Damaging Winds in Virginia, June 16, 2016

Name: Damaging Winds in Virginia, June 16, 2016
Start: 2016-06-16T19:01
End: 2016-06-16T19:43
Location: Virginia

June 16, 2016 · NWS RLX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.

Low pressure was situated north of the region in the lower Great Lakes during the afternoon of June 16th. A warm front was draped from Lake Erie south and east through Maryland and the Delmarva Peninsula, with a well-developed warm sector in place to the south and west of this boundary. By the afternoon, surface temperatures had warmed into the low to mid 80s across southern Ohio and most of West Virginia. A moist and unstable air mass was in place, with surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s and nearly 3000j/kg of ML CAPE analyzed by RUC analysis. 500 mb flow was near 50 knots and a possible large-scale damaging wind event was expected. Thunderstorms developed in east-central Ohio near the I-70 corridor after 2pm and moved south and east over the Ohio Valley and into West Virginia. Later in the evening after the main line of thunderstorms exited West Virginia to the east, a few thunderstorms at the tail end of this line produced wind damage in southwest Virginia.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 16, 2:02 PM EST, 4 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 2:02 PM EST, 4 hours 59 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
302 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong compact mid level disturbance drops southeast through our
vicinity tonight. Severe storms possible. Drier air Friday night
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

Have updated the grids to reflect svr watch...specifically the wx
grids to finesse the svr attributes. Otherwise...just some tweaks
on timing of convective line with much of the forecast reasoning
remaining the same from the morning update. Convective line
beginning to ramp up in the vicinity of the front from CMH/ZZV/PHD
right on schedule. This will continue to strengthen and speed up
with the help of cold pool propagation potential. There remains
uncertainty just how far to the W the line materializes...again
with areas across NE KY to S WV/SW VA more entrenched in dry air.
However...as mentioned in the update below...any storms that make
it into that area have a svr potential.

Key conceptional environmental ingredients continue to be
advertised by the models for a bowing convective line with
damaging winds. Rich theta e feed into the NE side of low pressure
over the Upper OH Valley amidst relatively weak mid level storm
relative flow compared to in the lower levels further exacerbates
the threat. The actual ambient mid level flow will be increasing
to 40-45 kts amid a good amount of mid level dry air ahead of the
upper trof. DCAPE values further support this wind threat as well.
We will look for genesis up around NE OH around 16z and evolving
into mainly a linear feature as it races SE. Timing looks to be
18-19z for OH River and should be exiting the mountains by 22Z.
There remains considerable uncertainty regarding just how far to
the SW the convective line develops. There exists some capping
over E KY and SW WV and the concern is the dry air will hinder
development. Having said that any storms that do make it into
these areas will be capable of damaging winds as well. Given the
uncertainty though...have elected to trim back pops into the low
chances as one heads SW of a line from Point Pleasant to
Charleston to Beckley.

As noted above the primary threat is by far damaging
winds...however large hail remains a threat as well given
steepening lapse rates. The tornado threat is low but a few
spinups along the line cannot be ruled out. The flood threat
remains low given the speed of the system but downpours are likely
in any storms which could cause some urban issues.

Temps today will make a run into the upper 80s and winds will be
gusty absent any convection as well given efficient momentum
transfer and a mixed layer up to H7.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Late tonight...flow will turn more northwesterly and weaken...as the
low continues to sag south of the area. There will still be some
lingering showers tonight as moisture and energy wrap around the
low...but drier...and cooler air will gradually filter into the
region for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Excellent agreement and consistency among the models as ridging
at the surface and aloft builds in behind the departing upper low
and showers. The upper ridge axis will be far enough west to keep
the really hot air off to the west. Thus...a tranquil period with
dry weather and plenty of sunshine...with only slightly above
normal temperatures...are expected for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are consistent in driving a cold front across the area
early next week in the continuing northwest flow aloft.
However...while there are still timing differences among the
models...all are slower but still quite progressive in bringing
this front through during Tuesday. For Monday...still dry weather
as high pressure shifts east of the area...but somewhat warmer
and more humid Monday on southerly flow. Expect scattered showers
and storms to accompany the front on Tuesday. Cooler and drier
high pressure moves in for the remainder of the work week.

