Hail in Tennessee, May 10, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

ACCORDING TO THE PEOPLE WHO TELL ME WHAT TO DO...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION I WRITE IN ALL CAPS. ONE SMALL STEP
FOR METEOROLOGY...BUT A GIANT LEAP FOR SOCIAL MEDIA.

A WEAK BUT BROAD RIDGE IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MIDDAY IT WAS CENTERED OVER FAR EAST OKLAHOMA AND
SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE HAS PROVEN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY INCLUDING LI'S OF
-8C AND OVER 3,000 J/KG OF CAPE. FARTHER EAST WHERE THE RIDGE IS
LESS DOMINATE...DEEPER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE JUST LIKE YESTERDAY. TIME IS QUICKLY RUNNING OUT
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

TOMORROW LOOKS HOT...AT LEAST FOR EARLY/MID MAY. IF MEMPHIS
REACHES 87 DEGREES IT WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE IN 2016 AND
WARMEST DAY SINCE MID OCTOBER. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE...THEY
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI AND
KENTUCKY STATE LINES.

TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. WE MAY SEE A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING.

30/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF
LOW CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT CHANCES OF A CEILING ARE
LOW. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF KMKL
SO REMOVED VCTS THERE. SOUTH WINDS 6-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO 10-12 WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
506 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-120015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
506 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH
SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THIS EVENING...AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

SJM