Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 11, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK POP UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED A BIT OVER THE
LAST HOUR BUT STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THINK
THAT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UP A LITTLE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM HAIL ALTHOUGH A
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z
AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z.

78.JG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.

CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    84  54  70  54  70 /  40  10   5  30  10
WACO                86  52  71  53  70 /  20   5  10  50  30
PARIS               77  54  68  49  67 /  50  20   5  20  10
DENTON              83  50  68  50  69 /  40  10   5  20  10
MCKINNEY            81  53  69  51  69 /  50  10   5  20  10
DALLAS              85  56  70  54  70 /  40  10   5  30  10
TERRELL             81  54  69  52  69 /  40  10   5  30  10
CORSICANA           84  55  69  54  69 /  40  10  10  40  30
TEMPLE              86  55  72  55  69 /  10   5  10  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       85  49  68  51  71 /  20  10  10  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
441 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-120945-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
441 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35E THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.