Flood in Virginia, June 15, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
455 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front extends from Ohio into central Virginia. This front
will move northeast into northern Virginia overnight. An upper
level Low over Wisconsin will move southeast into the southern
Great Lakes by Thursday morning. This Low will then move southeast
crossing the Mid Atlantic states Thursday night and Friday. High
pressure will build across the region for weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

A warm front extends from Columbus, Ohio to Danville, Virginia.
Clusters of thunderstorms along this front were moving east-southeast.
The long lived thunderstorm cluster of storms that moved
southeast out of Ohio this morning, crossed West Virginia this
afternoon and will now move across southwestern Virginia along the
warm front this evening. The main threat is frequent lightning,
but can't rule out a damaging wind gust per water-loading from
cell mergers and potential for gust front interactions. Other
storms which developed over the NC mountains during the afternoon
will also move east across the NC piedmont. Again, main potential
will be for frequent lightning, but can't rule out isolated strong
wind gusts per cell mergers and gust front interactions.

All activity is expected to wane after loss of daytime heating
with gradual demise of shower/storm coverage between 9PM and
midnight. Maintained chance pops mainly western CWA after midnight to
account for any late night activity which may move downstream from
the Ohio Valley associated with storm clusters farther upstream
along the warm front.

On Thursday there remains a fair bit of uncertainty as to whether
we will see any shower activity during the day with model
consensus on higher pops later in the day and more so for Thursday
evening. Warm front will be just north of the forecast area
Thursday which means we will be in the warm sector, temperatures
soaring into the lower to mid 90s across the foothills and
piedmont per development of westerly downslope compressional flow
on the east side of the Appalachians.

The upper low over the southern Great Lakes Thursday morning is
forecast to track southeast and into WV by Thursday evening. This
is problematic since this feature will arrive during peak
heating with likelihood of a significant Mesoscale Convective
System (MCS) to evolve over the eastern Ohio valley and move
southeast through WV and into VA. Main concern will be damaging
winds. In addition, models also suggest strong directional shear
to be in place along warm front which will be somewhere along the
I-64 corridor in VA...0-3km SR Helicities near 300. So in addition
to damaging straight line winds there will also be the risk for
tornadoes.

Models indicate arrival of the MCS will not occur until late in
the afternoon...developing over Eastern Ohio early in the
afternoon...then crossing WV and into VA during the 5PM-9PM time
frame...exiting the CWA by midnight. After midnight...uncertainty
arises as to how long precipitation will linger. Synoptic models
continue to advertise strong forcing over the forecast area as the
upper low passes overhead. Loss of instability however, means this
activity may continue as showers, but the threat of thunder should
wane.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The vigorous upper level low will be overhead early Friday then
move southeast and off the North Carolina Coast Friday night.
Lingering showers can be expected Friday...possibly a thunderstorm
west of I-77 where enough sun may allow for some weak instability.
Once the low clears the forecast area later in the day the trend
will be for clearing from north to south with dry air returning
for Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north and west.

Temperatures will cool notably Friday into Saturday in the wake of
the departing weather system...northeasterly winds introducing a
less humid airmass for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Deep layered ridge of high pressure is forecast from the southern
Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic with nearly zonal flow along the
U.S./Canadian border. A closed low is forecast over the western
Atlantic but far enough east to minimize sensible weather threats
along the East coast, and certainly not a player for our forecast
area.  As such, expect a multi-day dry spell, under clear skies and
light winds. Next threat for showers will be mid week as short wave
tracks along Canadian border into Great Lakes, dragging a front into
the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Near normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday then above
normal Tuesday ahead of the approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the mountains
this afternoon. Bluefield will be the early target, then
Blacksburg and Roanoke through the rest of the afternoon.
Currently watching a more organized line of convection moving
into WV at 1 PM. This line has its eyes on Lewisburg around 4 PM but
may weaken as light rain this morning has lowered instabilities
over the Greenbrier Valley. However, a few hours of full sunshine
could increase instabilities and this line may link up with
scattered mountain convection to produce some storm storms this
evening. We reduce the duration of TSRA to a few hours this
evening (5p-8p) with showers fading through the night. Areas
seeing rain through this evening will likely have patchy fog
through 9AM Thursday.

