A potent cold front pushed into an unseasonably warm and humid air mass, generating widespread showers and thunderstorms. There was a considerable amount of both low level and deep layer shear, and some of the storms produced damaging winds.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A potent cold front pushed into an unseasonably warm and humid air mass, generating widespread showers and thunderstorms. There was a considerable amount of both low level and deep layer shear, and some of the storms produced damaging winds. A line of convection stalled and trained over Centre, Clinton and Lycoming counties during the late evening hours, producing a swath of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall from just north and west of State College northeastward to near Lock Haven, Jersey Shore and just north of Williamsport. There were numerous road closures due to high water in Patton Township, Centre County and several water rescues were reported along Bald Eagle Creek in Milesburg, Centre County, and across northern Lycoming County and western Sullivan County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 20, 3:45 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 445 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will move into Western Pennsylvania later today and this evening. The associated cold front will move slowly across the state tonight and Friday. Windy and much colder weather will move in for the weekend with the first bout of lake effect and upslope rain and snow showers Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 350PM: Update for issuance of Flash Flood Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #499. Previous: Satellite indicates the warm air has mixed down over all but the far NW and NE. High temps are indeed a bit ahead of earlier expectations with a cloudier sky. The meso anal shows inverted trough poking up into NWRN Pa. This connects to a wavy front over SWRN Pa and extends down into at least one wave on the front over sern Ohio. The NW looks to remain the focus for the best rains into the evening today as the leading wave of low pressure ripples up into western Pa by nightfall. As the associated upper trough deepens and moves toward the NERN US, the wavy front will slow down with the best rains concentrating along and behind the front, in almost classic anafront fashion. The models show a strengthening upper jet entrance region which will support strong deep layer frontogenetic forcing moving slowly across the forecast area, mainly tonight through the first half of Friday. We are outlooked for a Slight Risk of severe storms which is not unreasonable given the strong surge of moisture and expected development of several hundred Joules of Cape by mid to late afternoon as the front enters western Pa. Model depicted deep layer shear will be similarly intensifying under the deepening upper trough so the potential for damaging wind gusts will be enhanced in any convection that can manage to organize. The best chance of this would seem to be some sort of narrow cold frontal rain band feature as the front strengthens and moves eastward. The big question will be if the intensifying dynamic forcing can overcome the increasing stability that will be occurring after the sun goes down. The front and area of rain will progress slowly eastward overnight. Have chosen to not hoist a flood watch at this time given the expected progressive nature of any kind of concentrated convection that may form along the front. Can't rule out some smaller scale nuisance flooding as it is the the time of year that fallen leaves can clog storm drains. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... There's good consensus that the wavy front will have cleared at least the western half of the forecast area by mid day to be east of the entire forecast area by nightfall. Showers along the front will transition onto a steady moderate to heavy soaking rain as the front passes. The wind will shift to the NW and become gusty along with steady or falling temperatures after the frontal passage. By late day we should see the rain finally starting to taper off and become more showery. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A major change in the weather pattern is expected to occur early in the period which could yield the first taste of snow over parts of Central Pennsylvania. An anomalous upper level trough will close off and take on a negative tilt, with a deepening coastal surface low tracking from southern New England north and west into eastern Quebec. Strong cold advection on the backside of the low along with 100-150m height falls and dynamic cooling within a pivoting deformation axis could result in a rain/snow transition Friday night into Saturday morning. The 20/12Z operational EC/GFS/NAM/CMC generate a coating to 1 inch of snow over parts of the Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands. Confidence in accumulation is still low but odds would seem to be increasing. For now will continue to mention rain/snow in the wx grids with no accums. A seasonably cold and brisk northwest flow will grip the area into the weekend with lake effect and orographic rain and snow showers likely over the Northwest Mtns and Laurel Highlands on Saturday. There is still a low risk for coating into Saturday night with accums very hard to come by during the daylight hours this early in the season. 