Hail in Pennsylvania, June 21, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front across the region this evening will move to the east
overnight. An area of high pressure will prevail across the area
wednesday. Low pressure and another series of fronts will affect the
area late Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure will
return for Friday and persist through the weekend. A cold front will
approach from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms covered much of northeastern Maryland,
Delaware and southern New Jersey at mid afternoon. Some of the
thunderstorms were producing severe weather and the area remains
under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 900 pm. The convection
should continue to work its way off the coast during the balance of
the afternoon and early evening hours. As a result, we should be
able to remove some additional counties from the watch during the
next few hours.

Meanwhile, the sky remained mostly sunny over our northern counties
where dry air has taken hold in the developing west to northwest
flow.

A clear to partly cloudy sky is expected for tonight after the last
of the convection passes off the coast this evening. There may be
some patchy fog in areas that received rain today.

Minimum temperatures should be in the 50s in our far northern
counties and in the 60s elsewhere with a light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A mid level short wave trough is expected to pass over New York
State on Wednesday morning, reaching New England in the afternoon.
It may bring some clouds to our far northern counties, otherwise it
should have little impact on our region. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will likely build into our forecast area from the west.

We are anticipating dry weather conditions for Wednesday with highs
mostly in the 80s. A west wind around 10 to 15 mph may gust to 20 or
25 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wed night thru Thu night...This looks to be the more active part of
the long term. Another low pressure system will emerge from the
plains stares and head across the Great Lakes. The low will then
move across PA/NY on Wed. The abundance of warm/humid air on the
south of the low and the associated fronts will produce another
round of showers/tstms beginning across the wen areas late wed night
and then spreading across the entire area Thu. Severe weather is a
strong possibility with the SPC Day 3 outlook now showing 1/2 the
area (Srn) in an outlook. The weather will end from w to e through
the night Thu. A briefing package has been already sent to highlight
this weather and the HWO will also have mention of it. Temperatures
this period mostly near normal.

Fri thru Sun...A mostly dry period with high pressure returning to
the area. If the system is a bit slower to clear, there may be some
lingering showers during the morning across the ern areas.
Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Fri, rising to above
normal by Sun.

Sun night thru Tue...Plenty of uncertainty, but the ridge across
the area will be waning and a h5 trough will be progressing
towards the area. A cold front should cross the area early next
week. We stuck with the chc pops that were in there, since it
matches well with nearby offices. Temperatures will be above
normal with mid/upper 80s for highs Mon and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KILG,
KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE and KRDG. The only exception may be some MVFR
visibility restriction around daybreak on Wednesday.

The showers and thunderstorms that were affecting KMIV and KACY at
mid afternoon should be off the coast by 2200Z. Mainly VFR
conditions are anticipated after that time, again with the potential
of some MVFR visibility restrictions late tonight and early on
Wednesday morning.

A west to northwest wind at 5 to 10 knots into this evening should
become light and variable for tonight. A west wind at 10 to 15 knots
is forecast to develop for Wednesday. The wind may gust to 20 or 25
knots at that time.

outlook...
Wed night thru thu night...Showers and Tstms may bring lower
 cigs/vsbys thru the period. Svr tstms possible from the Delaware
 valley and areas south.
Fri thru Sun...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
We have adjusted the Small Craft Advisory. We are no longer
anticipating wind gusts in excess of 25 knots except near
thunderstorms into this evening. However, the southwest to south
fetch may cause waves on our ocean waters to build near 5 feet for a
time. As a result, we have posted a Small Craft Advisory for seas.
It is in effect from our waters off Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick
Island until 900 am Wednesday.

outlook...
wed night thru thu night...Mostly sub-sca conditions. Some low end
 SCA seas across the srn waters Wed night and Thu. Tstms with
 local higher winds and seas expected.
Fri thru Sun...Mostly sub-sca conditions with fair weather.

RIP CURRENTS:

An eastern swell with an 8 to 10 second period will continue to
create a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
into this evening from Point Pleasant Beach, New Jersey down to
Fenwick Island, Delaware.

We are expecting to lose the easterly swell tonight and the
prevailing swell should be from the south on Wednesday. As a result,
we are anticipating a low risk at that time for the New Jersey shore
and the Delaware Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ451>455.

&&

Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...Iovino/O'Hara
Marine...Iovino/O'Hara

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-017>020-022-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-
101>106-222300-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY THAT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023-222300-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY-
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY THAT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY.

NJZ025-026-222300-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY THAT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

DEZ004-NJZ024-222300-
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY THAT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY.

ANZ430-431-453>455-222300-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY THAT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY.

ANZ450>452-222300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY THAT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
546 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              38.69N  75.39W
06/21/2016                   SUSSEX             DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601287

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
617 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             LEISURE VILLAGE         40.04N  74.18W
06/21/2016  E0.50 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601289

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             WARETOWN                39.79N  74.19W
06/21/2016  E1.00 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601290

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SSE PORT NORRIS      38.97N  74.96W
06/21/2016  M81 MPH          CAPE MAY           NJ   WXFLOW

0336 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SSE PORT NORRIS      38.97N  74.96W
06/21/2016  M65 MPH          CAPE MAY           NJ   NOS-NWLON

0450 PM     HAIL             BRICK STORE             39.32N  75.57W
06/21/2016  E0.50 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL LIKE CLOUD WITH WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF HAIL CORE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601291
EVENT NUMBER PHI1601292
EVENT NUMBER PHI1601293

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             TOMS RIVER              39.95N  74.20W
06/21/2016  E0.50 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601294

STAFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
709 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NJZ009-010-012-013-015-019-020-PAZ071-103>106-220000-
OCEAN-SOMERSET-WESTERN
MONMOUTH-HUNTERDON-MERCER-MIDDLESEX-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-WESTERN
MONTGOMERY-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-UPPER BUCKS-
709 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AT 708 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER RICHBORO...OR 14 MILES
WEST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHILADELPHIA...TRENTON...BENSALEM...EWING...LANSDALE...PRINCETON...
FLORENCE...BURLINGTON...BRISTOL...DOYLESTOWN...BYRAM...HATBORO...
BEDMINSTER...AMBLER...HIGHTSTOWN...CHALFONT...BORDENTOWN...
CRANBURY...PENNINGTON AND NEW HOPE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4015 7531 4045 7521 4034 7445 4005 7451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 277DEG 40KT 4024 7502

LF