Tornado and Hail in Texas, April 19, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The large upper low that has been affecting weather across the
nation's midsection since the early part of the weekend has
finally started to progress northeastward, and will reach the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by Thursday. Prior to that, this
afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
across the area, with some strong (possibly severe) thunderstorms
possible, particularly across the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin along a diffuse dryline. Clearing across the western half of
the forecast area has allowed temperatures to warm into the 70s,
and a cumulus field has developed with an isolated thunderstorm in
central Pecos county. The extent of coverage of convection this
afternoon and evening hinges on the amount of further
destabilization that can occur, given clearing has been slow
across the eastern half of the forecast area. While low level
shear is fairly weak, deep layer shear is around 40-50kts, and
given lapse rates of around 7C/km, stronger storms will be capable
of producing hail and gusty wind. Storms that develop this
afternoon will move east tonight, with another cloudy night
expected with lows a bit above normal in the mid 40s to mid 60s.

As the trough axis finally begins to move east of the region on
Wednesday, temperatures will warm up to near and slightly above
normal, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible across the
far eastern CWA where moisture will be greater. Wednesday night,
a shortwave rounding the back side of the departing low is progged
to generate showers and thunderstorms across the Texas
Panhandle, with the trough and associated convective outflow
resulting in precipitation chances late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning across the central and eastern Permian Basin.
Focus for convection Thursday afternoon then looks to shift to the
Stockton Plateau/Lower Trans Pecos along and ahead of a front,
which will also serve to keep temperatures a bit below normal
across the northern half of the forecast area.

Temperatures will slowly rebound back to normal on Friday as
ridging develops over the region. Friday night into Saturday, a
shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will yield a
return of precipitation chances, mainly along and south of the
Pecos River. Sunday onward, the forecast looks to be warm and
dry, as above normal temperatures return and the dryline shifts
east, confining precipitation chances to Central Texas and points
east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  80  59  73 /  40  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       51  85  52  79 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  87  65  86 /  40  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  57  86  58  80 /  30  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 51  80  51  74 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  80  50  75 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          41  81  42  78 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  83  59  77 /  40  10  10  20
Odessa                         57  83  59  77 /  40  10  10  20
Wink                           56  88  57  81 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-201930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
217 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 /117 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A TATUM...TO PECOS...TO LAJITAS LINE.  SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ075-192200-
PECOS TX-
426 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 425 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELDING...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF FORT STOCKTON
ALONG HIGHWAY 385... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIERRA MADERA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 10291 3060 10301 3074 10290 3053 10243
      3039 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 240DEG 49KT 3059 10285

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