25-35 mph wind gusts will add an additional blustery chill to below normal temps. GFS/EC/CMC all show a fast-moving low diving through the Great Lakes and Northeast into early next week. There is better agreement with this system embedded in the WNW flow aloft passing to the north of the area with max POPs over the far northern tier. This feature will reinforce the cold air aloft at least into Tuesday before strong warm advection commences through midweek. The models show a low near the Great Lakes by the end of the period with some hints a at a cold air damming pattern at low levels with high pressure retreating into New England. Overall not much pcpn expected Mon-Wed. Temperatures will be noticeably colder by the weekend with highs in the low 40s to mid 50s on Saturday. Expect some moderation on Sunday followed by a steady to cooling trend with readings averaging near to below normal through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Updated TAFS a few minutes early, watching showers and storms to the west. Storms may come close to UNV after 22Z. Earlier discussion below. A complex low and frontal system will dictate the weather over the next 2 days. All terminals are VFR as of early afternoon with the warm front having passed up into southern NY. The rain will become more widespread later today along with deteriorating conditions over northwestern areas before slowly progressing eastward this evening into the overnight a the low enters from the Ohio Valley. We will be unstable enough for the possibility of a potent thunderstorm with strong wind gusts along the front, mainly western sections. Overnight and Friday will feature widespread MVFR/IFR developing over the entire region as the wavy slow moving front crawls through the area. Outlook... Sat...Scattered showers with restrictions NW. Brisk NW wind. Sun...No sig wx. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW. Tue...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for PAZ004>006-010- 011-017-024-033-037. && SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte/Martin
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 351 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 PAZ012-018-019-025-026-034-041-045-046-212000- NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON- BEDFORD-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- 351 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITHIN AREAS OF TRAINING AND SHORT DURATION HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE PROBABLE BY THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ042-212000- SULLIVAN- 351 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITHIN AREAS OF TRAINING AND SHORT DURATION HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE PROBABLE BY THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ027-028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-212000- MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND- COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- LANCASTER- 351 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ005-006-010-011-017-024-033-037-212000- MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-TIOGA- 351 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ004-212000- WARREN- 351 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016
PAZ017-202115-
CLEARFIELD PA-
449 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...
AT 448 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANDY TO NEAR NORTHERN CAMBRIA. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SANDY AND DUBOIS AROUND 455 PM EDT.
ROCKTON AROUND 505 PM EDT.
PENFIELD...PARKER DAM STATE PARK AND S.B. ELLIOT STATE PARK AROUND
515 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE LUMBER CITY...
BRISBIN...TROUTVILLE...NEW WASHINGTON AND GRAMPIAN.
LAT...LON 4115 7879 4121 7868 4121 7866 4126 7860
4122 7819 4085 7829 4073 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 239DEG 29KT 4107 7882 4078 7882
DANGELOThe State College radar (KCCX), 30 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:51 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees along the 8500 block of Gillingham Road in Girard Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 80 mph damaged a couple of barns, blew the top off of a silo and damaged or uprooted several trees on a farm north of Ebensburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing straight line winds estimated at 95 to 100 mph knocked down trees onto a home in Lamar Township, causing one fatality.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 70 mph caused widespread damage and knocked down trees and wires in Lock Haven.
Intense heavy rainfall brought flash flooding to Centre County late in the evening on Thursday October 20th, continuing until daybreak on Friday October 21st. Major damage was reported to parts of the area.
Up to eight inches of rain fell in a short time, resulting in evacuations and rescues in low lying areas that were flooded. Threats to water supplies, sewage treatment facilities, road washouts and widespread damage to property and infrastructure occurred.
Centre County issued a Disaster Declaration for this flood. This included the municipalities of Milesburg Borough, Boggs Township (Twp), Spring Twp, Centre Region (State College Borough, Patton Twp, Ferguson Twp, Harris Twp, College Twp and Halfmoon Twp), Union Twp, Liberty Twp, Curtin Twp, Benner Twp and Howard Twp.
The total infrastructure damage as assessed by PEMA and FEMA teams is approximately 2 million dollars.
Over twenty swift water rescue teams (SWRT) responded to the area.|Purdue Mountain Road is closed indefinitely with costly repairs needed to reopen the road.
A bridge on Fariview Road in Boggs Twp was closed due to flood damage. This resulted in a nine mile detour.
The Julian Pike in Patton Twp required three culvert pipes to be replaced before reopening.
