Hail and Damaging Winds in Illinois, June 15, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1051 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Frontal boundary stretching from weak low pressure over eastern
Iowa through our far north and northeast counties continues to
slowly edge north this evening. This boundary may have helped
spawn a brief tornado near Bradford and over east central Illinois
near Villa Grove late this afternoon through early this evening.
Actual cool front was analyzed over east central Iowa and should
track across our area Wednesday morning, accompanied by scattered
showers and storms. Precipitable water values of around 2 inches
so any persistent storm(s) have the potential of producing 2 to
3 inches of rain in a short period of time. Have made some
adjustments to the precip wording overnight and have tweaked the
hourly temps/dew points. We should have the update out by 900 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Ongoing convection is expected to continue tonight, as a cold front
approaches from the west. The summertime airmass north of a warm
front in south-central IL will gradually lift north the rest of this
afternoon, setting the stage for scattered showers and storms to
continue. The short term models indicate the focus for storms
tonight appear to be mainly in northern Illinois, closer to a mid
level shortwave ahead of the cold front. The cold frontal location
by 12z/7am could be as far east as the Illinois river, although the
wind shift along the front is not very dramatic, despite the surface
pressure pattern depiction of a frontal passage. Will keep likely
PoPs confined to areas north of Rushville to Champaign overnight,
with chance PoPs elsewhere. Severe potential appears low, with
limited shear and weakening instability in general overnight.

Temps will remain mild with lows remaining in the lower 70s and
dewpoints in the low 70s as well. Patchy fog can not be ruled out in
areas that receive rain today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Forecast remains a bit problematic in the short term as the models
have issue with convection in the warm sector and drying air moving
into the region more quickly with each run.  As a result, the threat
for showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow is being truncated.  The
western portions of ILX will be drying before noon more than likely
tomorrow and convection reconcentrating in the extreme east late.
With the quicker progression, the extent of the threat of severe
weather has also shifted, but not entirely eliminated.

A wave of energy moving out of the western trof over the Northern
Plains is progressing slowly as an open wave over the mid-CONUS
ridge this afternoon.  This storm systems surface low is starting to
take better shape as a warm front continues to define itself with
afternoon convection in Central Illinois.  Cold front is well to the
west and the overnight convection lining up as a prefrontal trof
will hold over into tomorrow, specifically in the east. There is a
chance for refiring of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon in
the extreme east but it will be dependent on whether or not the
atmosphere can get reenergized with the heat of the day...and the
eastern progression of the boundaries.

Somewhat cooler temps on the way for Friday with the slightly cooler
air behind this system but are still in the 80s...and short lived.
The forecast heats back up for the weekend...with little in the way
of rain expected until the end of the weekend and into the first of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Main concern continues to be coverage of convection and the affect
on cigs and vsbys overnight. In addition, with the light wind
regime and abundant low level moisture, fog/hz may be an issue
by dawn Wednesday just before a weak cool front moves through the
forecast area. Widely scattered convection continues with the
better coverage being to our north this evening. However, as a
cold front approaches the area, coverage may increase overnight
but confidence on that is low as we thought there would be more
convection around the area than there currently is. Will watch
the cluster of storms to the northwest this evening to see if
there is any shift southeast, otherwise, will continue to handle
the majority of our TAF sites with VCTS at this point. Surface
winds tonight will be mainly out of the southeast and south at
8 to 13 kts, and then southwest to west at 10 to 15 kts on
Wednesday as the front shifts off to our east by afternoon.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
406 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

ILZ027>029-036-037-040>042-047>051-151100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-
406 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND
100.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ030-031-038-043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-
MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
406 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THE
GREATER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND
100.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
731 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TORNADO          3 WSW BRADFORD          41.16N 89.71W
06/14/2016                   STARK              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN FIELD. NO DAMAGE.

&&

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