Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 13 to 14, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Surface trough at 19Z extended from northwest of Gage, OK southwest
to Tucumcari, NM with a broad Cu field to its southeast. The moist
axis is poised north-to-south in the Rolling Plains where dewpoints
continue to rise each hour, however farther west the earlier upper
50 Tds have since mixed out by 4-8 degrees. This deeper mixing is
occurring within a low-level thermal ridge from Andrews northeast
Palo Duro Canyon. AMDAR sounding earlier from LBB sampled a rather
stout cap from 760-720mb which may not budge anytime soon given
slightly warmer temps upstream in southeast NM. Gradual deepening of
the mixing layer could compromise this cap in a few spots by late
afternoon, but confidence is much higher in storms developing over
the central and eastern TX Panhandle ahead of a subtle impulse noted
on water vapor imagery. As this impulse reaches the intersection of
the low level moist and thermal axes near AMA, storms should easily
develop and spread slowly south-southeast into our northeastern
counties. Decent 0-6km bulk shear of 30 knots, straight line
hodographs and MLCAPEs of 1500 J/kg should allow for some occasional
supercell modes before outflows consolidate and breed more
multicellular activity through the evening. POPs late this afternoon
continue to favor our far northeast counties until expanding through
the Rolling Plains tonight. With such weak forcing, some of the high
resolution CAMs are showing obvious signs of struggling, although
the 12Z TTU-WRF has what looks to be the most realistic scenario for
storm coverage and evolution through this evening.

Cold front currently racing south through southwest KS should reach
our northern zones near midnight before exiting the southwest South
Plains before daybreak. How well additional storm development occurs
along and behind this front is very unclear. A 40 knot southwest LLJ
may help focus another conglomerate of storms after midnight mainly
off the Caprock as favored by the 18z WPC QPF. Thereafter, stable
surface ridging and unseasonably cool air will drain throughout the
region from NE-SW. Moisture will still reside along the elevated
front, so this weak ascent through saturation could keep showers and
some thunder through mid-morning Saturday before this layer dries
out too much leaving just a shallow stratus layer below. High temps
were cooled off an additional 1-3 degrees as stratus and upslope
winds team together and make for a crisp and cool May day.

.LONG TERM...
Wow, mixed case with punctuation!  Saturday evening will bring with
it a flattening ridge to our west as next storm system tracks
southeastward from the Pacific Northwest.  This system looks to be
quite slow to eject across the Southern Plains with good agreement
amongst the global models showing overhead passage of the trough
axis next Thursday evening.

Back door cold front should largely be through the area by Saturday
evening with best isentropic ascent to the west and south of the
forecast area initially but conditions should be increasingly
favorable during the overnight hours and strong ascent overspreads
the region.  In fact, favorable ascent looks to persist on into
Monday morning.  As southwesterly flow aloft returns, the dryline
will sweep eastward on Monday likely shunting all convection east of
the area. The next cold front is anticipated on Wednesday. Once
again, the GFS is depicting convection along a fast moving cold
front. This is a scenario that is rarely seen here in West Texas.
however, what is possible is potential for postfrontal isentropic
precipitation. Given the NWP wet bias as of late, there is some
skepticism to say the least.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

93/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TXZ021>044-141645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD
EVOLVE INTO A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. WIND GUSTS AROUND 65
MPH AND HAILSTONES TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             19 NE CHILDRESS         34.62N 100.01W
05/13/2016  M1.75 INCH       CHILDRESS          TX   STORM CHASER

            SPOTTER WAS 6 MILES SOUTH OF DODSON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600125

SCOBB