High confidence in cigs through the TAF valid period.
High confidence in vsbys through 06Z.
High confidence in wind direction ans speed through the TAF valid
period.
Medium confidence in TSRA potential and timing.

Extended discussion...

An area of low pressure aloft will track into the region from the
north late Thursday into Friday. A line of convection appears
likely with this feature, but the exact placement and timing of
remains somewhat unresolved. Best indication at this point is
across northern/eastern VA Thursday afternoon, then into southern
VA/northern NC Thursday evening/Thursday night. Sub-VFR conditions
may linger into Friday with stratiform precipiation behind the
upper low. By Saturday, conditions should return to VFR with good
flying conditions expected to continue into Sunday as high
pressure builds south behind the departing low.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
427 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-162030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
427 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

CLUSTERS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DRIFTING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
521 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ011-014-018-WVZ044-152215-
CRAIG-MONTGOMERY-GILES-MONROE-
521 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN GILES...CITY OF RADFORD...MONTGOMERY AND
EASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 521 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PICKAWAY TO EGGLESTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSBURG...
CHRISTIANSBURG...
RADFORD...
SHAWSVILLE...
AND PILOT.

THIS INCLUDES VIRGINIA TECH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3769 8038 3769 8029 3762 8020 3736 8022
      3733 8026 3723 8019 3711 8018 3702 8035
      3698 8049 3701 8052 3699 8055 3706 8055
      3712 8060 3714 8053 3718 8057 3720 8051
      3718 8059 3728 8063 3769 8044 3771 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 295DEG 24KT 3765 8053 3730 8060

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ012-013-016-017-152215-
WYTHE-FLOYD-CARROLL-PULASKI-
526 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...FLOYD...EAST CENTRAL WYTHE AND NORTHEASTERN
CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ALLISONIA...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSVILLE...
FLOYD...
ALLISONIA...
PATTERSON...
AND INDIAN VALLEY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3665 8061 3684 8087 3692 8088 3704 8072
      3707 8055 3699 8055 3701 8052 3699 8049
      3702 8045 3701 8045 3702 8035 3708 8028
      3712 8012 3703 8010 3695 8014 3680 8039
      3675 8040 3675 8045 3670 8046 3664 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 283DEG 25KT 3694 8067

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
556 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SHAWSVILLE        37.17N 80.24W
06/15/2016                   MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS ONE TREE DOWN ALONG ROUTE 460 IN
            SHAWSVILLE VIRGINIA BACKING UP TRAFFIC.

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
606 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ016-017-032-152300-
FLOYD-CARROLL-PATRICK-
606 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PATRICK...CENTRAL FLOYD AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 605 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FLOYD THROUGH WILLIS TO NEAR HILLSVILLE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSVILLE...
STUART...
FLOYD...
WOOLWINE...
AND CANA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3656 8074 3676 8086 3676 8049 3684 8039
      3701 8026 3695 8018 3690 8020 3687 8023
      3685 8010 3685 8008 3679 8004 3678 8010
      3672 8009 3670 8008 3654 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 323DEG 16KT 3694 8035 3679 8052 3680 8080

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
612 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ014-017-033-152245-
MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-FRANKLIN-
612 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN FLOYD AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 612 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER CROCKETT
SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COPPER HILL...
CHECK...
CROCKETT SPRINGS...
CALLAWAY...
AND TERRYS FORK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3706 8035 3715 8030 3716 8018 3711 8018
      3711 8017 3712 8012 3716 8009 3716 8008
      3717 8007 3718 8003 3717 8001 3699 8004
      3692 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 302DEG 21KT 3709 8025

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ022-023-033-034-044-045-152330-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-CAMPBELL-BEDFORD-PITTSYLVANIA-FRANKLIN-
629 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...EASTERN ROANOKE...NORTHERN FRANKLIN...
WEST CENTRAL CAMPBELL...EASTERN CITY OF ROANOKE...SOUTHERN BOTETOURT
AND BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 629 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ORISKANY TO VINTON TO BENT MOUNTAIN...AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
VINTON...
BEDFORD...
ROCKY MOUNT...
AND TROUTVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3719 7929 3695 7955 3701 8011 3702 8011
      3703 8010 3703 8011 3705 8011 3706 8012
      3707 8011 3709 8011 3728 7995 3746 7996
      3749 7956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 278DEG 29KT 3757 8001 3729 7991 3713 8013

JJM