Hail in South Carolina, May 31, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of tropical system Bonnie will slowly lift northeast
along the Carolina Coast over the next couple of days. Moisture will
increase ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the northwest
on Friday. The front will stall out over the area over the weekend,
with a stronger cold front moving through the region early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Deep convection has broken out over portions of
the NC mountains, with an appreciable Cu field covering much of
the Piedmont. An area of congested cumulus just north and NE of
Spartanburg has now also produced some heavy showers. Taking the
CWFA as a whole, our various convection allowing models are not
handling the coverage very well, mostly because they have been
overdone with coverage all day. Based on the development so far,
and what happened yesterday under similar circumstances, the
current activity is likely to expand mainly southward. Isolated
cells however are expected over the eastern Piedmont zones and
Savannah River Valley before the end of the day. The storms so far
have produced just heavy rain, and while profiles don't support
a particularly great damaging wind threat, the weak shear implies
storms will remain in pulse mode and an isolated large hail event
or downburst is plausible.

Lapse rates are expected to remain unchanged tonight, with a
similarly weakly forced environment as we experienced Mon night
into early Tue. The low level flow is expected to veer, which could
provide some slight upslope forcing and showers to linger into the
early morning. I have handled this trending PoPs down more slowly
than they would on a typical diurnal curve. Despite the easterly
flow, low stratus looks unlikely (particularly given that it was
overforecast by guidance for today). Min temps will be a few degrees
above climo on account of partial cloudiness from convective debris,
and humid conditions. Overall the pattern will have changed little
by Wed aftn. Another round of diurnal thunderstorms is expected,
mainly forming over the mountains and moving into the foothills,
but with isolated to scattered cells developing over the Piedmont as
well. Weak wind profiles still point to pulse storms and associated
threats. Max temps will be a degree or two above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday: Flat ridging builds over the Southeastern US
through the period. Weak low level easterly flow remains in place
across the area Thursday as the remnants of Bonnie slowly move north
along the NC coast. With warm temps and copious low level moisture
in place, moderate instability will develop once again. Expect
numerous convective coverage to develop across the mountains with
high end scattered coverage elsewhere. Low level flow becomes
southwesterly on Friday as a weak cold front moves into the area
from the NW. Low level moisture remains quite high which keeps
moderate instability across the area. Expect convective coverage to
be similar if not slightly greater than Thursday. Shear remains weak
even with the approach of the frontal system. However, expect a few
severe storms to develop each day given the instability and
convective coverage. Isolated flooding is also possible with slow
moving storms both days. Highs rise from a couple of degrees above
normal on Thursday to around 5 degrees above normal Friday. Lows
will be up to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Saturday with relatively flat upper ridging over the southeast and a
nearly stationary southern stream upper low over Texas. Over the
next 24 to 48 hours, steep upper ridging amplifies over the Western
CONUS and broad upper troffing digs down over the Great Lakes. The
upper trof axis is expected to be east of the fcst area by the end
of the medium range on Tuesday as the upper ridge spreads farther
east.

At the sfc, the long range models are coming into better agreement
wrt the evolution of the sfc pattern. The pattern remains fairly
stagnate and weakly forced on Sat and most of Sun as a stalled cold
front lingers over the region keeping deep lyr moisture and healthy
amounts of instability in place. A stronger cold front approaches
the CWFA on Sunday and is expected to move thru the fcst area
sometime late Sunday into early Monday with drier and cooler air
overspreading the region in the front's wake. As for the sensible
fcst, I kept solid chance to low end likely chances for numerous
showers and ts on Saturday and Sunday. Drying is expected during the
latter half of Monday with dry conditions for Tuesday. Temps will
start out just above climatology and cool on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: There is potential for a TSRA to impact the field this
afternoon and early evening. Some meso model runs depict clustered
storms moving thru the KCLT area, though based on these models'
poor performance so far today, this appears too unlikely to warrant
a mention. A TEMPO may be needed in subsequent amendments, but most
likely all impactful convection will remain west of the field. Low
VFR Cu will persist into early evening, with some stratocu or altocu
seen overnight. Guidance that suggested restrictive stratus would
move overhead this (Tue) morning was incorrect, and under nearly
the same pattern the same guidance is making the same prediction for
Wed. I will maintain VFR fcst. Winds remaining in NE quad and light.

Elsewhere: SCT +SHRA/TSRA are expected to grow in coverage thru
mid-aftn, gradually moving S-SE off the Blue Ridge. TEMPOs are
included accordingly at KAVL/KGSP/KGMU. A chance does exist at
KHKY/KAND though not great enough to warrant a TEMPO. Some showers
will linger into tonight though likely not having much impact. Some
patchy fog is expected to develop over the mtns early Wed AM,
particularly where +RA falls today, and perhaps at KAND. Winds will
be mainly SW at KAVL and NE elsewhere, going light/VRB overnight.

Outlook...Remnant low from former tropical cyclone Bonnie is
expected to move very slowly up the coastal Carolinas over the
next several days, maintaining increased precip and morning
stratus chances at KCLT. Otherwise, patchy fog chances continue
at KAVL each morning, with scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA
increasing in coverage throughout during the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  95%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  97%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
ALL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                35.25N 82.20W
05/31/2016  E0.75 INCH       POLK               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCZ052-312100-
HAYWOOD NC-
433 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD
COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF WAYNESVILLE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-CATALOOCHEE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FINES CREEK AND COVE CREEK.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8287 3564 8287 3564 8286 3557 8281
      3557 8304 3569 8302 3569 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 358DEG 5KT 3564 8295

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             2 SE COLUMBUS           35.23N 82.18W
05/31/2016  E1.00 INCH       POLK               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LOCATION OF THE REPORT ESTIMATED TO ALIGN WITH RADAR
            DATA.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
444 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

SCZ008-312115-
CHEROKEE SC-
444 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CHEROKEE
COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 443 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAFFNEY...BLACKSBURG...DRAYTONVILLE AND CHEROKEE FALLS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8167 3509 8167 3513 8148 3494 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 344DEG 5KT 3504 8157

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCZ056-504-312115-
GREATER BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-
445 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN BURKE
AND WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 445 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HICKORY...OR NEAR ICARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...LONGVIEW...ICARD...HILDEBRAN...CONNELLY SPRINGS...HICKORY
REGIONAL AIRPORT...MOUNTAIN VIEW...RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...RHODHISS AND
VALDESE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 8127 3558 8126 3557 8147 3557 8153
      3556 8157 3573 8160 3577 8141 3576 8140
      3576 8138 3577 8137 3577 8136 3578 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 344DEG 5KT 3569 8147

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

SCZ013-312200-
UNION SC-
511 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF UNION...OR 5 MILES EAST OF WHITMIRE. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLISLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 8155 3446 8155 3446 8156 3448 8155
      3451 8160 3460 8160 3460 8142 3453 8143
      3450 8142 3450 8144 3449 8144 3449 8148
      3445 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 189DEG 4KT 3451 8152

MOORE