Drytop Road in Boggs Twp was repaved with new culvert pipes installed.
Other major roadways impacted include SR144, SR550, SR150 and Business 322.|PENNDOT claimed at least 150K in damage to roadways.
The Bald Eagle School District was closed on Friday. Park Forest Middle School in the State College School District was flooded and closed for several days. An estimated 275K in damages occurred at the school.
The SEDA-COG, Nittany Bald Eagle Railroad, and North Shore Railroad suffered damage from bridge and culverts being washed away. The estimated costs is 350K with 150K being eligible from claims according to FEMA damage assessment.
There is also an agricultural impact. The region was in a state declared drought and the soil was not stable. Widespread severe soil erosion and debris flow was deposited on crops and fields.
See: http://www.centredaily.com/news/local/community/bald-eagle/article115021138.html .
During the early morning hours of October 21st a frontal system brought intense rainfall which led to flash flooding in part of Sullivan County. Over eight inches of rain fell across the headwaters of Mill Creek, Elk Creek and the Hoagland Branch.
The storm damage occurred in three townships, Hillsgrove, Elkland and Fox.
The flash floods destroyed three primary residences and 14 seasonal structures. |State Route 87 remains closed until a bridge can be replaced. The bridge goes over Mill Creek at Hillsgrove, one of the major highways used in the County.
Elk Creek Road is closed due to a bridge washout.
Hoagland Branch Road is closed due to inaccessibility over a 2.5 mile stretch of roadway. The road is closed between Elk Creek Road to about three miles north. Several cabins are now isolated. Damages to this road alone are estimated to cost over one million dollars.
The bridge over State Route 4001 (Elk Creek Road) needs to be repaired (early 2017 completion target).
State Route 4010 (Hoppestown Road) is closed with repairs anticipated to be completed by the end of the year.
Emergency management estimated the damage for public assistance is over two million dollars. Damage to state forest and PENNDOT roads and bridges is even greater.
Flood and debris damage at junction of small streams into Hoagland Branch, Elk Creek and Mill Creeks in the western townships of Sullivan County was as follows: Fox Twp $1,383,748; Elkland Twp $234,434.00; Hillsgrove Twp $294,927.87.
Primary Residence damage (3 buildings) $399,100.00.
Seasonal Residence damage (14 structures) $620,000.00.
The Sullivan County Rural Electric Co-op lost numerous poles and lines. Repair costs estimated at $90,000.00.
Heavy rainfall brought flash flooding to parts of Lycoming County during the early morning hours of Friday, October 21st. The Loyalsock and Lycoming Creek watersheds were most heavily impacted. The flooding destroyed or seriously damaged multiple State and local roads and bridges. Over twenty primary residence homes were either destroyed or sustained major damage. Many camps and seasonal homes were also damaged or destroyed along Pleasant Stream, Wallis Run and Slacks Run.
An 8 inch liquid petroleum line was also damaged along the Loyalsock Creek and posed a significant environmental impact.
Multiple state and municipal roads and bridges were impacted. For several days after the rain McIntyre, Gamble and Cascade Townships had locally isolated areas with long delays or limited access. Many of these roads have undergone at least temporary repairs.
Wallis Run Road, Field Station Road, Upper Bodines Roads are temporarily closed with detours. At least three state bridges were destroyed and awaiting repair.|A historic municipal stone arch bridge over Pleasant Stream in McIntyre and Lewis Townships was destroyed. This impacts accessibility into the community of Marsh Hill. Another municipal bridge over Potash Hollow Run was destroyed. There were 20 other municipality owned bridges damaged.
A large earth slide near the junction of Wallis Run Road and Buttermut Grove Road caused a road closure.
There were agricultural impact. Totals from the Lycoming County Soil Conservation Service District Office show Corn Grain loss was 70 acres at a $35-40,000 total loss. Grain loss for beans was 15 acres at a $6,000 total loss. Christmas Tree farms suffered a loss of land and inventory estimated at $400,000. The Lycoming Consolidated Sportsman’s fish hatchery suffered $18-20,000 in losses.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind, Clinton | 2016-10-20 | 63 | Male | Permanent Home | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 656868, 658584, 656869, 656870, 660372, 660375, 660387.