A line of thunderstorms dumped heavy rain near Buffalo Gap, and this led to flash flooding along Elm Creek.
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The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms dumped heavy rain near Buffalo Gap, and this led to flash flooding along Elm Creek.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 20, 5:26 AM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 626 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Pockets of convection continued across much of West Central Texas, effecting several of the terminals to start off the forecast. Will use latest radar trends as a starting point for the next few hours. Convection timing and location become much more uncertain for the afternoon, and will continue the mention of VCTS for these periods. A cold front near the I-20 corridor at sunrise will drift south and become more diffuse through the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) A large area of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms continues across the southeastern portions of the area early this morning, mainly southeast of a Brownwood to Eden to Ozona line. Radar estimates have been showing 1/2 to 1 inch per hour, but seeing lesser rates coming in from the LCRA rainfall gages in the area, so we may be overestimating just a tad. Convection has showed little signs of weakening, and with it likely aided by at least 1 MCV, it should continue to sunrise. Meanwhile to the north, more storms are forming along and north of a cold front approaching the northern Big Country. This front should sag into the area this morning, likely reaching to near the I-20 corridor by around noon. Front will begin to stall at that point, although suspect that convective outflows will continue to push the front south, although only very slowly. Between the convection ongoing to the south and the convection to the north with the front, have gone ahead and increased rain chances even a little more for much of the area. Front sags into the southern and eastern portions of the area this evening, with the scattered showers and storms to continue. Best chances will be along and east of a Brownwood to Brady to Sonora line. Not much to talk about with temperatures, with afternoon cloud cover keeping highs in the 80s. LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) The wet and cool pattern continues into Sunday as the remnant cold front lingers across the area...most likely in the southeast counties from near Brownwood to Junction areas. Will continue with higher precip chances for the southeast Sunday into Sunday night near the boundary. Although not issuing a Flash Flood watch at this point, will monitor for the possibility as we head into Sunday. These areas have not received much rain over the last couple days, but if they do get more rain today, they may be primed for the possibility of flooding by Sunday evening. Will continue to keep an eye on rainfall amounts and adjust as needed. Precip chances decrease for Monday into early Wednesday, but still can not rule out a few showers as broad upper trough develops to the west and abundant moisture remains over the area. Could see diurnally driven showers each day through the early part of the work week. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with cloud cover lingering, but will see a slight warmup into the 90s by Tuesday. Will keep a chance of rain and a few thunderstorms through the rest of the week mainly across the northwest half of the area as southwest flow aloft brings a series of weak disturbances over west Texas as the upper trough approaches. Looks like the second half of August will continue on the cool side after the first half of the month's 100 plus degree temperatures. 08 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 84 66 85 68 / 70 40 40 40 San Angelo 84 67 85 68 / 60 40 40 40 Junction 83 69 83 68 / 80 70 60 50 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && 07
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 348 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-210900- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 348 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS CITY STREETS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS WELL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN RETURN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN A THREAT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:02 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported three feet of water flowing over County Road 272 along Elm Creek. Also, 3.45 inches of rain was reported.
A trained spotter reported Elm Creek was running over FM 89 about 11 miles west southwest of Buffalo Gap. Also, 3.42 inches of rain was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 655801, 655806.