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO WINDS...BUT REFRESHED MANY OF THE WAVE
GRIDS TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE LATEST WW3 FROM 00Z.
MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO WEATHER AND SKY COVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS. NOW LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRYING SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. BUT THEN
MOISTURE RETURNS MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. FROM THURSDAY ON...BACK TO PARTLY
CLOUDY BUT KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASED ON ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE FUELS ARE VERY DRY OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND...SOUTHWEST GUAM
HAD A SOAKING RAIN OF OVER AN INCH LATE THIS MORNING...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...ALONG WITH
ONLY MODERATE WINDS...SHOULD PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM
DEVELOPING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA FROM NEAR KOSRAE TO JUST SOUTH OF
MAJURO. SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALSO OVER SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE AND
ALONG THE EQUATOR FAR SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. MODELS INDICATE THE AREA
OF CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS KOSRAE
STATE INTO POHNPEI STATE DURING THE COMING DAYS. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD UP TO 7N-8N AND PROVIDE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJURO AND NORTHERN RMI DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AT LEAST...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN RMI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 2N152E
ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OVER CHUUK STATE...ALTHOUGH ONLY A
FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF WENO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
WETTER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND INDICATES THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER MAY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE FOR NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE VARIABLE FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
WENO...BUT THE ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE SHOULD RECEIVE PLENTY
RAINFALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

YAP AND KOROR...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN PALAU TO
NEAR YAP IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR YAP THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
NEAR KOROR THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROUGH EDGES WESTWARD...THEN DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Belau

When: May 1, 12:00 AM GST to May 31, 11:59 PM GST
Where: Belau forecast zone
Crop damage: $100,000
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

The experimental drought assessment of the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that some locations in the Republic of Palau remain at Exceptional drought (drought level 4 of 4) at the beginning of the month. Increased rain through the month reduced the category to Extreme drought (drought level 3 of 4). The Island nation received good rain through the month of May with 12.53 inches falling at the NWS Weather Office until the 25th, which is 3.96 inches above average.

The Ngerimel Reservoir likely recovered from its very low levels and the flow from the Ngerikiil River improved.

Peleliu, south of the main population center Koror, received 9.62 inches through the 25th of the month, which is close to average.

Drought, Micronesia

When: May 1, 12:00 AM GST to May 31, 11:59 PM GST
Where: Micronesia forecast zone
Crop damage: $50,000
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

Rainfall did fall across Yap state, but despite the rain Yap remained in extreme drought (drought level 3 of 4). Through the 25th of the month 7.62 inches fell compared to the average of 6.60 inches.

Ulithi also saw improved rainfall with 5.25 inches falling compared to 6.60 inches.

Woleai in eastern Yap State received 7.33 inches compared to the average of 7.96 inches.

Drought, Marshall Islands

When: May 1, 12:00 AM GST to May 31, 11:59 PM GST
Where: Marshall Islands forecast zone
Crop damage: $100,000
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

While a few islands received beneficial rainfall many areas of the Marshall Islands remain in Severe drought (drought level 2 of 4) or extreme drought (drought level 3 of 4).

Between May 1st and 25th, Majuro saw 10.04 inches of rain fall which is 1.10 inches above the average and Wotje, a northern atoll, saw 5.15 inches as opposed to their average 4.54 inches. Other islands did not fair as well as witnessed by Utirik, which only saw 0.3 inches compared to the usual 6.87 inches.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Guam, May 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654460, 654461, 654462.