A weak frontal boundary was draped across the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms developed over central and northeast Missouri.
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The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
A weak frontal boundary was draped across the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms developed over central and northeast Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 19, 2:40 PM CST, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 340 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016 Large upper level low spinning over northeast Colorado will begin to move slowly eastward tonight and pick up speed on Wednesday. Several lobes of vorticity will rotate around the low tonight and Wednesday which will continue to keep the threat for precip over the region. I can't say that there will be any time through 00Z Thursday that is certain to be dry, but at least through mid morning the showers will be more scattered in nature than wide-spread. The showers currently on the scope should dissipate slowly this evening with a few likely popping up at times across the CWFA through the night. Expect increasing Increasing coverage during the late morning and afternoon on Wednesday as 850mb winds veer to the southwest and one of the more prominent vort-lobes rotates through Missouri into Illinois. This combined with the 850mb moisture convergence and the associated surface trof will likely touch off more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be highly dependent on what areas get precipitation. I stuck pretty close to ensemble MOS guidance for lows tonight and highs Wednesday. Carney .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016 A longwave upper-level RIDGE will dominate the central CONUS thru the upcoming weekend. The wx won't be typical for a longwave RIDGE, however, because of the presence of a cutoff LOW, that by the time Wednesday night rolls around, will be in the process of being re-absorbed back into the main flow and will be on the move. The models still track the main system center to our north on late Wednesday night and Thursday, leaving only the northern CWA across northern MO and central IL with any measure of upper support for pcpn. There will also be a surface cold front slowly dropping thru Thursday that will maintain lift and focus. So, rain chances will continue easily thru Thursday. The more significant drying of the column and subsequent reduction in rain chances should arrive with passage of the TROF axis late Thursday, but even with this, there is some model discrepancy on timing, with the GEM delaying this until early Friday morning, but the mode amongst the solutions favors late Thursday afternoon or early evening. Temps will temporarily dip back to near normal for late week between the clouds, rain, and brief intrusion of a cooler airmass behind the Thursday front. The departure of the leftover cutoff LOW system which should be by Friday will mean a more typical result for a longwave upper RIDGE-- and back to dry and warm wx for the weekend for most areas once the southerly winds kick back in on Saturday. Daytime max temps should reach near 80F again. The GFS has since backed off its adverisement of a strong upper level system for next Monday, but both the EC and GFS now at least show a favorable setup for what should be a frontal boundary dropping south into our region for late Monday into Tuesday with a supportive flow aloft from the W-NW. So despite losing what would have been good upper support, the signal for rain chances is no less good late Monday and Tuesday than it was 24hrs ago, and largely maintained the at or slightly above average climo PoPs during this period. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016 A large upper level storm system centered over Colorado is sending waves of smaller disturbances into the Mississippi Valley. Most of the lower ceilings have risen at this time, and I expect VFR ceilings and visibilities to prevail this afternoon and evening. However...isolated to widely scattered showers may temporarily lower the flight category to MVFR or even IFR in the heavier rain. Coverage is uncertain, but best estimate at this time is 20-30 percent. Showers should dissipate slowly this evening after we lose daytime heating. Think lower ceilings will develop again Wednesday morning ahead of the surface trof of low pressure which will move into the area toward the end of the period. Additionally, more showers and probably thunderstorms as well are expected to develop during the mid to late morning. IFR ceilings are possible...but did not want to go that low until confidence improves so have MVFR in all the terminal forecasts for Wednesday morning. Specifics for KSTL: Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail at Lambert this afternoon into the overnight period as well. Widely scattered showers are developing over eastern Missouri. Looks like there are a couple of stronger ones with some lighting in them now too. Unfortunately there really aren't any easily definable features to try to time any precipitation at Lambert...something could develop over the terminal with little or no warning. Fortunately the majority of the showers should be brief and not particularly heavy. The most likely impact would be a brief period of 3-5SM visibility. Showers should dissipate slowly after sunset. MVFR looks likely tomorrow morning ahead of a surface trof with scattered showers developing after 12Z. Showers and thunderstorms are likely after 17Z. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 345 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 345 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. TES
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:19 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Land-spout moved west to east along a boundary. Caused minor damage to an outbuilding on the east side of County Road 489.
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