A warm front was located across southern Mississippi on April 29, 2016. The combination of moisture advection from the south and an upper level disturbance produced thunderstorms over portions of southwest Tennessee.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A warm front was located across southern Mississippi on April 29, 2016. The combination of moisture advection from the south and an upper level disturbance produced thunderstorms over portions of southwest Tennessee. Heavy rainfall from these thunderstorms caused some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 29, 10:01 AM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 .UPDATE... MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE CONVECTION. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY THIS EVENING. KRM && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/ EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. THE RADAR IS QUIET FOR NOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE QUICKLY TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHIFTING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. A DEEP TROUGH IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TEXAS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MULTIPLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR MORE RESULTING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH IN A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN BOTH THEIR DAY 1 AND DAY 2 OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS MAKES ME SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT EXAGGERATED. THE GFS HAS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY NOON TODAY. THE 00Z NAM KEPT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THE 06Z RUN SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...EVEN BRINGING ELEVATED VALUES SIMILAR TO THE GFS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH LIGHT WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING...BUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THERMODYNAMICS. LATER THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH. WE SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNSET...BUT AGAIN...LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS THIS MAY BE EXAGGERATED. A 45-50KT LLJ WILL ADD ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW IS SHOULD BE ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND LIKELY THE GREATEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BY SUNDAY...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW. THINGS LOOK MORE CLEAR CUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER MONDAY. MORNING LOWS MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF US WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED. 30 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING. SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH TSRA TEMPO TIMED AT 29/16Z FOR KJBR AND SHORTLY AFTER FOR KMEM AND KMKL. REDUCED VSBY TO MVFR CAT WITH TSRA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP LEFT AT LEAST VCTS IN THROUGH END OF PERIOD FOR THIS REASON WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. ZDM && .AVIATION... && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 422 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301130- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 422 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING MORE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY.DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
ARZ027-035-036-048-049-058-291615-
PHILLIPS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-LEE AR-POINSETT AR-
1033 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR...
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
AT 1033 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEEDEVILLE
TO NEAR CRUMROD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN PHILLIPS...ST. FRANCIS...NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN...CROSS...
LEE AND POINSETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
LAT...LON 3500 9115 3502 9104 3571 9104 3568 9049
3473 9057 3464 9050 3463 9052 3470 9055
3443 9057 3431 9066 3437 9068 3437 9076
3421 9085 3424 9094 3414 9082 3414 9083
3412 9112 3434 9100 3473 9105 3491 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 243DEG 29KT 3542 9115 3420 9106SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1211 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 MSZ001-002-007-008-011>013-TNZ088-089-291800- TUNICA MS-TATE MS-LAFAYETTE MS-PANOLA MS-QUITMAN MS-MARSHALL MS- DESOTO MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN- 1211 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR... EASTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE... AT 1210 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROBINSONVILLE TO CURTIS STATION...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. PEOPLE IN EASTERN TUNICA...TATE...NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...PANOLA... NORTHEASTERN QUITMAN...MARSHALL...DESOTO...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. LAT...LON 3518 8950 3444 8936 3426 9024 3480 9036 TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 248DEG 49KT 3480 9028 3433 9018
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
MSZ010>012-020-291830-
TALLAHATCHIE MS-PANOLA MS-COAHOMA MS-QUITMAN MS-
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR...
TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
AT 1241 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DREW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN TALLAHATCHIE...SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA...SOUTHEASTERN COAHOMA
AND SOUTHERN QUITMAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
LAT...LON 3381 9045 3398 9045 3399 9064 3425 9020
3390 8994 3381 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 237DEG 31KT 3385 9042The Memphis radar (KNQA), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:49 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The intersection of Wells Station Road and Russwood had water from curb to curb and was six to eight inches deep. Daytona Road and Truman Avenue were also flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, April 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 632684.