Strong westerly steering flow ahead of an approaching cold front brought a dominant west coast sea breeze regime with focused the afternoon sea breeze merger along the Interstate 95 corridor in the afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Strong westerly steering flow ahead of an approaching cold front brought a dominant west coast sea breeze regime with focused the afternoon sea breeze merger along the Interstate 95 corridor in the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 13, 2:56 PM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 356 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 ...Strong thunderstorms possible through early evening across Northeast and North Central Florida... .NEAR TERM (Through Saturday)... Remainder of the afternoon/eve...Storms firing up over northeast and north central Florida. As a short wave and associated cold front moves into Se Ga late this afternoon...High-Res model (HRRR) still persistent on developing more storms along both seabreeze fronts and moving activity towards the Se. Storms may be especially strong as the seabreezes collide along the Ne FL coast during the late afternoon into the early eve. Some storms may be strong and produce strong and gusty winds in addition to locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Tonight-Saturday...The cold front will continue to move southeast and be southeast of the area after midnight. Scattered storms across Ne Fl will gradually end during the eve. Some storms may initially linger along the east coast and be locally strong. A drier airmass will move into the region behind the front late tonight into Saturday. Low temps later tonight cool to near seasonal levels and then warm to slightly above normal Sat. .SHORT TERM (Saturday night through Sunday night)... Longwave troughing over the Great Lakes and New England will dig southward on Saturday night and early Sunday, and then will lift northeastward by Sunday evening. This digging trough will send a reinforcing dry cold front quickly southward through our area on Saturday evening, shifting our low level winds to a northwest to northerly direction and promoting cold air advection as surface ridging builds into the Tennessee Valley. Lows will fall into the upper 50s inland to the low/mid 60s at the beaches. The surface front will stall over north central FL early on Sunday, with onshore winds developing during the afternoon hours at coastal locations as our local pressure gradient loosens. This weather pattern will keep coastal highs near 80, with inland highs ranging from the lower 80s in southeast GA to the upper 80s in north central FL. High pressure will continue to build eastward over the Appalachians on Sunday night, promoting radiational cooling during the evening hours before high clouds begin to encroach from the west after midnight. Lows will range from the low to mid 50s over inland southeast GA to the low/mid 60s at the coast and across north central FL. .LONG TERM (Monday though Friday)... Troughing will lift away from the mid-Atlantic coast and New England, leaving broad west-southwest flow aloft in place over our region for much of next week. The stalled front over north central FL on Sunday night will lift northward through our region on Monday, with isolated afternoon convection possible along inland- moving sea breezes. Highs will rebound into the mid/upper 80s inland, with onshore winds keeping coastal highs in the lower 80s. Surface ridging will shift well offshore of the Carolinas by Monday night and Tuesday, with low level winds becoming southerly and bringing an increasingly humid air mass into our region. Lows Monday And Tuesday nights will only fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some weak shortwave energy embedded within the W/SW flow aloft may enhance diurnal convection on Tuesday afternoon, with scattered coverage expected along mesoscale boundaries. Highs will climb to near 90 inland, with low to mid 80s at the beaches. Troughing will once again dig southward along the U.S. eastern seaboard towards midweek, sending a frontal boundary into the southeastern U.S. This front will stall just to the north of our region, with deep moisture and daily episodes of shortwave energy moving northeastward through our region enhancing mainly diurnal convection. Scattered activity is expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with numerous coverage expected for Thursday and Friday. Activity later this week may linger well into the evening hours as the surface front sinks toward our region. Highs Wed will climb to near 90 inland and the mid 80s at the coast, with increasing rain chances on Thursday and Friday keeping highs in the 80s. Lows will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... Scattered storms still expected later this afternoon and into the early eve...mainly across Ne Fl...as the cold front approaches. High-Res models continue to indicate bulk of storms will be after 20Z and possibly through 01Z near the coast which will coincide with the approach of the front and the seabreeze fronts merging. Have therefore upgraded previous PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups for TS and IFR. For the SSI TAF have continued with VCTS with no TEMPO group as it appears most storms will be south of there. After the front pushes through this eve... most of the storms will be Se of the area and prevailing VFR is expected after around 00-01Z. && .MARINE... Scattered to numerous storms will move east across the waters this afternoon and early evening in advance of a cold front. A few of these storms could produce strong gusty winds with locally higher seas. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will generally average less than 15 knots. Winds will become northwest early Saturday morning but should continue to remain less than 15 knots. Another front will pass across the waters late Saturday night with winds veering to the north and briefly increasing to around 15 knots. Onshore winds will prevail from Sunday through early next week with nocturnal surges expected in the evenings early next week. RIP CURRENTS: Low risk through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... A much drier air mass will filter into our region on Saturday. Northwesterly surface winds are expected to remain near 10 mph during the afternoon hours, with relative humidity values plunging to near 25 percent for both inland and coastal locations. Fuel moisture values should remain just above critical thresholds, and thus Red Flag conditions are not expected. Westerly transport winds around 15 mph, elevated mixing heights and surface temperatures around 90 degrees with create high dispersion values on Saturday afternoon area-wide. A dry air mass will linger at inland locations on Sunday afternoon, but minimum values should remain just above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 58 87 56 81 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 65 85 63 78 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 62 89 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 SGJ 68 86 64 81 / 40 0 0 0 GNV 63 90 58 88 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 65 90 59 89 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && Peterson/Nelson/Combs
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 433 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-140845- COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION- BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION- COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING- WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN- ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 433 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA... SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT 20 TO 30 MPH AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. JDS
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:15 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning, 1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter near the World Golf Village reported 6-8 inch tree limbs blown down and a portion of a wood fence damaged. Wind gusts were estimated between 50-60 mph. Cost of damage was estimated.
Lightning struck 3 cars and set one on fire in downtown St. Augustine. Time of damage was based on the National Lightning Detection Network Data. Cost of damage was estimated.
Trees were blown down near 55th Blvd near Gainesville. The time of damage was based on radar data.
Trees and power lines were blown down along Southwest 16th Street and a fence was damaged near Southeast 1st Street. The time of damage was based on radar data.
A 3 acre wildfire developed in Middleburg along Laurel Street. The fire was named the Lilac fire. There were no homes threatened nor road closures reported.
Numerous reports of trees and power lines occurred in Hawthorne. The time of damage was estimated by radar.
A tree was blown down along Lake Susan Road. The time of damage was based on radar.
Power lines were blown down in St. Augustine. Time of damage was based on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 629252, 629254, 629253, 629257, 629259, 629258, 629255, 629256.