No heat wave is seen in the near future.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong to svr line of convection will race SE thru SE OH and
into WV by 21Z. The threat for damaging winds remains the primary
hazard...though large hail will be possible as well. Confidence on
the SW extent of the line remains in question with low confidence
on direct impact for KHTS/KCRW/KBKW such that VCTS was used in the
TAF period for this aftn. Confidence high enough on direct impact
for N terminals for inclusion of 1 to 2 hr IFR groups with strong
but not svr gusts...at least until closer to impact with
amendments. Winds will be gusty even outside of convection this
aftn with a well mixed atmosphere. Gusty winds to 30 kts are
possible outside of convection thru 22z. T

Main line of convection should exit to the east of the higher
terrain by 00Z...although widespread mvfr and local ifr
conditions are expected to develop later tonight as the upper low
drops down behind frontal passage. Gradual improvement on Friday
back into VFR as low stratus sct out from N to S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...High across SE OH/N WV thru evening...low to medium
S WV thru evening.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection this aftn may vary an
hour. Timing and development of mvfr/ifr conditions post
convection tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in lingering showers Friday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
In the rounds of convection on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night...heaviest rains were mostly in the Big Sandy/Tug and
Russell Forks and Twelvepole Creek drainages...some spilled over
into the Guyandotte Basin. One gauge in southern Wayne County in
the Cabwaylingo State Forest had 2.5 inches of rain. Another small
maximum hit the Hts asos with 2.17 inches. Harts of Lincoln
County had 2.4 inches. No significant flooding reported.

A secondary rain maximum in past 24 hours was from southern Perry
County Ohio east across Washington County into Pleasants County
WV.

The heaviest rains this afternoon and overnight tonight figured
over northern and central West Virginia...or further northeast
from the past 24 hour rainfall. So most of this area can handle a
1 to 2 inch downpour. Training appeared more likely further to the
north through east...but we will monitor how the convective
complex evolves today.

If we get a break this morning...will try to reset the storm total
rain on our 88D. Yet...at 08z showers still lingering over
mountain counties.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...30

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 1:06 PM EST, 5 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

OHZ066-067-075-083>087-WVZ006>008-014-015-036-171815-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-FAYETTE-
206 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CAUSING
POOR DRAINAGE AND STREET FLOODING. IF REPETITIVE STORMS
OCCUR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033>035-171815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-LINCOLN-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
206 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CAUSING
POOR DRAINAGE AND STREET FLOODING. IF REPETITIVE STORMS
OCCUR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ076-WVZ009>011-016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047-171815-
WASHINGTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
206 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CAUSING
POOR DRAINAGE AND STREET FLOODING. IF REPETITIVE STORMS
OCCUR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:58 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
658 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSBURG              39.28N  80.33W
06/16/2016                   HARRISON           WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER PHOTO OF A LARGE TREE UPROOTED ON HORNER AVE IN
            CLARKSBURG. TIME EST FROM RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601017

MAC

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:01 PM EST, 1 hour before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
701 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N DURBIN              38.56N  79.83W
06/16/2016                   POCAHONTAS         WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRANCHES DOWN IN NORTHERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601018

MAC

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:07 PM EST, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             HOTCHKISS               37.67N  81.37W
06/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       RALEIGH            WV   PUBLIC

            FELL ALONG LESTER HIGHWAY NORTH OF MULLINS NEAR
            HOTCHKISS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601019

MAC

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:12 PM EST, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     SNOWSHOE                38.41N  80.00W
06/16/2016  M65 MPH          POCAHONTAS         WV   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601020

MAC

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:32 PM EST, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             1 N SUMMERSVILLE        38.30N  80.84W
06/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       NICHOLAS           WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601021

MAC

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:57 PM EST, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
757 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             SUMMERSVILLE            38.28N  80.84W
06/16/2016  M2.10 INCH       NICHOLAS           WV   PUBLIC

            PHOTO AND VIDEO OF HAIL RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601022

MAC

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:02 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Buchanan

When: June 16, 7:01 PM EST
Where: Buchanan County, Grundy
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: 911 Call Center
Coordinates: 37.280, -82.100

There were a few trees down in the county including in Grundy.

Thunderstorm Wind, Dickenson

When: June 16, 7:43 PM EST
Where: Dickenson County, 0.88 mi SE of Russell Mart
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: 911 Call Center
Coordinates: 37.210, -82.290

There were numerous reports of trees and power lines down throughout Dickenson County, especially between Clincho and Haysi.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Virginia in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Virginia, June 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 633060, 633059.