Hail and Damaging Wind in South Dakota, September 4, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
210 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Monday Night)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Mean western conus trough and associated impulses will continue
to affect the region in the period. A potent front side impulse is
in the process of advecting toward the region this afternoon with
flow increasing in the mid levels ahead of this feature.
Destabilization will continue this afternoon and evening with
convection developing and becoming more numerous through evening.
Strong flow will support deep layer shear in excess of 50 knots
with mean ll cape of 1-2.5 KJ/Kg, highest over scentral
SD...supporting a good chance of severe storms over the se half.
Initial convection over the far sw will likely be single
cell/supercells. Convection will quickly organize into a linear
connective system (given wind profiles aloft) with large hail and
damaging winds possible as it progresses across the se third.
Outside of this area, mainly sct showers and few isold ts will be
possible. Convection chances will continue through the night as
the main jet streak and upper trough lifts over the region. Patchy
fog will also be possible tonight, esp across the western third.
Cyclonic flow will remain over the region through Monday, with
additional diurnal shra/ts possible, best chance across the far nw
closest to the best lsa. Cooler conds expected nw 2/3 with highs
slightly below seasonal norms most areas, coolest over far nw
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Slow moving upper trof to the west of the region will finally
start moving east across the Rockies and plains Tuesday and
Wednesday. Good chances for showers and a few storms will
continue, with the best chances looking to be Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. As trof moves east of the area late in the
week, drier zonal flow aloft will develop. Will still keep low
chances for showers in some areas late Thursday through Friday.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal averages
through the period, with highs mostly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 207 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

VFR conditions generally expected across southern and central SD
through late afternoon. Areas of IFR ceilings with light showers
will persist across Northeast WY and far western SD, including
KGCC KSPF KRAP. Scattered thunderstorms will move through much of
the area between mid afternoon and mid evening, with strong to
severe storms with large hail and damaging winds from the Black
Hills eastward. MVFR/IFR cigs will then overspread much of the
forecast area overnight into early Monday.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
650 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

SDZ027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-074-051300-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-
FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-
650 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 /750 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ013-014-024>026-028-029-072-073-051300-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
650 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ001-002-012-WYZ054>058-071-051300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-
WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
650 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE BLACK HILLS OF WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY